In what many experts have deemed as one of the weakest free agent crops in sometime, a few dominos have fallen to get the hot stove season burning a bit. It is a feat in and of itself to where free agents will land, but perhaps the more difficult task is pegging a relative average annual value for free agents in the market. There is no doubt this years class has some strong candidates to cash in on a nice payday, and some teams have freed up payroll space for additions, and with the winter meetings creeping just around the corner, now is the perfect time to discuss some big name free agent targets.
Notable Free Agent Predictions:
Yoenis Cespedes - New York Yankees: 5 years $105MM
Entering the league as an international free agent after coming over from the Cuba International Series, at the time, Cespedes was an intriguing talent, but one may probably didn't predict to reach the floor he has. He topped out at 33 homeruns back in 2010, having only played 90 games over in Cuba, while racking up 49 walks to only 40 strikeouts. Undoubtedly, Major League Baseball is the most difficult competitive baseball league in the world, and while Cespedes put up nice, gaudy numbers in Cuba, some were reluctant of his talents, predicting possible a bit of swing-and-miss in his game and low on base numbers, were he to take his talents to the United States. The Oakland Athletics were awarded the winning bid and negotiation rights to Cespedes, and were able to come to a formal agreement with the Cuban prize. The doubters were initially put to bed as Cespedes posted a .292/.356/.505 slash line in his first taste in the majors at his age 26 season. From 2013-2015, Cespedes routinely posted OBP's in the .300-.320 range, while watching his power number diminish in Boston, where he was scrutinized for his lack of commitment in left field, and ultimately traded the following offseason for just announced 2016 American League Cy Young award winner Rick Porcello. Cespedes brings a lot to the table, as he is equipped with a cannon wherever he plays in the outfield, and has lofty power that can help balance out any lineup. His ability to barrel up the ball consistently is one of his most prominent skills, as he won the Homerun Derby back-to-back, and unleashed a 300 foot throw from right field to nab a runner at the plate when playing against the Los Angeles Angels. Cespedes will be worth every penny whatever team spends on him, and Yankee Stadium would not be a bad fit for a player that could see his power numbers rise in the small confines of the Bronx Bombers stadium. Look for him to ultimately choose between the Dodgers, Mets, and Yankees, and with the Yankees having cleared a good bit of money off the books with the Brian McCann trade, and Mark Teixeira retiring, the Yankees will have some funds to spend over the next few years.
Edwin Incarnation - Houston Astros: 4 years $100MM
Probably the most decorated bat on the market this winter, but definitely not the youngest. Encarnacion will be 34 when opening day roles around, but he'll also be coming off a career high 42 homeruns and 127 RBI's and led the Blue Jays to a playoff birth. Considering the market isn't deep with power bats, Encarnacion is a premium slugger and will most certainly come at a high price, as well as the draft pick compensation that is attached to him, thanks to rejecting the one year $17.2MM qualifying offer the Blue Jays issued him. The only discussion about Encarnacion is his bat, which has rated as one of the most powerful sticks in the MLB over the past five years, where he has averaged 39 homeruns a season with 110 RBI's, which equates to roughly 46% better than the league average bat. While Encarnacion is mostly a full time designated hitter, he has played his fair share of first base over the years, and has voiced his desire to play a little more of it for his new team. Encarnacion's value lies solely in his ability to drive in runs and hit for power, and if he loses that ability at any point over the course of his next contract, his value to a team will take a real hit. Some around the game fear signing Encarnacion due to the fact that he's on the wrong side of 30, and his numbers have been slightly declining over the past couple years; as his strikeouts have risen, his average has been trending in the wrong direction, and he's one dimensional. The likelihood early on was that the Boston Red Sox would be the most obvious fit on paper for Encarnacion after the retirement of future Hall of Fame David Ortiz was announced, but reports have turned the light towards the Sox attempting to sign DH/OF Carlos Beltran to a short term deal, rather than dishing out mad dough for an aging slugger. The Yankees could also be a dark horse on this one, considering the fact that they've shed a decent amount of salary obligation over the past year, and the opening at designated hitter, General Manager Brian Cashman could strike a deal with EE. The Astros could also look to cash in on Encarnacion, and offer a lucrative atmosphere for Encarnacion to flourish in, as the team is built to contend for the next patch of years to come.
Mark Trumbo - San Fransisco Giants: 4 years $85MM
Much like Encarnacion, Trumbo is coming off a career year, but is also a one dimensional player by trade. His power is undeniable, but some may attribute that to the Baltimore environment evolving sluggers into stardom in the most recent years. Trumbo is only 30, and has the ability to play first base and the corner outfield, but many would argue the best decision for him would be to stay in the American League and lockdown a full time designated hitter gig. As has been for the past three seasons, a Baltimore Oriole has led the majors in homeruns, with Trumbo leading the way this year and launching 47 homeruns, to go along with 108 RBI's and 94 runs scored. Most would attribute a power hitter to being a patient and disciplined hitter, but Trumbo has accumulated a reputation for being a free swinger and carrying a below average OBP throughout his career as well. While Trumbo did slug .533, his overall production came out to be roughly only 20% better than league average, which would seem a little misleading for a player that led the MLB in homeruns. The fact of the matter is that Trumbo provides power, and that's pretty much as far as the eye can see. From an OPS+ standpoint, Trumbo did not have his best year in the majors, but teams are so hungry for power that Trumbo is the only real alternative to power besides Encarnacion. Trumbo could stick with the Orioles, who most recently dished out money to keep star first basemen Chris Davis, who is coming off a dreadful year, but the Orioles may prioritize keeping Trumbo's bat in the lineup for years to come. The Reds could also be in the hunt for a power bat; besides Joey Votto and Homer Bailey, the Reds don't have a lot of cash tied up longterm in other players, and could certainly afford a little more power in a very weak lineup. Ultimately, if the Giants don't land Yoenis Cespedes, look for them to switch gears and maybe go the route of Trumbo, would could play a corner outfield spot, or shift Brandon Belt from first to the outfield.
Rich Hill - New York Yankees: 3 years $55MM
This is probably the most interesting option on the free agent market, as Hill put up some of the best stats in the league for a full time starting pitcher, while at the same time resurrecting his career over the past year and a half. He's not like Yordano Ventura who throws triple-digit heat, or Max Scherzer who goes seven plus innings each time out. Rich Hill is a different breed of animal, as he has learned to mix a high 80's fastball with a killer slider and curveball, that have helped to make him unpredictable to opposing batters. Hill only averaged 5.5 innings per start this year, and missed a good chunk of starts due to a blister on his pitching hand, but while he was healthy, he was undeniably one of the best pitchers in the MLB. He finished the year with the Dodgers, being traded alongside Josh Reddick from the Oakland Athletics. Hill was already making a name for himself with the Athletics, having pitched to a 2.25 ERA over 14 starts with a 9-3 record, but after being acquired by the Dodgers, he was able to spin out a 1.83 ERA and gave up only 5.8 hits per 9 innings. Hill worked with Red Sox pitching coordinator Brian Bannister to bring his career back to life after pitching in the Independent League with the Long Island Ducks, and whether it be his impecciable control, or the revolutions per minute that he has learned to add to his curveball, Hill has morphed into a must have starting pitcher. While he was 87% better than league average last year, he is 36 years old and on the latter half of his career. While his new team will surely want to make sure all health issues are worked out coming into the 2017 season, look for Hill to continue putting up league-wide dominating numbers. A return to the Dodgers shouldn't be knocked out, as the Dodgers always have funds available to give to premiere talent, word has it they are slowly attempting to inch back to getting underneath the tax threshold, but after losing out on Zach Greinke to the Diamondbacks last year, Andrew Friedman and Co. may be more motivated to keep Hill. The Yankees could be the other fit, as pretty much their entire rotation has questions of uncertainty. Masahiro Tanaka has been pitching through a partially torn Ulnar Collateral Ligament, C.C. Sabathia has had knee troubles, Nathan Eovaldi has been non-tendered and was set to be out for the 2017 season due to Tommy John/Flexor-tendon surgery, and Michael Pineda will look to deliver a full season's worth of starts.
Aroldis Chapman - Chicago Cubs: 5 years: $100MM
The likelihood here is that Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer are going to try to hold onto the prized flamethrower they gave up so much for. Gleyber Torres wasn't an easy swallow for Epstein and Co., but considering the need that had arisen at the time, the price was just right to initiate and complete a deal. Chapman had the highest fastball velocity of his career this past season, being clocked on average at 100.38 mph, which is by far the fastest in the MLB. He's only 28 years old, and has thrown a combined 377 innings over the past 7 years, this should be an ultimate bidding war for one of the best relief aces in baseball. Chapman mixes a low 90's slider in with his blazing fastball, and certainly generates enough swing-and-misses, as he struck out 90 batters over 58 innings this year. His walks per nine innings were down to a career best 2.8, and he was measured at 173% better than league average this past year. Chapman did have to overcome some control issues in the playoffs, but as far as the regular season goes, he was as dominant as anyone not named Andrew Miller. Chapman could return to the Yankees, who have money to spend, and could reunite Chapman with Dellin Betances at the backend of Joe Girardi's bullpen. Chapman could also stick with Chicago, especially considering the amount of talent Epstein surrendered for a late inning reliever. A dark horse could emerge as the San Fransisco Giants, who are losing Sergio Romo and Santiago Casilla, and currently have Derek Law installed as their closer. Chapman would be an interesting fit in Bruce Bochy's Giants bullpen; look for Brian Sabean to perhaps pull a trick out of his hat.
