Ah Yes, another year of great football, and another year of amazing playoffs.
Or so Roger Goodell would like us to think, with NFL ratings down amidst Coli Kaepernick kneeling, and perhaps a very boring sequence of playoff games. To be real, there were only two close games, Packers v Cowboys and Steelers v Chiefs. As for Chiefs game it was more of a painfully slow game where field goals won the day, and a holding call that made it all the more disappointing. Nevertheless we kept watching and kept seeing blowouts, even in the championship games, which should never happen!
So now we have our contenders to the Superbowl, Patriots and Tom Brady looking for a fifth Superbowl and Matt Ryan and Co. looking for a first. However, I'll explain why the odds are against them.
First, let us look at a bad omen for Matt Ryan. In the last 20 years, all the times an NFL MVP made it to the big game, they lost, all seven of em. Including Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Cam Newton, Kurt Warner....
The NFL MVP if anything is a very bad omen for the Falcons. I know it's not concrete fact, but more of a superstition but looking at the history it stacks up to evidence.
Moreover, We have for the 6th time in Superbowl history of a #1 scoring offense versus a #1 scoring defense, in the Falcons and Patriots respectively. The records are as follows, the number one scoring defense has only won once in 6 games, meaning the #1 defense won 5 out of 1 times. If I were a gambling man I would bet on the defense here. This fact is made even more interesting by the fact Superbowl 48 and 50 were decided by defenses, not offenses.
As for the game itself I would be surprised if it was a blowout, although it has happened before not more than three years ago.
Here is where this game becomes interesting, the Patriots have the number two best scoring offense, not surprising with Lagarette Blount and Tom Brady tearing up the field. Edelman and Hogan dominate any secondary with speed and agility. Gronk is out but Bennett is the next best thing, and they've done great still.
I think the game will be a shootout between two great quarterbacks, but I don't see the Falcons defense coming in clutch, being so new and inexperienced. The Falcons secondary is one half rookies and one half second year pros, with a few veterans in the linebacker core and defensive line. Considering Brady feasted on the Texans and Steelers defense this will be be easier albeit slightly.
The difference maker in this game is of course defense, the Patriots have the dominant defense. We should expect Butler and McCourty to make plays in the deep field, and Hightower and Ninkovich sacking Ryan aplenty. Something Seattle and Greenbay failed to do was pressure Ryan, and they paid the price. I expect the Patriots will just get more stops in on the Falcons, which will mean more possession for Patriots and more points.
Finally, Brady is 2-0 versus bird-themed teams, and 4-0 against the Falcons. He is also 2-0 against Matt Ryan, which tells me the Pats have the Falcons figured out.
I'm not saying the Patriots are guaranteed to win, I am just saying if the history and stats are anything to go by, the Patriots will get number 5. Of course football is a momentum sport and things can change quickly.
Sunday, February 5, 2017
Super Bowl Sunday Standoff
It's that time of year again, when all eyes are glued to the 1080p HD flatscreen TV people of all kind have instilled in their homes. Whether it be at the local tavern, the confines of your moms basement, or the lively atmosphere of NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas, we are all football fans today. Historic viewership ratings rain in on this annual fiasco, and glorified and bold new commercial ads are launched during the Super Bowl, with 30 second ads being aired for a brisk five million dollars, with each second registering in at $166,666. But, none of us are here to talk about the commercials, today is a day to rejoice and pick a side, and hope the your bet turns out to be the one on top.
The New England Patriots (14-2) are seeking their franchises fifth Super Bowl victory, and their first since 2015, when they swiftly defeated the Seattle Seahawks in the final seconds, edging out Russell Wilson, Marshawn Lynch and the Legion of Boom 28-24. Tom Brady himself is looking to make up for his two Super Bowl losses to the New York Giants by burying Matt Ryan and the Falcons this evening, in what will feature the NFL's two highest scoring offenses. Since returning from his Deflate Gate four game suspension, Brady's offense has averaged over 30 points per game, while inflating LeGarrette Blount's 18 rushing TD's and Julian Edelman's 1,106 receiving yards this season. The Patriots offense has been nothing short of excellent, spearheaded by Brady himself, throwing 28 TD's to only two interceptions, completing 67.4% of his passes, which is all good for an elite 82.8 QBR. New England scored (441) and averaged per game (27.6) the third most points in the league this season, only trailing New Orleans and Atlanta. New England ranked seventh overall in rush yards per game with 117.0, but were outdone by Atlanta, who ranked fifth overall for a mere three and a half more yards (120.5) per game.
On the flip side of the things, New England has drastically distanced itself from Atlanta in terms of defensive artistry, ranking eighth in the league total yards given up all season, while Atlanta sits at twenty-fifth. New England was the best in the league in limiting opposing offenses from not only reaching the red zone, but crossing the goal line; the Patriots halted opponents to 15.6 points scored per game, which was two points better than the second best team in the league, the New York Giants. Atlanta once again sits at the bottom of the pile, ranking twenty-seventh and allowing 25.4 points per game this season.
The Atlanta Falcons (11-5) offensively sit as the most heralded and complete offense in football this season. Yes, Tom Brady is craft and quite good, but many would argue that 2017 NFL MVP Matt Ryan unseated Brady for best performing quarterback this season. Ryan, 31, and a former Boston College product, passed for 4,944 yards, 38 TD's to seven interceptions, completed 69.9% of his attempts, and edged Brady out for a better QBR of 83.1. Ryan was helped by top-three league wideout Julio Jones, who is dealing with torn tendons in his foot in the playoffs, thus somehow put up 180 receiving yards and two touchdowns last game against the Packers. Jones caught 83 balls for 1,409 yards and 6 TD's, marking himself as one of the elite players in the NFL. The Atlanta offense remained balanced with Devonta Freeman leading the charge at running back, and breaking tackles and ankles this year for 1,079 rushing yards to go along with 11 rushing TD's. This offense ranked first in points for (33.8), third in passing yards per game (295.3) and fifth in rushing yards per game, good enough to be championed the best offense in the league this season.
Head Coach Bill Belichick will have his hands full today with Atlanta's offense, as Malcom Butler and Logan Ryan will look to hold down opposing star receivers Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu Sr. Vic Beasley (15.5 sacks) will look to apply pressure to Brady and keep points off the board in hopes of a Super Bowl 51 victory, which would be the second ever Super Bowl victory for the Falcon's franchise.
It doesn't take a genius to know this will be a hard fought battle, with most players having lingering to severe injuries they will grit through just to put the team on their back for this last game of the season. Atlanta brings the high-powered caliber offense, with a copious amount of weapons to keep the Patriots guessing, but New England brings the better than expected defense that will look to claim them yet another championship under the tutelage of team owner Robert Kraft.
As of 2:30 p.m. on Super Bowl sunday, ESPN has New England at a 55.6% chance to take home the hardware, countered by Atlanta's 44.4% chance. The spread is also -3 in New Englands favor, with the over/under sitting at 58, as analysts have suspected and projected through the published over/under that this will be a rather high scoring contest between the two potent offenses.
Super Bowl 51 Prediction: New England 31, Atlanta 38
The New England Patriots (14-2) are seeking their franchises fifth Super Bowl victory, and their first since 2015, when they swiftly defeated the Seattle Seahawks in the final seconds, edging out Russell Wilson, Marshawn Lynch and the Legion of Boom 28-24. Tom Brady himself is looking to make up for his two Super Bowl losses to the New York Giants by burying Matt Ryan and the Falcons this evening, in what will feature the NFL's two highest scoring offenses. Since returning from his Deflate Gate four game suspension, Brady's offense has averaged over 30 points per game, while inflating LeGarrette Blount's 18 rushing TD's and Julian Edelman's 1,106 receiving yards this season. The Patriots offense has been nothing short of excellent, spearheaded by Brady himself, throwing 28 TD's to only two interceptions, completing 67.4% of his passes, which is all good for an elite 82.8 QBR. New England scored (441) and averaged per game (27.6) the third most points in the league this season, only trailing New Orleans and Atlanta. New England ranked seventh overall in rush yards per game with 117.0, but were outdone by Atlanta, who ranked fifth overall for a mere three and a half more yards (120.5) per game.
On the flip side of the things, New England has drastically distanced itself from Atlanta in terms of defensive artistry, ranking eighth in the league total yards given up all season, while Atlanta sits at twenty-fifth. New England was the best in the league in limiting opposing offenses from not only reaching the red zone, but crossing the goal line; the Patriots halted opponents to 15.6 points scored per game, which was two points better than the second best team in the league, the New York Giants. Atlanta once again sits at the bottom of the pile, ranking twenty-seventh and allowing 25.4 points per game this season.
The Atlanta Falcons (11-5) offensively sit as the most heralded and complete offense in football this season. Yes, Tom Brady is craft and quite good, but many would argue that 2017 NFL MVP Matt Ryan unseated Brady for best performing quarterback this season. Ryan, 31, and a former Boston College product, passed for 4,944 yards, 38 TD's to seven interceptions, completed 69.9% of his attempts, and edged Brady out for a better QBR of 83.1. Ryan was helped by top-three league wideout Julio Jones, who is dealing with torn tendons in his foot in the playoffs, thus somehow put up 180 receiving yards and two touchdowns last game against the Packers. Jones caught 83 balls for 1,409 yards and 6 TD's, marking himself as one of the elite players in the NFL. The Atlanta offense remained balanced with Devonta Freeman leading the charge at running back, and breaking tackles and ankles this year for 1,079 rushing yards to go along with 11 rushing TD's. This offense ranked first in points for (33.8), third in passing yards per game (295.3) and fifth in rushing yards per game, good enough to be championed the best offense in the league this season.
Head Coach Bill Belichick will have his hands full today with Atlanta's offense, as Malcom Butler and Logan Ryan will look to hold down opposing star receivers Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu Sr. Vic Beasley (15.5 sacks) will look to apply pressure to Brady and keep points off the board in hopes of a Super Bowl 51 victory, which would be the second ever Super Bowl victory for the Falcon's franchise.
It doesn't take a genius to know this will be a hard fought battle, with most players having lingering to severe injuries they will grit through just to put the team on their back for this last game of the season. Atlanta brings the high-powered caliber offense, with a copious amount of weapons to keep the Patriots guessing, but New England brings the better than expected defense that will look to claim them yet another championship under the tutelage of team owner Robert Kraft.
As of 2:30 p.m. on Super Bowl sunday, ESPN has New England at a 55.6% chance to take home the hardware, countered by Atlanta's 44.4% chance. The spread is also -3 in New Englands favor, with the over/under sitting at 58, as analysts have suspected and projected through the published over/under that this will be a rather high scoring contest between the two potent offenses.
Super Bowl 51 Prediction: New England 31, Atlanta 38
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