Monday, January 16, 2017

Reflections on the 2016-2017 NFL Season

Let's start off by saying how this year defied all expectations. From the Patriots finishing 14-2, to two rookies leading Dallas to its first number one seed since 2007. We've seen teams that were suppose to dominate be marred by injuries and bad luck, and teams that dug themselves out of very dismal situations. If we have learned anything from this year of football, it is to never underestimated Bill Belichick and have an eye for promising rookies.

Unfortunately for Cowboys fans, their dreams of witnessing a rookie take their team to the Super Bowl have been lost. Ezekiel Elliot rushed for 157 yds and Prescott threw for 3 touchdowns in a 34-31 thriller. Together this season they've broken 5 records. Dak ties Big Ben Roethlisberger for most regular season wins by a rookie, and having the best completion percentage and passer rating of any rookie QB ever! Ezekiel Elliot was the first rookie to lead the NFL in rushing yards, the last was Edgerrin James in 1999. These are stats the rest of the NFL should be terrified of, if the Cowboys can perform this great with, having the best record in the NFC with two rookies, what will they do when Dak and Zeke become veterans with two or three years of refinement and practice. The future looks great for the Cowboys, as the have finally found a true franchise quarterback in Dak Prescott, no disrespect to Tony Romo, who is aging and whose best years are behind him.

As I write this, the New England Patriots are set to meet the Pittsburgh Steelers in Foxborough, where the Patriots could potentially see a fifth Super Bowl. Tom Brady has not lost a step despite Gronkowski being injured. Thankfully, he has new receivers Michael Floyd and Chris Hogan as well as Martellus Bennett who have stepped up fill in those gaps. Edelman still is his number but a quarterback like Touchdown Tom can make it happen with just about anyone. It was anticipated that the Patriots would be 12-4 by the end of the season with Tom Brady suspended and Gronk being out the beginning of the season. Those predictions could not be further from the truth as the Patriots won without Gronk, and while using a second and then a third string QB. If one thing was consistent about the AFC was that no matter what happened, the Patriots kept winning. From this season it seems a little clearer the direction of the Patriots when Brady does inevitably retire. Garoppolo has done a tremendous job in his first three starts, Gronkowski won't be going anywhere, and still has at least five more years of play time left. Along with some improvement to the receiver corps, which will certainly happen under Belichick, the Patriots will fair good without Brady, although, it will be a sad day indeed.

This season has a little bit of everything for veteran fans of football as well as new comers to the sport. We saw a proven star excel in Tom Brady and the Patriots, and we saw two rookies drive for greatness in what is perhaps the greatest season for the Cowboys in fifteen years. There was great showcases for new teams who never really got much of the spotlight, such as the Raiders and the Dolphins. Although, these teams in the end did not succeed, it is good to see new competitors rise above dismissal. It is a shame to see the Panthers and Cardinals perform so poorly this year after breakout performances the year before, with both teams reaching the NFC Championship. Hopefully, the rise of the Cowboys and the Packers will be a game changer for the NFC. As this year as shown us, anything can happen. Teams can and will rise above criticism, and overhype can be dangerous if a team cannot live up to monumental expectations.

Thursday, January 12, 2017

MLB Fantasy Rankings 2017: Catchers

The sweet feeling of joy is starting to warm in the air, as pitchers and catchers are slatted to start reporting towards the middle of February, leaving the baseball community with about four more weeks of anxiously twiddling our thumbs. Position players report shortly after, and teams have full squads by the end of February as all 30 team prepare for their respective spring training schedules, either in the Grapefruit or Cactus League. Both leagues are made of an assorted mix of American and National league teams, breeding a more friendly interleague feel and frenzy, much more apparent than during regular season games. With teams slowly easing pitchers back into routines to adjust arm strength and durability, and position players lock in their pitch recognition and timing at the plate, many in the fantasy baseball business look out for any alarming or startling news during the month of March to adjust their predictions and preferred draftees for the upcoming fantasy season. With baseball only on the upswing from here, it's noteworthy and creeping up to be that time of year where positional rankings and projections can start to be drawn out and mapped. With each position sure to get plenty of attention, things will be jump started by perhaps the most important position on the diamond: catchers.

When looking at positional rankings and projections, defensive prowess and ability are not taken into account due to the fact that most fantasy leagues only account for offensive statistics.

For the most part, both American and National league players are included in most draft pools, unless certain leagues are marked American or National league players only, in which case drafters are only allowed to select from the respective league. As each season is full of offensive outbursts and surprises (see: Gary Sanchez and Sandy Leon), there is just as fair a share of disappointments and unforecasted injuries (see: Kyle Schwarber and Yan Gomes). 

With the 2017 season just on the brink of breaking the horizon, it's time to jump into catcher rankings for the upcoming season. 

1. Buster Posey SF 
2016 Stats: .288/.362/.434, 14 HR, 80 RBI, 82 R, 64 BB
2017 Projections: .299/.370/.454, 19 HR, 94 RBI, 75 R, 68 BB

Posey is the most likely candidate to lead in at-bats and plate appearances of any qualified catcher, meaning that he has the greatest chance to rack up the most overall fantasy points. Primed to sit in the clean up spot, and with Denard Span, Joe Panik, and Brandon Belt hitting just ahead of him, Posey definitely has an above average chance at collecting at least 80 RBI's, As long as he stays healthy and fresh, and especially with manager Bruce Bochy rotating Posey between catcher and first base as he ages, Posey, still only 30 years old, has all the makings of an elite bat at the position. Coming off his lowest single season average (.288), look for him to rebound in the Bay Area and put up his old stats and regain his all-star form. 

2. Jonathan Lucroy TEX
2016 Stats: .292/..355/.500, 24 HR, 81 RBI, 67 R, 47 BB
2017 Projections: .278/.359/.521, 25 HR, 101 RBI, 77 R, 6 SB

Big John Lucroy came over from the Brewers to the Rangers and pretty much set the entire world on fire last year, hitting a career high 24 HR's after never having eclipsed 18 HR's. A defensively sound catcher, but by far better known for his gifted bat, now in a potent Texas lineup, Lucroy should be primed to set career highs in runs scored, slugging percentage, and perhaps even home runs. One of the best hitting catchers in the MLB, Lucroy should come off the board quick for a position that truly lacks quality depth. Look for a repeat of last years numbers, or maybe even a little more, and don't pass up the opportunity to get arguably the best hitting catcher on the market. It would be smart to be bullish on Lucroy after his last season. 

3. Russell Martin TOR
2016 Stats: .231/.335/.398, 20 HR, 74 RBI, 62 R, 64 BB
2017 Projections: .245/.342/.424, 22 HR, 68 RBI, 54 R, 53 BB

Martin has been a solid contributor behind the plate for the majority of his career, having really peaked when playing for the Pirates in 2014, where he hit .290 and had an OBP of .402, while contributing 5.5 WAR. With a much more depleted Blue Jays lineup, having lost Edwin Encarnacion and looking at the potential exit of Jose Bautista, Martin may have a tougher time knocking in runs, and may be pitched to more precisely with opposing pitching staffs no longer needing to focus on Encarnacion and Bautista has focal points. He has a knack for reading pitches and working counts, while only swinging at pitches that within the strike zone. With Kendrys Morales, Josh Donaldson, and Devin Travis leading the Jays lineup, Martin should have a solid year, but at 33 years old, his days of hitting for 20+ home runs may start becoming a thing of the past. 

4. Salvador Perez KC
2016 Stats: .247/.288/.438, 22 HR, 64 RBI, 57 R, 22 BB
2017 Projections: .259/.301/.443, 21 HR, 75 RBI, 49 R, 27 BB

Perez pretty much hit rock bottom last year with the bat, setting personal worsts in average, hits, and most alarmingly of all, strikeouts. He has never really been relied upon to post anything close to average OBP numbers, but having posted sub-.300 OBP's in three consecutive seasons now, look for the Kansas City staff to really work the kinks out for Perez, who surprisingly is still only 26. Salvy should look to continue supplying above-average power numbers in the home run department, but if there is an ascent in the batting average and OBP areas, this could inversely affect his power numbers while he focuses on his on base abilities. Always known for his superb glove and cannon that caught 48.1% of thefts last season, Perez doesn't look to be slowing down with his catching skills. The real question for fantasy owners is will Perez continue the trend of middling average and OBP numbers, or will he surface as a reliable and top-three fantasy option with stable on-base numbers as a premium power threat. 

5. Kyle Schwarber CHC
2016 Stats: DNP (Did Not Play); injured
2017 Projections: .268/.373/.534. 31 HR, 98 RBI, 92 R, 76 BB

This years diamond in the rough, the needle in the haystack that many have forgotten about; most analysts would probably argue that Schwarber deserves to be higher on the list, but considering he his coming back from almost a year-long lay off after knee surgery, things could conceivably be slow to start for the catcher turned outfielder. While manager Joe Maddon has floated the idea of hitting Schwarber at or near the top of a dangerous Cubs lineup, it is yet to be seen whether his words will translate into actual lineup changes. He undeniably has the makings of a super-star, and his built like that of an NFL linebacker, Schwarber possesses all the necessary tools to put up scary numbers against opposing pitchers. Already a polished bat coming out of the University of Indiana, Schwarber accounted for a .487 slugging percentage in his freshman campaign back in 2015, having hit 16 home runs against major league pitching. The fantasy numbers could be scary, and he easily could be atop the list for best catcher by the end of the 2017 season; it's easy to dream on the numbers Schwarber could post, but it'll take more than an encouraging rookie campaign and world series appearance to prove his ability at the major league level.

6. Gary Sanchez NYY
2016 Stats: .299/.376/.657, 20 HR, 42 RBI, 34 R, 24 BB
2017 Projections: .272/.338/.470, 27 HR, 76 RBI, 70 RBI, 58 BB

What appears to be unsustainable success will attempt to be replicated by one of the more promising young players in the game today, and Sanchez will try to prove pundits wrong, and show that his titanium strength is able to reproduce last seasons numbers. His first full taste of major league action, on top of the blunder of having to lead a faltering pitching staff, Sanchez checked off all the boxes in what can be coined as a eye-opening season for the Yankee backstop. While it's hard to believe Sanchez will be able to come close to posting the numbers he did last season as pitchers have more to go off of now with a scouting report, Sanchez should look nothing short of producing anything less than 20 home runs next season, especially considering he'll be playing half of his games in the hitter friendly confines of Yankee stadium. It's hard to tell if there'll be a significant dip in the OBP department if pitchers jam him in, but Sanchez has the 6'2", 230 lb build to wreck opposing pitchers when they know they've made a huge mistake down the middle of the pipe. 

7. Brian McCann HOU
2016 Stats: .242/.335/.413, 20 HR, 58 RBI, 56 R, 54 BB
2017 Projections: .224/.321/.408, 18 HR, 49 RBI, 41 R, 48 BB

I'm not quite as optimistic about McCann as I am others here on the list. He is a proven veteran that knows how to lead a pitching staff, and certainly crush pitches when he needs to, as he's only posted a sub-20 HR campaign once in his career (he hit 18 HR in 2007). While it maybe safe to assume that McCann will post 20 HR's as likely as it'll be that the sun will come up tomorrow morning, he's been declining ever since he signed his 5-year deal with the Yankees at the tail end of 2013, and will be eased into a more comfortable role with a Houston team that is one of the youngest in the league. Forming something reminiscent to a platoon with lumberjack Evan Gattis, McCann may not see as many at-bats as he's been used to, but on the bright side he will certainly be seeing more days at first base and designated hitter than catcher, and that may breed optimism for some fantasy players looking to buy low on a player with low expectations. This is certainly a see-saw option that could go either way, a backup option may be smart to store away on the bench. 

8. Stephen Vogt OAK
2016 Stats: .251/.305/.406, 14 HR, 56 RBI, 54 R, 35 BB
2017 Projections: .259/.320/.421, 16 HR, 54 RBI, 55 R, 45 BB

A late bloomer, Vogt established himself as an all-star catching option the past two seasons, hitting a combined .256 with 32 big flies, 127 RBI's, and 112 runs scored, all good for six percent above league average. Going into his age 32 season, Vogt is on the wrong side of 30, but still presents fantasy owners with a decent chance of outperforming most of the market at the catcher position, especially considering he swings the stick from the left side, historically providing better numbers against a league that has substantially more right-handed pitchers than left-handed. While he does play in the spacious Oakland Colosseum, Vogt represents a rather sturdy option since entering the league full-time back in 2014. He obviously isn't the best catching option, but can go on prolonged stretches that help fantasy owners breathe a sigh of relief for drafting the catcher. Mid-round talent, don't draft him too high, but definitely don't wait to late for the quality catching option. 

9. Yadier Molina STL
2016 Stats: .307/.360/.427, 8 HR, 58 RBI, 56 R, 39 BB
2017 Projections: .289/.347/.397, 7 HR, 55 R, 32 BB

If there was such thing as a league for defensive standouts and points handed out for blocking balls and pitch framing, Yadi would be the first catcher to come off the board. At 34 years old, Molina is towards the tail end of his career, and has taken a beating having caught at least 100 games in 12 straight seasons. Molina has never been a top fantasy option for power, as he's only hit 20 bombs once in his career (his best offensive year, Yadi hit .315 with 22 HR and 76 RBI), Molina can still be called upon to barrel up the ball and work counts to contribute solid fantasy points. Yadi has safely stayed above the .270 line for six seasons now, and going into his thirteenth year,  the expectations appear to be no different. It is fair to assume Molina will be getting more off days now, and considering he plays in the National league, Molina will not have the advantage of being able to stay in the lineup as the designated hitter. He shouldn't anything near double digit home runs, but if he does, just run with it, but a .280 and above average should be expected from Molina.

10. J.T. Realmuto MIA
2016 Stats: .303/.343/.428, 11 HR, 48 RBI, 60 R, 28 BB
2017 Projections: .278/.309/.414, 14 HR, 58 RBI, 67 R, 23 BB

Definitely one of the better breakout stories in the 2016 season, Realmuto surprised many when he started hitting leadoff as a catcher. His OBP was a product of an inflated average, and with the lack of walks in his early career, if Realmuto doesn't work counts and select his pitches, when the going gets tough, so will the OBP. He's still developing his power at 25 years old, but playing in Miami and they're humungous park, one can't expect a big step up in the power department, but some doubles should stretch in home runs. A versatile and well-rounded athlete, Realmuto padded his record with 12 stolen bases last year, proving to be one of the very few catching options that is quite good on the base paths. Realmuto is young, and if he can attack the holes in his game now, and develop into a credible catcher, the sky is the limit for the former third round pick. 

This'll conclude the list of the current top-ten catching options in the game, we'll be hitting on the other positions to come very soon.

Sunday, January 8, 2017

Hot Stove Off-Season Update January

After the conclusion of the 2016 MLB World Series between the Cleveland Indians, and the Chicago Cubs, much news, as usual, was made of potential offseason moves clubs would make to bolster their respective rosters. A flurry of sprinkles and a scattering of thunderous snowstorms have taken this offseason by storm, with a variety of small and large market moves having taken place.

Former Toronto Blue Jays, and current Cleveland Indians designated hitter Edwin Encarnacion, signed a 3-year $60MM deal with a club option for a fourth year just towards the middle of the winter. Encarnacion, who by many, was pegged to land with the Boston Red Sox as the successor all-time great David Ortiz, was even endorsed by Ortiz himself, but still apparently did not receive an enticing offer from Dave Dombrowski and John Henry's Red Sox.

Less heralded and offensively inferior Dextor Fowler, who to be fair offers an extremely different skill set that potentially suits may teams more than Encarnacions power abilities, found himself a new home by inking a five-year $82.5MM contract with the St. Louis Cardinals. Armed with former silver slugger Matt Carpenter, breakout rookie Aledmys Diaz, and young standouts Stephen Piscotty and Randal Grichuk, Fowler has an impressive core of offensive potential around him to help to continue producing 80+ runs scored and a .340+ OBP in his new Cardinal red uniform.

Rich Hill, Kenley Jansen, and Justin Turner all returned to the Los Angeles Dodgers after testing the free agent market for a few months, and finding a barren landscape of attractive offers, only to be lured back to the Dodgers. Hill, 36, proved not to be a one-year wonder, and replicated his 2015 results to the tune of a 2.12 ERA, while only surrendering 77 hits in just over 110 innings pitched. Jansen, a former minor league catcher, currently possesses a mid-high 90's fastball, paired with a devastating sinker that helped him to land a 5-year $80MM deal as an all-star closer testing the open market. Jansen had perhaps his finest season yet in the senior circuit, registering a 1.83 ERA, 47 saves, a 13.63 K/9, an an eye-popping 0.67 WHIP. Lastly, starting third basemen Justin Turner, on the heels of a 27 HR/90 RBI campaign, aided by his highest WAR (5.0) in his career, was re-signed to a 4-year $64MM deal as well, and finished President of Baseball Operations Christmas shopping of bringing back the three integral members of the Dodgers 2016 playoff run.

Perhaps the icing on the cake of the hot stove season, ace left-hander Chris Sale was traded to the Boston Red Sox for a quartet of exciting prospects, headlined by one of the finest and highest ceiling prospects in minor league baseball, Yoan Moncada. Not to be forgotten, flamethrower Michael Kopech, as well as Luis Alexander Basabe were booked tickets to Chicago alongside Moncada as new members of the Chicago White Sox organization, shedding their red pair of socks, for a darker black pair. Sale brings his usual mid 90's fastball, and sweeping curveball to Boston to face stiffer competition, in a potent Toronto Blue Jays lineup at Roger's Centre, and an always fearsome, long ball oriented Baltimore Orioles lineup, anchored by Chris Davis and Manny Machado. While the move was questionable on many accounts due to Boston's gluttony of quality starting pitchers, it would appear the time is now to go fetch a World Series for the Boston sports franchise that last won the fall baseball classic in 2013 against the St. Louis Cardinals.

With the market for relief pitchers as hot and high as ever, demand all across the game has increased, and as a result, the price tag on players, even bench bats, has hit an all time high. While many teams prioritize swapping salaries for fresh faces and changes of scenery, the better answer may lay wide in the open in the free agent market, where right fielder Jose Bautista has remained stationary all winter long. Most certainly predicted to land with an American League club due to the designated hitter option, Bautista may be looking at the Rangers or Rays as the most likely landing spots to rebuild his offensive profile to better lineup for a longer-term contract next offseason. At the ripe age of 36, age is not on Bautista's side, but with as keen an eye as anyone in the game, and power always an alluring and eye-catching facet of baseball, Bautista may not be nostalgically sitting on the free agent market for much longer.

With pitchers and catchers looking to report towards the tail end of February, baseball is quickly approaching, and is at the time of year when fans start to toss and turn in excitement over baseballs whizzing through the air soon. While the offseason is a fun time to follow and catchup on rosters and team statistics, the real baseball is approaching quickly, and is just as anxious as you and me to get here mightily quick.

Monday, January 2, 2017

What Would Jose Quintana Trade Look Like?

With ace Chris Sale now off the board after being shipped to Boston for a package of enticing prospects, the attention has turned to Sale's former teammate and White Sox workhorse Jose Quintana. White Sox management has apparently declared a complete teardown of the current Chicago team, trading away Sale and right-fielder Adam Eaton for a prized collection of prospects, that now place Chicago in the conversation for one of the best farm systems in the MLB. Speculation has arisen over the possibility of building block and top first basemen Jose Abreu being dealt, as well as late inning ace David Robertson, and former Homerun Derby Champion Todd Frazier. There is a wide consensus that if not now, this tandem of players may be dealt at the upcoming summer non-waiver trade deadline, making for an even more intriguing roster construction for Rick Hahn and co. Having finished at no better than 4th place in the American League Central in the past three seasons, and never eclipsing more than 78 wins during that same period, a full teardown for the White Sox appeared inevitable with the central division growing stronger each of the past couple seasons. White Sox fans may quiver and toss in desperation at the fact of Quintana and Abreu being dealt away just to prolong their drought of becoming a meaningful force in the American League, but the return for such players could certainly make the future as bright as ever for the pale hose. It may be a pipe dream for teams to think about acquiring Jose Quintana, but the fact of reality is if Chris Sale can be shipped off in the span of a couple days of negotiation, Jose Quintana can be dealt in just as short a period of time if the return is right. 

It is very true that teams may never have enough pitching, especially in the rotation, and many teams around the league have a clear need for a top-of-the-rotation arm that obviously will cost a pretty penny, but ensure a quality arm is able to provide ample innings. The Angels, Braves, Astros, and Orioles are just a few teams that for the moment lack a true ace at the top of their rotations; some teams simply don't possess an ace, while others having their bulldogs recovering from injuries. Teams that fit the bill to acquire Jose Quintana have the appropriate crop of talent to fabricate an irresistible offer to the White Sox, but the question becomes who exactly is willing to give up the farm for a proven arm? 

The White Sox will be looking for anything close or near to what they received for Sale, and by no means is Jose Quintana a Chris Sale; Quintana is very good, but Sale is elite, and due to the lack of sturdy, seasoned rotation arms that the White Sox have, an overwhelming offer may need to be presented to the White Sox for them to budge on Quintana. It is worth delving into the effectivity of both Sale and Quintana to help represent what a fair return may be for the White Sox to cash in on. Over Quintana's entire 951 major league innings, he has thus far posted a 3.41 era, while putting up an almost identical 3.47 fip, which would suggest Quintana is neither outperforming his results or experiencing bizarre misfortunes when on the mound. He has walked an average of 2.2 batters per nine innings over his career, which is better than league average, and allows 8.9 hits per nine innings. His overall collection of work is roughly 18% better than the league average pitcher, putting him at or near a respectable no. 2 or 3 starting pitcher. 

Chris Sale, on the other hand, has delivered 1110 innings pitched, and has pitched to the tune of an even 3.00 era, with his fip coming in at 3.06; no outliers appear present, like Quintana he has true talent. Sale sits at 2.1 walks per nine innings, and separates himself drastically from Quintana in the hits allowed department, only having surrendered 7.5 hits per nine innings in his young career thus far. Sale is able to dial his fastball up into the high nineties, with a sweeping slider that helps him to not only keep men off base, but to year-in and year-out fight for the strikeout crown. Over his career, Sale has struck out 10.1 batters per nine innings, but interestingly enough, Quintana, even with his highest average fastball being 2.5 miles per hour slower than Sales, is able to register an exactly identical 10.1 K/9 to Sale's. When looking at the bigger picture, both pitchers throw their fastball over  49% of the time, with their curveball/slider dominating at over 23% of the time, and the change-up for Quintana over 9% (Sale's changeup usage is closer to 21%). Having pitched for the same team, it makes sense that under the same pitching coach, both pitchers have identical repertoires, and pitch usage statistics. At the end of the day, Sale has been 35% better than league average, which is far better than Quintana's 18%. Sale's percentage of total starts that are quality starts is at 74%, as opposed to Quintana's 64%. Sale also has a higher swinging strike percentage (19.6%) to Quintana's numbers (14.7%). Both pitchers received close to identical run-support and ballpark factors, so it would seem that overall Chris Sale has outperformed Quintana simply due to skill. That doesn't take away from the fact that Quintana is a very good pitcher, and the White Sox should still receive a very good return if they are to trade him, but maybe not quite a king's ransom. 

A boat of quality prospects would surely get the job done to acquire Quintana, but observing the return Chicago claimed for Sale, which was headlined by baseballs number one prospect, Yoan Moncada, and top thirty prospect, starting pitcher Michael Kopech, a return for Quintana could be along the lines of two-three top one hundred prospects. If not a single top twenty-five prospect, Hahn could look for a broader collection of talent to collect and wait to mature, but with the outfield situation looking murky in the future, possibly a Cody Bellinger from the Los Angeles Dodgers, or a Clint Frazier from the Yankees, two teams that have been mentioned aside the White Sox, could get a talks started between organizations. Both the Dodgers and Padres have a bright, young group of outfielders in their minor league system, featured by Bellinger and Alex Verdugo with the Dodgers, and Manuel Margot and Hunter Renfroe with the Padres, these could be two organizations that Chicago calls first. Considering how San Diego doesn't appear to be competitive for a few years, as deal for Quintana might not make sense, in that holding onto premium, young talented outfielders could help them to accelerate their path atop the division, rather than acquiring one top pitcher. The Dodgers on the other hand, have had rotation questions for the past couple of years, thanks to Brandon McCarthy undergoing Tommy John Surgery, Clayton Kershaw experiencing an extended absence in the 2016 season, Rich Hill dealing with blister issues, and Hyun-Jin Ryu having groin and elbow injuries, the Dodgers could use a durable starter like Quintana, but have balked at the reported asking price from Chicago. 

It looks unlikely Quintana is dealt this winter, but with demand as strong as ever at the trade deadlines every year, it may be smarter to have a team bet against itself and overpay for a great player, which would work to Chicago's advantage. Quintana is one of baseballs twenty best starters right now, and deserves a great return for morphing into such a luxury. Only time will tell if Chicago will sell high on it's new staff ace, or if a mystery team will pull the trigger on the star columbian pitcher. 

Thursday, December 29, 2016

White Sox Ace Chris Sale Traded; Changes Sox Color

Nearly three weeks ago, it was reported that the Chicago White Sox had officially agreed to trade ace left-hander Chris Sale to the Boston Red Sox in exchange for four minor leaguers. The headliner of the deal was MLB Pipeline's number one ranked overall prospect infielder Yoan Moncada, followed by top five Red Sox farmhand starting pitcher Michael Kopech, as well as throw-in's Luis Alexander Basabe and Victor Diaz. In return, the Red Sox received one of baseball's best starting pitchers, let alone left-handers, in 27-year old Chris Sale.

Sale, is coming off a 2016 season that saw him register a career high in innings pitched (226.2), while delivering ace-like numbers, and ranking second in the American League in strikeouts (233), t-4th in wins (17), 9th in ERA (3.34), and first in complete games (6). For someone with as funky a delivery and as many moving parts as Sale, one would think his success at controlling the strike zone would be spotty at best, but as a starter in the majors, Sale has never allowed more than 51 walks in an entire season. One of the most feared and persistent throwers in the sport, Sale spearheads a Boston rotation that aims to be one of the best in the sports in 2017, challenging the likes of the Cubs and Mets.

The return Rich Hahn and the Chicago White Sox received is nothing short of spectacular, as Moncada has both the attributes and the persona to be the next Robinson Cano of an upcoming wave of young, energetic players. A 21-year old middle infield prospect, Moncada has stormed national headlines since they day Boston signed the Cuban as an international amateur free-agent. Unanimously rated as one of baseballs best young, premier talent, the 6'2", 205 lb machine has been routinely mentioned as an all-world athlete, let alone future-star ball player. Coming in as a somewhat raw teenager, Moncada has taken strides to shore up the holes in his game, from shortening his quick and powerful swing to making better decisions on the base paths. While rotating between single A and double-A for the majority of the 2016 season, Moncada registered a .294/.407/.511 line over 106 games. He would go on to launch 15 bombs, knock in 62, and swipe 45 bags, while being cut down 12 times. The most impressive part of Moncada's aggregate game is his ability to seek out pitches, and not be overly aggressive when facing more and more stringent pitching. On the other side of things, it is unquestioned that Moncada has a good eye, but struck out at an alarming rate when getting a brief cup of coffee with Boston; 12 times in 20 plate appearances, and 124 times in the minors. While very rarely will a player come in to the game with barely anything to work on, and Moncada does have many striking parts to his game which could help him to develop into an offensive juggernaut; the strikeouts could be his achilles heel when separating his floor from his ceiling. Many analysts have referenced Moncada to Seattle Mariners franchise cornerstone Robinson Cano, as both have a similar build and work ethic, Moncada has a long way to come before claiming the title of one of MLB's best players, but projects to be a .280 hitter with 20-25 big fly's per year during his peak seasons at the major league level.

Kopech brings a 105 mph fastball to the table, with a devastating curve that makes for a brilliant one-two punch for a pitcher of his caliber. The question going forward for Kopech and the White Sox is helping to deliver a third pitch that separates Kopech's overall game and solidifies his ability to stick as a rotation candidate in the longterm. Tall, skinny and eager, Kopech has risen through the prospect rankings since being selected in the first round back in 2014, and has amassed 2.60 ERA since being drafted. With 172 strikeouts over 135 innings pitched in his first three years of pro-ball, Kopech has the necessary swing-and-miss stuff to his game that will help him to eventual materialize into a projected middle-of-the-rotation starter, if not fearsome no. 2 behind Jose Quintana in the long run, if Quintana isn't dealt. With the extreme velocity, and the overpowering stuff and movement, Kopech does run into the trouble of locating pitches, and walking too many batters. Some outings will see Kopech permit upwards of five walks, which kills pitch counts and tires bullpens. For Kopechs sake, he, as well as the White Sox coaching know that going forward, and in his development, a large focus will be put on helping him to become a pitcher, and not just a thrower. As seen by Nathan Eovaldi, Yordano Ventura, and Michael Foltynewicz, high-octane gas can be hit if its thrown straight, and all three have posted middling results, even thought they are regarded as some of the hardest throwers in the game today. Chicago will look to groom Kopech into another Chris Sale, in that velocity isn't everything, and by diversifying a pitchers arsenal, and mixing pitches, it can go a long way into making an a formidable big league starter.

So, at the end of the day, the Boston Red Sox gave up the farm to acquire Chris Sale, one of baseballs unheralded and best pitchers, while significantly impacting the longterm future of the organization. Dombrowski already had a rotation that delivered a post-season berth this year, led by American League Cy-Young Rick Porcello, and recently signed ace left-hander David Price, who received a $217 million pact to now pitch as Boston's potential no. 3 starter. The price was always going to be high to get Sale, but the question came down to who was willing to dish out their future for an immediate opening at gaining an easier path to the World Series. White Sox fans should be eccentric, while Red Sox fans should be livid at Dombrowski's gratuitous moves that are proving his disregard for premium bluechip prospects. Boston has benefited in the present in acquiring Sale, and Chicago has helped bolster their longterm infield and pitching situations.

This trade was seen as inevitable for quite sometime, and the makings and conversations of it finally came to fruition. The upcoming season will gently exhibit which team benefited more from this blockbuster deal, and the longterm ramifications both organizations look to face will be studied under a magnifying glass by both fans and the media looking to justify their teams return in this deal. The tables will now turn to see whether fellow-lefty Jose Quintana is dealt this winter as well, and what franchise changing return Rick Hahn and co. may look to fetch in the near future.