Ah Yes, another year of great football, and another year of amazing playoffs.
Or so Roger Goodell would like us to think, with NFL ratings down amidst Coli Kaepernick kneeling, and perhaps a very boring sequence of playoff games. To be real, there were only two close games, Packers v Cowboys and Steelers v Chiefs. As for Chiefs game it was more of a painfully slow game where field goals won the day, and a holding call that made it all the more disappointing. Nevertheless we kept watching and kept seeing blowouts, even in the championship games, which should never happen!
So now we have our contenders to the Superbowl, Patriots and Tom Brady looking for a fifth Superbowl and Matt Ryan and Co. looking for a first. However, I'll explain why the odds are against them.
First, let us look at a bad omen for Matt Ryan. In the last 20 years, all the times an NFL MVP made it to the big game, they lost, all seven of em. Including Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Cam Newton, Kurt Warner....
The NFL MVP if anything is a very bad omen for the Falcons. I know it's not concrete fact, but more of a superstition but looking at the history it stacks up to evidence.
Moreover, We have for the 6th time in Superbowl history of a #1 scoring offense versus a #1 scoring defense, in the Falcons and Patriots respectively. The records are as follows, the number one scoring defense has only won once in 6 games, meaning the #1 defense won 5 out of 1 times. If I were a gambling man I would bet on the defense here. This fact is made even more interesting by the fact Superbowl 48 and 50 were decided by defenses, not offenses.
As for the game itself I would be surprised if it was a blowout, although it has happened before not more than three years ago.
Here is where this game becomes interesting, the Patriots have the number two best scoring offense, not surprising with Lagarette Blount and Tom Brady tearing up the field. Edelman and Hogan dominate any secondary with speed and agility. Gronk is out but Bennett is the next best thing, and they've done great still.
I think the game will be a shootout between two great quarterbacks, but I don't see the Falcons defense coming in clutch, being so new and inexperienced. The Falcons secondary is one half rookies and one half second year pros, with a few veterans in the linebacker core and defensive line. Considering Brady feasted on the Texans and Steelers defense this will be be easier albeit slightly.
The difference maker in this game is of course defense, the Patriots have the dominant defense. We should expect Butler and McCourty to make plays in the deep field, and Hightower and Ninkovich sacking Ryan aplenty. Something Seattle and Greenbay failed to do was pressure Ryan, and they paid the price. I expect the Patriots will just get more stops in on the Falcons, which will mean more possession for Patriots and more points.
Finally, Brady is 2-0 versus bird-themed teams, and 4-0 against the Falcons. He is also 2-0 against Matt Ryan, which tells me the Pats have the Falcons figured out.
I'm not saying the Patriots are guaranteed to win, I am just saying if the history and stats are anything to go by, the Patriots will get number 5. Of course football is a momentum sport and things can change quickly.
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