As the 2016-2017 NFL regular season proved to be, quite a few teams experienced a game of musical chairs when it came to naming or finding a starting quarterback. In a league where most offensive play is headlined by able quarterbacks escaping the pocket when under pressure and launching sixty yard bombs in the end zone, many of the QB's on this list below will have one common trait: never reaching their potential. All have or had the skills to become the franchise QB for their respective organizations, but a mixture of injuries, stale coaching, poor receiving corps, or underwhelming development at the position have attributed to the plodding growth and evolution of these talent game callers. This list below is purely speculative and subjective criticism for some of the NFL's more statistically disappointing QB's up to this point; who knows, maybe reluctantly one of these guys will be a fresh face on your teams QB depth chart next season.
Chicago Bears - Starter: Jay Cutler Backup: Brian Hoyer, Matt Barkley
The Chicago Bears still have the dreaded contract of cannon armed Jay Cutler, who has completely underwhelmed since being acquired in a blockbuster trade back in 2009. Brian Hoyer looked like the perfect stopgap for a team that was fading quickly, and a bridge between drafting and preparing an NFL prospect, and keeping the team competitive. Hoyer, unfortunately, went down with a broken arm during the season, and Chicago started Cutler until they couldn't anymore. Once Cutler sustained a thumb injury, the starting reigns were handed over to the former unproven USC product Matt Barkley, who overall performed as expected: mediocre. In seven games in relief of Cutler and Hoyer, the Trojan would throw for 1,611 yards, complete 59.7% of his passes, average 7.46 yards per attempt, and top off by threading eight passes for touchdowns, while tossing 14 for interceptions. In the perfect world, Bears head coach John Fox would've had better options than Hoyer and Barkley to start after Cutler, but the more alarming realization should be that when healthy this past year, Cutler put up a 27.8 QBR in his five games he did play. Now, for an NFL Quarterback, a 50 QBR represents the midway point line when it comes to rating his overall performance and poise in the pocket, but Cutler didn't even make it halfway, as he was 22.2 below league average. Big Jay would only throw for 4,000+ yards once in high career, and that was the season that Denver sent him to Chicago for Kyle Orton, and a first round and third pick in the NFL Draft. Also necessary to mention, Cutler has never posted a single season passer rating (out of 158.3) above 93.0 in a single season. After a 2014 season that saw him count $38MM agains the dead salary cap, and 2015 saw him at $29MM, with the upcoming season, Cutler's set to count $2MM against the dead salary cap, and the time has finally come for Cutler to pack his bags, and take his lack of talent elsewhere in the league, or perhaps even up to the CFL where misfit toys and backfires like Cutler can play for fun.
Houston Texans - Starter: Brock Osweiler Backup: Tom Savage
Oh boy, this case just reeks. You can ask NFL guru Chance Eaton and he'll tell you as best as anyone; Brock Osweiler is downright terrible. There hypothetically should be a huge sign near Osweiller that warns all about his inability to scan the field, hold onto the ball way too long, and throw head scratching picks in a bloated secondary where any average NFL QB wouldn't have tossed a pigskin anywhere near. He made encouraging strides in the 2015 season, backing up and filling in for the injured Peyton Manning, where he would register a 61.8 completions percentage, throw 10 TD-6 INT's, and elevate his game to the tune of an 86.4 passer rating. He wasn't perfect, but he was a rookie passer technically, starting for the first real time in his NFL career. Coming off that solid season in Denver, the Houston Texans decided upon the move to offer Osweiler a 4-year $72MM deal to revitalize an offense that had also acquired star RB Lamar Miller. So, to sum it up quickly, Osweiler got completely torched by the league this year, making him look like a kid that should stick to making sand castles in his little sandbox back home. The stats are like nails on a chalk board, and have caused many to cringe back in absolute horror, but Brock completed 59.0% of his passes, threw for 2,957 yards, averaged 5.8 yards per attempt, had a 15-16 touchdown to interception ratio, and for the life of him, couldn't get an offense anywhere but sputtering in the gameday light. I say cut him now! Of course its not that easy, and if it were then you and I would be front office personnel, but with Osweiler set to count $25MM in dead salary cap if released this offseason, its a sure bet he returns to Bill O'Brien's team next season, where the staff will look to help Osweiler transform into at least an average NFL QB, especially considering he gets paid $18MM a season. By all accounts, stay away from him in fantasy leagues, and I would urge you not to watch his games played as his pure ghastly and unspeakable play will most likely cause you to gag, and did I mention it's contagious?
Cleveland Browns - Starter: Robert Griffin III Backup: Cody Kessler, Josh McCown, Kevin Hogan
These guys completely abused the privilege of having a QB in the first place, as they went through four different passers during the past season. RG3 is going to fall into the same group as Cutler; he had the makings of an elite QB scrambling option with as strong as anyone in the league, and even at the time of being drafted, was proclaimed as some as the safer bet to have a successful longterm NFL career than Colts QB Andrew Luck. Well, time would prove those optimistic comments where unfortunately wrong, and not wrong by a small amount, those expectations are completely irrelevant and too much to ask for at this point in RG3's career. Now yes, he did suffer a horrific ACL tear, and he was on point up until that injury, but the guy should at least know how to thread the needle and deliver strikes to receivers on a regular basis if he is no longer capable of breaking out monstrous runs. We've got a meltdown alert here, as Griffin was no better this season, where his QBR was 7.8 below average, and he was only able to throw two TD passes in five games played. The real guy to have watched for in this nightmare of a year for Browns fans was Kody Kessler, yet another former USC product. He completed 65.6% of his passes, averaged 7.08 yards per attempt, and threw six TD's to only two interceptions, while coming in at a 92.3 passer rating. Hey, Hue Jackson, I think we've found the guy! Kessler set fire in his last in the NCAA, throwing 29 darts for TD's, completing 66.8% of his passes, and racking up 3,536 passing yards. Development for a QB isn't a one and done, and keeping Josh McCown on the roster may work to both Kessler and the Browns advantage when it comes down to reaching full potential for Kessler. McCown is a storied, knowledgable and successful QB, and with that he is more than capable of showing Kessler how to maximize his potential and become a successful starting QB in the NFL. Unless they draft another QB in this years draft, odds are Kessler will come into next season with the starting his to lose, so look for some improvements on his part, and on the 1-15 Browns part as well.
New York Jets - Starter: Ryan Fitzpatrick Backup: Bryce Petty, Geno Smith, Christian Hackenberg
Already written off as a wasted pick, we'll hit right off on Hackenberg as multiple personnel within the Jets organization have no faith in "Hack" developing as such was projected. But, in 2015, Fitzpatrick was a ray of sunlight the Jets really wish had returned this past season, as Fitz helped Brandon Marshall put up a career season and help resurrect a sputtering Jets offense. He would throw 31 TD's to 15 INT's, and was good for a 66.7 QBR, which put him up as one of the better QB's in the league at the time. For much of his career, Fitzpatrick has been a place holder QB for a lot of teams; six teams to be exact, and never lasting more than four season with anyone of them. This past year though was the ultimate disaster for Fitzpatrick, most directly highlighted by his six interception game against the Kansas City Chiefs, where he was bad enough to completely only 20 of his 44 attempts and finish that game out with a 5.0 QBR. That game pretty much summed up how Fitzpatrick's entire season would go on, but he would sprinkle in a few encourage starts in between his mess of a year. Only signed to a one-year deal this past offseason, it's obvious Fitzpatrick won't be coming back, and if he'll be coming back to any NFL team next season. Interestingly, Fitz never threw more than 2 TD passes in a game this past season, as opposed to him throwing three or more TD passes in a game three separate times in his highlight 2015 season with Gang Green. Most, if not all competent NFL front office personnel would see that the Jets have to start over from block one with the QB crew they have, as Fitzpatrick and Geno Smith will be leaving as free agents this upcoming offseason, and Hack will remain as dead weight on a team that desperately searches for their future franchise passer. Not to be forgotten, fill in Bryce Petty suited up for some games this past year, losing all but one of his six starts, winning over the San Fransisco 23-17 in overtime, in what was probably Petty's best performance of the season. Petty completed 56.4% of his passes, and tossed seven interceptions in his six games played. It's hard to put a finger on any of the current Jets QB's leading the charge for the team in the future, so a different crew of game callers is expected to be called in next year in hopes of a better result than their 5-11 record this past seaosn.
There's no doubt the NFL is a hard league to play in, as it is the best stage for players with skills to compete at on all of Earth. There will be great turnaround for many teams this offseason in hopes of finding a better and more durable option at the QB position, especially considering the position demands such leadership and determination skills that it is intrinsic to have at least a league average QB in hopes of putting up a .500 season. Soon enough, we'll be looking at all other positions on the field and identifying the strengths and weaknesses for teams at each spot coming up over the offseason.
Thursday, January 19, 2017
Wednesday, January 18, 2017
Slugger Jose Bautista Agrees to 1-year $18MM Deal Returning to Blue Jays
Wednesday January 18th - This just goes to show how anemically slow the market has developed for Bautista and other power threats on the open market this winter. Originally looking to lock in a deal in excess of 4 years and $100MM reportedly, Bautista had to settle on the fact that he wasn't going to get the long term deal he had rightfully so looked to demand after putting together 249 homeruns, a .387 OBP, 542 SLG, and 151 OPS+, better than 51% of the league over the span of 2010-2016.
It's a bit surprising in the sense that Bautista had to wait this long to find work from an employer, but it would appear the market has officially set its price and standard for one dimensional power sluggers in a day and age where homerun hitters are becoming more of a common thread. There's no argument that at the age of 36, the right fielder still brings a thundering bat that even in a down year last season, sported a .217 isolated slugging percentage, which is drastically better than the .140 league average.
It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that time is, and was not, on Bautista's side when testing the waters this winter. Seeking a lucrative deal before the 2016 season even began, injuries soured Bautista's season and inevitably blocked his earning power this winter. Many experts had predicted he would have to settle for a one year deal to build back up his case for a long term pact from the right organization, but the clock is ticking, and Bautista is running out of time to turn skeptics into believers.
Edwin Encarnacion, a teammate of Bautista last year and since 2009, equally saw his case stunned and pushed back due to the simple fact that teams are moving their priorities and resource pools towards frontline starting pitching and back-of-the-bullpen lights out aces. Bautista has done nothing short of excel in the top level of the sport ever since his breakout year in 2010, but the hesitancy teams faced appeared to have outweighed their ultimate decision to offer Bautista a remunerative deal.
Age, steady decline, positional limitations, and contract demands all played a part in delaying Bautista from signing on with a team. More teams are moving towards a rotating designated hitting spot in the American League, and with Joey Bats looking to occupy most of his time in the DH hole, with some limited accessibility in right field, it was a very unappealing fit for many organizations. The latest Collective Bargaining Agreement that came to fruition this winter may have also weighed heavy on Bautista, as teams that abuse the salary cap and go over by a wide margin (greater than 10% of upcoming 190MM+ cap in 2017 season) would be faced with draft pick forfeiture, and restrictions on submitting contracts to international amateur free agents, and amateurs in the rule four draft. Spending pools and bonuses awarded to players would ultimately be limited in the market place for organizations that spend over the leagues allotted budget line, and with Bautista's prodigious asking price, teams felt better off not taking the risk.
Ultimately, it's a good move for both Bautista, and the Toronto Blue Jays, who have reclaimed their longtime slugger on a short term contract, which has options attached for the 2018 and 2019 seasons. Bautista will receive more than the qualifying offer extended to him, which this year came in at $17.2MM over a single season, and Bautista bested that number by an additional $800K.
Toronto is now armed with Devon Travis, Russell Martin, Josh Donaldson, and the newly minted Bautista, all of whom will look to replicate last seasons offensive breakouts. Last season, Toronto ranked 9th in runs scored (759), 4th in homeruns (221), sixth in OBP (.330), and second in walks (632) as an entire team, which propelled them as one of the leagues leading offenses. With Bautista back in the mix, Toronto has an even better chance to reproduce those numbers, and help their offensive outbursts turn into victories.
One of the premier sluggers in the sport over the past half-decade, if Bautista is a bright spot in manager John Gibbons lineup this season, and he still shows he's more than capable in right field, it isn't impossible to leave out another try at the free agent market again next winter. Posting monstrous power numbers will only help Bautista appreciate in value, but his ability to play the field and stay healthy will be closely examined underneath a microscope by many throughout much of the season. It's fair to speculate that if things go south, Bautista could always be flipped to a contender at the non-waiver trade deadline at the end of July as a sturdy veteran presence, and lefty-masher.
With one of the top bats finally plucked off the board, it'll be interesting to see how the likes of Mark Trumbo and Chris Carter fare now that the storied Bautista has reclaimed his spot in Toronto's fearsome lineup.
It's a bit surprising in the sense that Bautista had to wait this long to find work from an employer, but it would appear the market has officially set its price and standard for one dimensional power sluggers in a day and age where homerun hitters are becoming more of a common thread. There's no argument that at the age of 36, the right fielder still brings a thundering bat that even in a down year last season, sported a .217 isolated slugging percentage, which is drastically better than the .140 league average.
It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that time is, and was not, on Bautista's side when testing the waters this winter. Seeking a lucrative deal before the 2016 season even began, injuries soured Bautista's season and inevitably blocked his earning power this winter. Many experts had predicted he would have to settle for a one year deal to build back up his case for a long term pact from the right organization, but the clock is ticking, and Bautista is running out of time to turn skeptics into believers.
Edwin Encarnacion, a teammate of Bautista last year and since 2009, equally saw his case stunned and pushed back due to the simple fact that teams are moving their priorities and resource pools towards frontline starting pitching and back-of-the-bullpen lights out aces. Bautista has done nothing short of excel in the top level of the sport ever since his breakout year in 2010, but the hesitancy teams faced appeared to have outweighed their ultimate decision to offer Bautista a remunerative deal.
Age, steady decline, positional limitations, and contract demands all played a part in delaying Bautista from signing on with a team. More teams are moving towards a rotating designated hitting spot in the American League, and with Joey Bats looking to occupy most of his time in the DH hole, with some limited accessibility in right field, it was a very unappealing fit for many organizations. The latest Collective Bargaining Agreement that came to fruition this winter may have also weighed heavy on Bautista, as teams that abuse the salary cap and go over by a wide margin (greater than 10% of upcoming 190MM+ cap in 2017 season) would be faced with draft pick forfeiture, and restrictions on submitting contracts to international amateur free agents, and amateurs in the rule four draft. Spending pools and bonuses awarded to players would ultimately be limited in the market place for organizations that spend over the leagues allotted budget line, and with Bautista's prodigious asking price, teams felt better off not taking the risk.
Ultimately, it's a good move for both Bautista, and the Toronto Blue Jays, who have reclaimed their longtime slugger on a short term contract, which has options attached for the 2018 and 2019 seasons. Bautista will receive more than the qualifying offer extended to him, which this year came in at $17.2MM over a single season, and Bautista bested that number by an additional $800K.
Toronto is now armed with Devon Travis, Russell Martin, Josh Donaldson, and the newly minted Bautista, all of whom will look to replicate last seasons offensive breakouts. Last season, Toronto ranked 9th in runs scored (759), 4th in homeruns (221), sixth in OBP (.330), and second in walks (632) as an entire team, which propelled them as one of the leagues leading offenses. With Bautista back in the mix, Toronto has an even better chance to reproduce those numbers, and help their offensive outbursts turn into victories.
One of the premier sluggers in the sport over the past half-decade, if Bautista is a bright spot in manager John Gibbons lineup this season, and he still shows he's more than capable in right field, it isn't impossible to leave out another try at the free agent market again next winter. Posting monstrous power numbers will only help Bautista appreciate in value, but his ability to play the field and stay healthy will be closely examined underneath a microscope by many throughout much of the season. It's fair to speculate that if things go south, Bautista could always be flipped to a contender at the non-waiver trade deadline at the end of July as a sturdy veteran presence, and lefty-masher.
With one of the top bats finally plucked off the board, it'll be interesting to see how the likes of Mark Trumbo and Chris Carter fare now that the storied Bautista has reclaimed his spot in Toronto's fearsome lineup.
Super Bowl Possibilities and Predictions
Currently we have four teams in the Super Bowl picture, three are teams that have proven to be playoff contenders and one that is dominant in offense passing this past regular season.
In making this list, I will be listing the possible match ups and winners for Super Bowl LI. The order in which the matches appear are irrelevant, I am not listing them based off of chances for winning.
1) Pittsburgh VS Atlanta
Winner: Pittsburgh
This matchup is unique, mainly because we do not have accurate data for the Falcons Postseason plays. However, Big Ben has proven himself twice in the Super Bowl, and with Le'veon Bell Running circles around ever defense I don't see the Falcons winning this shootout. Steelers defense plays hard a rough, often to the dismay of referees and players alike. They are penalty prone, but they do intimidate the competition. The last time the Steelers and Falcons met was in 2015, with Pittsburgh winning by seven. With Matt Ryan, a great quarterback who has never proven himself in the playoffs, the Falcons do not have the horses to pull the weight.
2) Pittsburgh VS Green Bay
Winner: Green Bay
A matchup of two of the best quarterbacks currently in this league, Aaron Rodgers and Ben Roethlisberger. For this matchup I have to go with Aaron Rodgers, with his two wins over the Cowboys and the Giants he showed why he is the best quarterback in the NFL. As mentioned above, Pittsburgh's defense is fearsome, but not the defense to beat a cool headed Aaron Rodgers, who can punish over-aggression. In last week's Cowboys game Aaron Rodgers drew two penalties on Dallas for illegal formation, rushing the snap while Dallas was substituting. This is an experienced quarterback who knows what to do and is borderline unstoppable in this league. Pittsburgh's offense is not the offense we have been told about. Against Kansas, Bell and Roethlisberger did not score a single touchdown, this performance is not going to cut it in the playoffs. While Rodgers is playing the best he ever has.
3) New England VS Atlanta
Winner: New England
Once again, Matty Ice and Company are not a true playoff team, the last time the Falcons went to the playoffs was six years ago, going as far as the NFC Championship before losing to the 49ers. I think what is most likely to happen is they will go down the same as the 2015 Carolina Panthers, or the 2004 Atlanta Falcons. A record breaking team with a lot of great talent who could not get it down in the playoffs. Compare this with Tom Terrific and Darth Lord of Football Bill Belichick, who have been to the AFC Championship 10 times in the last 16 years, it becomes clear the experience and knowhow lie with the Patriots. Not to mention the Patriots Defense who have allowed the least number of points per game in all the NFL. Julio Jones, and Matt Ryan will not be the high scorers in this game, unlike the other twelve games where they came away with victories. Taking away their scoring potential with the Patriots defense will severely weaken the Falcons' chances of winning. And as Tom has shown us this year, he is capable of dominating the best defenses in the NFL.
4) New England VS Green Bay
Winner: New England
I think when it comes to this decade of football, this will be the biggest Super Bowl matchup. The storylines are so perfect, even if the NFL was staged, the plot couldn't be better. Two of the most dominant Quarterbacks in the league who have never met in a Super Bowl coming head to head. Should Tom Brady win, he becomes the GOAT unanimously! If Rodgers wins, then he becomes the new GOAT, and will be viewed at the same caliber as Brady and Montana. Unfortunately, Superbowls are not won by offenses alone, I would argue defense won the Super Bowl for the Giants in 2007, and 2011. It certainly won it for the Broncos and Seahawks. And with that bit of information, the Patriots chances of winning are much higher. Green Bay does not have a reliable defense, they do not have the play makers that New England does. Clinton-Dix in the secondary is not match for a Devin McCourty, and Clay Matthews as outside linebacker does not have the type of pass denial Hightower has. In points allowed per game, New England comes out number one with 15.6 points a game, Green Bay comes in 21st with 24.3. That is a difference of 8.7 points a game. Not to mention the Packers gave up 30+ points to Dallas this past week. There are a few rules in Superbowls, if the Patriots are in it, bet on them, unless the Giants are in it as well.
In making this list, I will be listing the possible match ups and winners for Super Bowl LI. The order in which the matches appear are irrelevant, I am not listing them based off of chances for winning.
1) Pittsburgh VS Atlanta
Winner: Pittsburgh
This matchup is unique, mainly because we do not have accurate data for the Falcons Postseason plays. However, Big Ben has proven himself twice in the Super Bowl, and with Le'veon Bell Running circles around ever defense I don't see the Falcons winning this shootout. Steelers defense plays hard a rough, often to the dismay of referees and players alike. They are penalty prone, but they do intimidate the competition. The last time the Steelers and Falcons met was in 2015, with Pittsburgh winning by seven. With Matt Ryan, a great quarterback who has never proven himself in the playoffs, the Falcons do not have the horses to pull the weight.
2) Pittsburgh VS Green Bay
Winner: Green Bay
A matchup of two of the best quarterbacks currently in this league, Aaron Rodgers and Ben Roethlisberger. For this matchup I have to go with Aaron Rodgers, with his two wins over the Cowboys and the Giants he showed why he is the best quarterback in the NFL. As mentioned above, Pittsburgh's defense is fearsome, but not the defense to beat a cool headed Aaron Rodgers, who can punish over-aggression. In last week's Cowboys game Aaron Rodgers drew two penalties on Dallas for illegal formation, rushing the snap while Dallas was substituting. This is an experienced quarterback who knows what to do and is borderline unstoppable in this league. Pittsburgh's offense is not the offense we have been told about. Against Kansas, Bell and Roethlisberger did not score a single touchdown, this performance is not going to cut it in the playoffs. While Rodgers is playing the best he ever has.
3) New England VS Atlanta
Winner: New England
Once again, Matty Ice and Company are not a true playoff team, the last time the Falcons went to the playoffs was six years ago, going as far as the NFC Championship before losing to the 49ers. I think what is most likely to happen is they will go down the same as the 2015 Carolina Panthers, or the 2004 Atlanta Falcons. A record breaking team with a lot of great talent who could not get it down in the playoffs. Compare this with Tom Terrific and Darth Lord of Football Bill Belichick, who have been to the AFC Championship 10 times in the last 16 years, it becomes clear the experience and knowhow lie with the Patriots. Not to mention the Patriots Defense who have allowed the least number of points per game in all the NFL. Julio Jones, and Matt Ryan will not be the high scorers in this game, unlike the other twelve games where they came away with victories. Taking away their scoring potential with the Patriots defense will severely weaken the Falcons' chances of winning. And as Tom has shown us this year, he is capable of dominating the best defenses in the NFL.
4) New England VS Green Bay
Winner: New England
I think when it comes to this decade of football, this will be the biggest Super Bowl matchup. The storylines are so perfect, even if the NFL was staged, the plot couldn't be better. Two of the most dominant Quarterbacks in the league who have never met in a Super Bowl coming head to head. Should Tom Brady win, he becomes the GOAT unanimously! If Rodgers wins, then he becomes the new GOAT, and will be viewed at the same caliber as Brady and Montana. Unfortunately, Superbowls are not won by offenses alone, I would argue defense won the Super Bowl for the Giants in 2007, and 2011. It certainly won it for the Broncos and Seahawks. And with that bit of information, the Patriots chances of winning are much higher. Green Bay does not have a reliable defense, they do not have the play makers that New England does. Clinton-Dix in the secondary is not match for a Devin McCourty, and Clay Matthews as outside linebacker does not have the type of pass denial Hightower has. In points allowed per game, New England comes out number one with 15.6 points a game, Green Bay comes in 21st with 24.3. That is a difference of 8.7 points a game. Not to mention the Packers gave up 30+ points to Dallas this past week. There are a few rules in Superbowls, if the Patriots are in it, bet on them, unless the Giants are in it as well.
MLB Fantasy Rankings 2017: Secondbase
As we look forward at the outcome for the keystone position, it has gained impressive momentum and a boatload of talent over the past couple of years. Second base has proved to be a black hole more or less in fantasy baseball, as there has been a very finite amount of startable talent at the position for a good while now. Back when Brandon Phillips, Dustin Pedroia, and Robinson Cano appeared to be the cream of the crop in the mid-to-late 2000's, the position has grown strong with a colossal core of exciting talent for fantasy owners. For the most part, second base has proved time and time again to be a generally more demanding position than first base, which leads the athletes at this position to be more versatile and agile out on the field. Due to that, the offensive ceiling of second basemen is immensely lower than any other spot on the diamond, and many, if not most teams are comfortable with deploying a more-than-capable defensive option at the position to form a strong double-play duo. Fortunately for fantasy owners this coming season, the position is at it's strongest for a first in some time, and gives fantasy owners a much needed bundle of flexibility to structure their draft around other higher offensive ceiling positions, while not missing out at a sumptuous and developed bat at second base. Fear not, their will be alluring and masterful choices at second base, but the real question becomes not if you can draft your preferred second basemen, but whether or not he'll be able to continue mashing at the plate, while delivering solid defense and garnering consideration for being a top-ten second basemen. The numbers posted at the plate in 2016 have significantly raised the floor and expectations for the second base community in 2017, and these lofty expectations may be met with underwhelming results early on this season. Some, not all, of the qualified players at second base are notoriously known for being atrociously slow starters (i.e. Brian Dozier), but more ways than none, that can be used to your advantage as a fantasy owner looking to hit big on a second base bat you missed on in the draft.
The top of the second base list is really one to drool on, as most players have a special knack for putting pitches in play at a high rate that presumably results in a high BABIP, while stealing bags and crushing homeruns when they need to. Usually on the smaller side for players in baseball, second basemen are leaner and smaller, but this list of guys packs a punch you really might regret missing on after seeing how they'll torch the league in 2017.
These projections are purely based off of the offensive capabilities and talents that these players possess, and do not factor defensive prowess or proficiency into altering the ranking of a player.
1. Jose Altuve HOU
2016 Stats: .338/.396/.531, 24 HR, 96 RBI, 108 R, 60 BB
2017 Projections: .330/.378/.473, 19 HR, 105 RBI, 113 R, 56 BB
Let's start out by point to the obvious: Altuve is 5'6", 165 lbs, and he put up 24 HR's and a .338 average? This just flat out screams ability to make hard contact and barrel up any pitch is his special weapon, and the guy knows how to swing the lumber as good as anyone in the sport. He led all qualified American League batters in average last season, and most might peg him for a regression in this coming campaign, but the interesting part is it might be smarter to be even more bullish on this guy not only repeating, but putting up better numbers than last season. His BABIP was .347, which means of all the balls he put in play, 34.7% of them would've gone for a hit for Altuve. This number is extremely above league average, but due to his blazing speed, and ability to put the ball where the defender isn't, there should be optimism for Altuve to settle into this high ceiling range year-in and year-out. With the recent additions of Brian McCann, Josh Reddick, and the never-aging Carlos Beltran, as well as returning budding stars Carlos Correa, Alex Bregman, George Springer, and Yulieski Gurriel, Altuve has all the tools around him to demonstrate why he's a top MVP candidate, and to replicate his numbers year-to-year. Due to a stronger lineup overall, Altuve may see opposing hurlers pitch to him less, while they focus on attacking the batters behind Altuve instead; this could be an underlying sign that suggests a higher OBP this season is in the cards, and with the lineup Houston will be putting out on the field, Altuve could possibly crush his single seasons personal best runs scored record of 108 last year. Altuve is the obvious choice for the top-seed in the second base bag, as he's a true five-tool player, and represents perhaps the highest ceiling and understanding for hitting of anyone at the position currently.
2. Robinson Cano SEA
2016 Stats: .298/.350/.533, 39 HR, 103 RBI, 107 R, 47 BB
2017 Projections: .292/.358/.484, 31 HR, 99 RBI, 103 R, 55 BB
The sweet swinging Cano has been nothing short of excellent since coming to Seattle as a free agent three years ago, but 2016 was really Robbie's banner year, as he put a second-best 39 dingers for second basemen, trailing only Twin Brian Dozier who hit 42 HR's. Cano has always had one of the best bats in the league, and going into his age 34 season, look for him to still swing a mean stick that rates towards the top of the league, but also look for him to become even more selective at the plate, as his power numbers may stall a little bit towards his career norm in the mid twenties per season. He's as solid a bet at the position as anyone to continue racking up fantasy points on a regular basis, but some owners may be reluctant due to Cano playing at Safeco Field, which kills long balls, but interestingly enough he hit .272 with 17 HR's and a 481 slugging percentage at home, which all rates as certainly above average. Also, look for Cano to continue attacking pitchers early in the count, especially swinging at first pitches, where in 2016, he hit to the tune of a .416 average in 0-0 counts, and a .338 average in 1-0 counts too; Cano like any other star hitter knows all too well what to do with pitches that pitchers make mistakes out of, as he demolished 39 offerings into the seats as souvenirs for fans. He'll likely be one of, if not the first second basemen to come off the board, and rightfully so, draft him high, and expect an explosion of powerful offensive numbers.
3. Daniel Murphy WAS
2016 Stats: .347/.390/.595, 25 HR, 104 RBI, 88 R, 35 BB
2017 Projections: .301/.344/.461, 18 HR, 89 RBI, 72 R, 29 BB
He's continued to make a fool of opposing pitchers since his historic postseason run with the Mets in 2015, and set fire to the fantasy community last year, capturing a startled amount of fantasy owners off guard by his gaudy numbers. He topped out at 14 HR's in his last year with the Mets, and only hit double digit dingers three times in his career before taking his talents to D.C. The expectations are going to be quiet lofty, and it can be assumed that this coming year will truly show some relapse in Murphy's power numbers, but he's always had firm bat-to-ball coordination, which should continue. He'll be drafted way too high, so don't bite on him to early, and it'll be hard to hold off once looking back on his 25 HR's and .347 average last year, but unless Murphy has developed into a late career booming second base resurgent magic bat, he'll throw solid, if not unspectacular numbers back at the fantasy community. You could look to draft him and pray he has a lightning quick start to the season, and sell high on his efforts, but Murphy hasn't done quite enough yet to warrant a safe guarantee that he'll be able to deliver elite numbers at second base just yet.
4. Brian Dozier MIN
2016 Stats: .268/.340/.546, 42 HR, 99 RBI, 104 R, 61 BB
2017 Projections: .254/.332/.521, 34 HR, 92 RBI, 101 R, 62 B
Brian Dozier, the bulldozer, plowed away at pitchers last season, leaving orbit and annihilating 42 HR's in the seats. Dozier has always been known to be a steady bet to provide great power numbers at the second base position, if not the best in the league, and he certainly backed his case for homerun champ at the position last year. It'll be hard to come back and hit another 40+ bombs, but he has the power to consistently knock at least 30 out of the park in his peak years, while providing a boost with double digit stolen base totals. Rumors have had it that the Dodgers were interested in acquiring Dozier, but with the asking price at an all time high, now is definitely not the time to buy on Dozier, but it is probably the best point to sell on Dozier for the Minnesota Twins, as his value will most likely never eclipse the point it is at right now. Another case like Murphy, coming off of a career year, the question is really whether or not Dozier can prove he can replicate his success to the degree he did last season; if he can he's a truly elite player at the position, and if he can't, well then you, just like the Twins, waited to long to sell on a sky-high scarce piece. Plug him and play him at second because he'll undoubtedly provide some of the best power numbers on your entire roster, and he'll do it with plain southern Mississippi boy power, striking pitches a country mile.
5. Ian Kinsler DET
2016 Stats: .288/.348/.484, 28 HR, 83 RBI, 117 R, 45 BB
2017 Projections: .289/.341/.439, 21 HR, 90 RBI, 102 R, 48 BB
Kinsler, originally a Texas Ranger, was swapped 1-for-1 with Prince Fielder back in 2013, which surprisingly turned out to be a steal of a deal for the Detroit Tigers. The Texas Rangers would only get one above-average season out of Fielder, who went on to hit a career low 23 HR's and score only 78 runs. Kinsler, on the other hand, has only gotten better in the past three seasons, accumulating a higher WAR each and every year since being acquired by Detroit. Kinsler has develop into quite the nice offensive cog for a powerful Detroit lineup, that has big bats J.D. Martinez, Miguel Cabrera, and Victor Martinez. Hitting atop the order, Kinsler will be a fine bet to remain near the top of the leaderboard for second basemen in runs scored, while providing credible power for the position. Kinsler has never really been a walks specialist, and has an acute ability to not only get on base, but thread balls into the gap and pop his fair share over the Comerica Park fences. Always a safe bet for a great return, Kinsler isn't the best at the position, but maybe the safest bet for a good return.
6. Rougned Odor TEX
2016 Stats: .271/.296/.502, 33 HR, 88 RBI, 89 R, 19 BB
2017 Projections: .265/.303/.510, 36 HR, 95 RBI, 92 R, 27 BB
Texas is known for sporting incredible offenses that perform the way they should in a ball park built to punish pitchers for leaving mistakes over the heart of the plate. Odor is an interesting case, because as he came up through the minors many pegged him as a fringe prospect due to his size, but if we've learned anything from the top of the list, size isn't necessarily a guarantee of anything. Only being 5'11", Odor packs a great punch with the bat and punches pitchers in the mouth with his power, as he launched 33 bombs last year. For such a small guy, he can swing the stick really as hard as anyone at the position, and is an intriguing talent that at the ripe age of 22, can only develop and get better from here. In that Texas lineup that features Elvis Andrus, Nomar Mazara, Adrian Beltre, and Jonathan Lucroy, it's scary to think what kind of numbers Odor could possibly post in his fourth big league season. I'd personally peg the guy to exceed expectations and continue to mash at the major league, and no one is going to stop Odor from becoming better or more aggressive, not even Jose Bautista. Globe Life Park rates as one of the friendliest for hitters in the league, and Odor took great advantage of that, as he hit .281 with a .538 slugging percentage and 17 HR's when playing there last season. Considering he'll play 81 games there, it can be assumed that while Odor is still adjusting to the league, and learning the true ability of his talents, it'll be hard for opposing pitchers to hold him inside the park. Odor could certainly be on the higher end of this list by seasons end, and he has about as much potential as anyone at the position to provide some of the best offensive numbers this coming season.
7. Dustin Pedroia BOS
2016 Stats: .318/.376/.449, 15 HR, 74 RBI, 105 R, 61 BB
2017 Projections: .309/.379/.425, 13 HR, 85 RBI, 100 R, 68 BB
Pedroia and the Red Sox tried to deliver Big Papi one more World Series before he walked off in the sun set, but ultimately fell short and lost in the ALDS to the pennant winning Cleveland Indians. A great portion of Boston's offensive success last season was thanks to their new leadoff man, Pedroia, who set the table for Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, and Ortiz to rake last season. He provided his usual stellar defense for which he is fondly known for, but the bat was perhaps the biggest surprise for many Sox fans. Going into his age 32 season, and previously having wrist surgery seasons before, it had been speculated Pedroia would never regain his power stroke, but ultimately he would go on to prove the doubters wrong. The Muddy Chicken would knock 15 HR's out, while sticking 36 pitches into the gap for doubles, and supplying one triple for good measure. His resume had been well padded coming into the season, but it's easy to think no one expected Pedroia to go out and terrorize pitches to the tune of a .318 batting average, while putting up a 61-73 BB/K ratio, which is an optimistic sign for an aging veteran that will certainly be more selective over pitches at the plate. Now that Ortiz has officially retired, Pedroia will look to Betts and Bogaerts more to generate the spark plug the Boston offense will unquestionably need now that Ortiz is no longer playing. It's fair to question how much longer Pedroia's small frame and body will be able to keep up, but with Boston manager John Farrell knowing as well as anyone that Peddey needs his fair share of days off, Pedroia should consistently be refreshed throughout the seasons so that he can continue to hit .300+ and score close to 100 runs per year.
8. D.J. LeMahieu COL
2016 Stats: .348/.416/.495, 11 HR, 66 RBI, 104 R, 66 BB
2017 Projections: .310/.389/.478, 12 HR, 71 RBI, 110 R, 63 BB
A huge surprise for the fantasy baseball world, LeMahieu unexpectedly came out and torched the league, hitting .348 in what was by far LeMahieu's most impressive year yet. His bat-to-ball skills are extremely impressive, and he also possesses any uncanny ability to pair his contact skills with a better than average strikeout rate that could see him morph into a perennial batting average monster. Take into consideration he also plays for a potent Rockies lineup that plays at Coors Field, and has the advantage of seeing their fair share of fly-balls go for homeruns due to the altitude in Colorado. LeMahieu doesn't boast encouraging power numbers, because if you draft him, you'll be looking for someone to carry your team in the average department, and that's just what LeMahieu should be called upon to do. He did put up a .495 slugging percentage last season, which is definitely better than league average, but he hit an uncharacteristic .391/.473/.591 at home last season, which may prove to be unsustainable as he continues his career. This isn't his first season hitting over .300, as he put together a .301 campaign the year prior, and did jump 107 points in the slugging percentage branch. With Nolan Arenado, Carlos Gonzalez, and newly signed Ian Desmond hitting behind LeMahieu, there will be no shortage of runs scored, barring any injury that may occur. He should be able to hit above .280 for sure, and because he plays at Coors, expect his stats to stay inflated due to the nature of Colorado's ballpark dimensions and sea level elevation.
9. Jason Kipnis CLE
2016 Stats: .275/.343/.469, 23 HR, 82 RBI, 91 R, 60 BB
2017 Projections: .290/.361/.464, 21 HR, 90 RBI, 98 R, 72 BB
Thank you, Edwin Encarnacion, for taking your talents to Cleveland where fantasy owners should expect a jump in runs scored for Kipnis, and potentially an overall rise in his gameplay due to the fact that Encarnacion will absorb a greater portion of the overall team expectations. Since debuting back in 2011, Kipnis has proved to be a valuable asset both on offense and defense, collecting a 5.9 WAR at his peak thus far, and coming into his age 29 season, his best years are potentially still to come, and that should entice many owners to take a shot on a guy coming off career highs in HR's, runs scored, and slugging percentage. He's one of the better second basemen at the position, and considering he swings left-handed, he can offer a bit of diversity in your lineup when it comes lefty/righty matchups in the box. Like Pedroia, Kipnis is an Arizona State product, and is another second basemen that defies the odds of gravity, standing at only 5'11", 195 lbs on the field. Could be a dark horse candidate for a 20/20 season, as he set a personal career high in fly-balls hit last season, which if he continues the trend, leaves him at a greater risk for a lower batting average, but could reward fantasy owners in return with a greater number of HR's. Manager Terry Francona could look to run more on the base paths, and that could pave the way for more steals for Kipnis, who could provide a potentially deadly HR and SB package as mentioned before that could best other second basemen.
10. Ben Zobrist CHC
2016 Stats: .272/.386/.446, 18 HR, 76 RBI, 94 R, 96 BB
2017 Projections: .275/.396/.430, 15 HR, 81 RBI, 100 R, 99 BB
A fine example of the well-known swiss army knife, Zobrist has invented his very own brand of the crafty knife, as he played at least one game at five different positions last year, while providing steady and effective numbers across the board as a veteran hitter and leader in the Cubs clubhouse. Signed as their second basemen, Zobrist provides middling numbers in the power department, averaging around 13.2 homeruns per season in his ten year career, but he excels both on paper and in the stadium at getting on base at a well above-average rate. Zobrist put up a .386 OBP, which is second in his career only to his .405 OBP he registered in 2009, which was perhaps the height of his career. He brings 30+ doubles, 10+ homeruns, and is set to most likely score more than 90 runs this season in an extremely potent Cubs lineup. Due to the fact that he can be dispersed at multiple positions on your fantasy roster, and the towering expectations for second basemen to deliver this season, he may be a better shortstop or outfield option, but he's still quite capable of putting together a fine fantasy season for owners that missed out on top-tier options early in the draft.
That'll wrap up the top list of second baggers for now, and in our next article we'll highlight and focus on one of the best positions, third base, to provide your fantasy lineup with an all-around offensive spark to rake this coming year.
The top of the second base list is really one to drool on, as most players have a special knack for putting pitches in play at a high rate that presumably results in a high BABIP, while stealing bags and crushing homeruns when they need to. Usually on the smaller side for players in baseball, second basemen are leaner and smaller, but this list of guys packs a punch you really might regret missing on after seeing how they'll torch the league in 2017.
These projections are purely based off of the offensive capabilities and talents that these players possess, and do not factor defensive prowess or proficiency into altering the ranking of a player.
1. Jose Altuve HOU
2016 Stats: .338/.396/.531, 24 HR, 96 RBI, 108 R, 60 BB
2017 Projections: .330/.378/.473, 19 HR, 105 RBI, 113 R, 56 BB
Let's start out by point to the obvious: Altuve is 5'6", 165 lbs, and he put up 24 HR's and a .338 average? This just flat out screams ability to make hard contact and barrel up any pitch is his special weapon, and the guy knows how to swing the lumber as good as anyone in the sport. He led all qualified American League batters in average last season, and most might peg him for a regression in this coming campaign, but the interesting part is it might be smarter to be even more bullish on this guy not only repeating, but putting up better numbers than last season. His BABIP was .347, which means of all the balls he put in play, 34.7% of them would've gone for a hit for Altuve. This number is extremely above league average, but due to his blazing speed, and ability to put the ball where the defender isn't, there should be optimism for Altuve to settle into this high ceiling range year-in and year-out. With the recent additions of Brian McCann, Josh Reddick, and the never-aging Carlos Beltran, as well as returning budding stars Carlos Correa, Alex Bregman, George Springer, and Yulieski Gurriel, Altuve has all the tools around him to demonstrate why he's a top MVP candidate, and to replicate his numbers year-to-year. Due to a stronger lineup overall, Altuve may see opposing hurlers pitch to him less, while they focus on attacking the batters behind Altuve instead; this could be an underlying sign that suggests a higher OBP this season is in the cards, and with the lineup Houston will be putting out on the field, Altuve could possibly crush his single seasons personal best runs scored record of 108 last year. Altuve is the obvious choice for the top-seed in the second base bag, as he's a true five-tool player, and represents perhaps the highest ceiling and understanding for hitting of anyone at the position currently.
2. Robinson Cano SEA
2016 Stats: .298/.350/.533, 39 HR, 103 RBI, 107 R, 47 BB
2017 Projections: .292/.358/.484, 31 HR, 99 RBI, 103 R, 55 BB
The sweet swinging Cano has been nothing short of excellent since coming to Seattle as a free agent three years ago, but 2016 was really Robbie's banner year, as he put a second-best 39 dingers for second basemen, trailing only Twin Brian Dozier who hit 42 HR's. Cano has always had one of the best bats in the league, and going into his age 34 season, look for him to still swing a mean stick that rates towards the top of the league, but also look for him to become even more selective at the plate, as his power numbers may stall a little bit towards his career norm in the mid twenties per season. He's as solid a bet at the position as anyone to continue racking up fantasy points on a regular basis, but some owners may be reluctant due to Cano playing at Safeco Field, which kills long balls, but interestingly enough he hit .272 with 17 HR's and a 481 slugging percentage at home, which all rates as certainly above average. Also, look for Cano to continue attacking pitchers early in the count, especially swinging at first pitches, where in 2016, he hit to the tune of a .416 average in 0-0 counts, and a .338 average in 1-0 counts too; Cano like any other star hitter knows all too well what to do with pitches that pitchers make mistakes out of, as he demolished 39 offerings into the seats as souvenirs for fans. He'll likely be one of, if not the first second basemen to come off the board, and rightfully so, draft him high, and expect an explosion of powerful offensive numbers.
3. Daniel Murphy WAS
2016 Stats: .347/.390/.595, 25 HR, 104 RBI, 88 R, 35 BB
2017 Projections: .301/.344/.461, 18 HR, 89 RBI, 72 R, 29 BB
He's continued to make a fool of opposing pitchers since his historic postseason run with the Mets in 2015, and set fire to the fantasy community last year, capturing a startled amount of fantasy owners off guard by his gaudy numbers. He topped out at 14 HR's in his last year with the Mets, and only hit double digit dingers three times in his career before taking his talents to D.C. The expectations are going to be quiet lofty, and it can be assumed that this coming year will truly show some relapse in Murphy's power numbers, but he's always had firm bat-to-ball coordination, which should continue. He'll be drafted way too high, so don't bite on him to early, and it'll be hard to hold off once looking back on his 25 HR's and .347 average last year, but unless Murphy has developed into a late career booming second base resurgent magic bat, he'll throw solid, if not unspectacular numbers back at the fantasy community. You could look to draft him and pray he has a lightning quick start to the season, and sell high on his efforts, but Murphy hasn't done quite enough yet to warrant a safe guarantee that he'll be able to deliver elite numbers at second base just yet.
4. Brian Dozier MIN
2016 Stats: .268/.340/.546, 42 HR, 99 RBI, 104 R, 61 BB
2017 Projections: .254/.332/.521, 34 HR, 92 RBI, 101 R, 62 B
Brian Dozier, the bulldozer, plowed away at pitchers last season, leaving orbit and annihilating 42 HR's in the seats. Dozier has always been known to be a steady bet to provide great power numbers at the second base position, if not the best in the league, and he certainly backed his case for homerun champ at the position last year. It'll be hard to come back and hit another 40+ bombs, but he has the power to consistently knock at least 30 out of the park in his peak years, while providing a boost with double digit stolen base totals. Rumors have had it that the Dodgers were interested in acquiring Dozier, but with the asking price at an all time high, now is definitely not the time to buy on Dozier, but it is probably the best point to sell on Dozier for the Minnesota Twins, as his value will most likely never eclipse the point it is at right now. Another case like Murphy, coming off of a career year, the question is really whether or not Dozier can prove he can replicate his success to the degree he did last season; if he can he's a truly elite player at the position, and if he can't, well then you, just like the Twins, waited to long to sell on a sky-high scarce piece. Plug him and play him at second because he'll undoubtedly provide some of the best power numbers on your entire roster, and he'll do it with plain southern Mississippi boy power, striking pitches a country mile.
5. Ian Kinsler DET
2016 Stats: .288/.348/.484, 28 HR, 83 RBI, 117 R, 45 BB
2017 Projections: .289/.341/.439, 21 HR, 90 RBI, 102 R, 48 BB
Kinsler, originally a Texas Ranger, was swapped 1-for-1 with Prince Fielder back in 2013, which surprisingly turned out to be a steal of a deal for the Detroit Tigers. The Texas Rangers would only get one above-average season out of Fielder, who went on to hit a career low 23 HR's and score only 78 runs. Kinsler, on the other hand, has only gotten better in the past three seasons, accumulating a higher WAR each and every year since being acquired by Detroit. Kinsler has develop into quite the nice offensive cog for a powerful Detroit lineup, that has big bats J.D. Martinez, Miguel Cabrera, and Victor Martinez. Hitting atop the order, Kinsler will be a fine bet to remain near the top of the leaderboard for second basemen in runs scored, while providing credible power for the position. Kinsler has never really been a walks specialist, and has an acute ability to not only get on base, but thread balls into the gap and pop his fair share over the Comerica Park fences. Always a safe bet for a great return, Kinsler isn't the best at the position, but maybe the safest bet for a good return.
6. Rougned Odor TEX
2016 Stats: .271/.296/.502, 33 HR, 88 RBI, 89 R, 19 BB
2017 Projections: .265/.303/.510, 36 HR, 95 RBI, 92 R, 27 BB
Texas is known for sporting incredible offenses that perform the way they should in a ball park built to punish pitchers for leaving mistakes over the heart of the plate. Odor is an interesting case, because as he came up through the minors many pegged him as a fringe prospect due to his size, but if we've learned anything from the top of the list, size isn't necessarily a guarantee of anything. Only being 5'11", Odor packs a great punch with the bat and punches pitchers in the mouth with his power, as he launched 33 bombs last year. For such a small guy, he can swing the stick really as hard as anyone at the position, and is an intriguing talent that at the ripe age of 22, can only develop and get better from here. In that Texas lineup that features Elvis Andrus, Nomar Mazara, Adrian Beltre, and Jonathan Lucroy, it's scary to think what kind of numbers Odor could possibly post in his fourth big league season. I'd personally peg the guy to exceed expectations and continue to mash at the major league, and no one is going to stop Odor from becoming better or more aggressive, not even Jose Bautista. Globe Life Park rates as one of the friendliest for hitters in the league, and Odor took great advantage of that, as he hit .281 with a .538 slugging percentage and 17 HR's when playing there last season. Considering he'll play 81 games there, it can be assumed that while Odor is still adjusting to the league, and learning the true ability of his talents, it'll be hard for opposing pitchers to hold him inside the park. Odor could certainly be on the higher end of this list by seasons end, and he has about as much potential as anyone at the position to provide some of the best offensive numbers this coming season.
7. Dustin Pedroia BOS
2016 Stats: .318/.376/.449, 15 HR, 74 RBI, 105 R, 61 BB
2017 Projections: .309/.379/.425, 13 HR, 85 RBI, 100 R, 68 BB
Pedroia and the Red Sox tried to deliver Big Papi one more World Series before he walked off in the sun set, but ultimately fell short and lost in the ALDS to the pennant winning Cleveland Indians. A great portion of Boston's offensive success last season was thanks to their new leadoff man, Pedroia, who set the table for Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, and Ortiz to rake last season. He provided his usual stellar defense for which he is fondly known for, but the bat was perhaps the biggest surprise for many Sox fans. Going into his age 32 season, and previously having wrist surgery seasons before, it had been speculated Pedroia would never regain his power stroke, but ultimately he would go on to prove the doubters wrong. The Muddy Chicken would knock 15 HR's out, while sticking 36 pitches into the gap for doubles, and supplying one triple for good measure. His resume had been well padded coming into the season, but it's easy to think no one expected Pedroia to go out and terrorize pitches to the tune of a .318 batting average, while putting up a 61-73 BB/K ratio, which is an optimistic sign for an aging veteran that will certainly be more selective over pitches at the plate. Now that Ortiz has officially retired, Pedroia will look to Betts and Bogaerts more to generate the spark plug the Boston offense will unquestionably need now that Ortiz is no longer playing. It's fair to question how much longer Pedroia's small frame and body will be able to keep up, but with Boston manager John Farrell knowing as well as anyone that Peddey needs his fair share of days off, Pedroia should consistently be refreshed throughout the seasons so that he can continue to hit .300+ and score close to 100 runs per year.
8. D.J. LeMahieu COL
2016 Stats: .348/.416/.495, 11 HR, 66 RBI, 104 R, 66 BB
2017 Projections: .310/.389/.478, 12 HR, 71 RBI, 110 R, 63 BB
A huge surprise for the fantasy baseball world, LeMahieu unexpectedly came out and torched the league, hitting .348 in what was by far LeMahieu's most impressive year yet. His bat-to-ball skills are extremely impressive, and he also possesses any uncanny ability to pair his contact skills with a better than average strikeout rate that could see him morph into a perennial batting average monster. Take into consideration he also plays for a potent Rockies lineup that plays at Coors Field, and has the advantage of seeing their fair share of fly-balls go for homeruns due to the altitude in Colorado. LeMahieu doesn't boast encouraging power numbers, because if you draft him, you'll be looking for someone to carry your team in the average department, and that's just what LeMahieu should be called upon to do. He did put up a .495 slugging percentage last season, which is definitely better than league average, but he hit an uncharacteristic .391/.473/.591 at home last season, which may prove to be unsustainable as he continues his career. This isn't his first season hitting over .300, as he put together a .301 campaign the year prior, and did jump 107 points in the slugging percentage branch. With Nolan Arenado, Carlos Gonzalez, and newly signed Ian Desmond hitting behind LeMahieu, there will be no shortage of runs scored, barring any injury that may occur. He should be able to hit above .280 for sure, and because he plays at Coors, expect his stats to stay inflated due to the nature of Colorado's ballpark dimensions and sea level elevation.
9. Jason Kipnis CLE
2016 Stats: .275/.343/.469, 23 HR, 82 RBI, 91 R, 60 BB
2017 Projections: .290/.361/.464, 21 HR, 90 RBI, 98 R, 72 BB
Thank you, Edwin Encarnacion, for taking your talents to Cleveland where fantasy owners should expect a jump in runs scored for Kipnis, and potentially an overall rise in his gameplay due to the fact that Encarnacion will absorb a greater portion of the overall team expectations. Since debuting back in 2011, Kipnis has proved to be a valuable asset both on offense and defense, collecting a 5.9 WAR at his peak thus far, and coming into his age 29 season, his best years are potentially still to come, and that should entice many owners to take a shot on a guy coming off career highs in HR's, runs scored, and slugging percentage. He's one of the better second basemen at the position, and considering he swings left-handed, he can offer a bit of diversity in your lineup when it comes lefty/righty matchups in the box. Like Pedroia, Kipnis is an Arizona State product, and is another second basemen that defies the odds of gravity, standing at only 5'11", 195 lbs on the field. Could be a dark horse candidate for a 20/20 season, as he set a personal career high in fly-balls hit last season, which if he continues the trend, leaves him at a greater risk for a lower batting average, but could reward fantasy owners in return with a greater number of HR's. Manager Terry Francona could look to run more on the base paths, and that could pave the way for more steals for Kipnis, who could provide a potentially deadly HR and SB package as mentioned before that could best other second basemen.
10. Ben Zobrist CHC
2016 Stats: .272/.386/.446, 18 HR, 76 RBI, 94 R, 96 BB
2017 Projections: .275/.396/.430, 15 HR, 81 RBI, 100 R, 99 BB
A fine example of the well-known swiss army knife, Zobrist has invented his very own brand of the crafty knife, as he played at least one game at five different positions last year, while providing steady and effective numbers across the board as a veteran hitter and leader in the Cubs clubhouse. Signed as their second basemen, Zobrist provides middling numbers in the power department, averaging around 13.2 homeruns per season in his ten year career, but he excels both on paper and in the stadium at getting on base at a well above-average rate. Zobrist put up a .386 OBP, which is second in his career only to his .405 OBP he registered in 2009, which was perhaps the height of his career. He brings 30+ doubles, 10+ homeruns, and is set to most likely score more than 90 runs this season in an extremely potent Cubs lineup. Due to the fact that he can be dispersed at multiple positions on your fantasy roster, and the towering expectations for second basemen to deliver this season, he may be a better shortstop or outfield option, but he's still quite capable of putting together a fine fantasy season for owners that missed out on top-tier options early in the draft.
That'll wrap up the top list of second baggers for now, and in our next article we'll highlight and focus on one of the best positions, third base, to provide your fantasy lineup with an all-around offensive spark to rake this coming year.
Monday, January 16, 2017
MLB Fantasy Rankings 2017: Firstbase
A fine, powdery coating of snow has covered the New England region in the past couple of days, and NFL playoff games continue to dominate television viewership; this is all just a reminder that baseball is still a few weeks away. The crack of the bat, the blistering rays of the summer sun, and a bag of cracker jacks while singing Take Me Out to the Ballgame represent a mere split second of what is to come in the exciting 2017 season ahead. Still being in the midst of the hot stove offseason, there are still free agents ironing out the kinks in agreements with their respective clubs, and players slowly easing back into the routine of preparing for a 162-game schedule. As discussed in the last MLB Fantasy Ranking for catchers, San Fransisco Giant Buster Posey and Texas Ranger Jonathan Lucroy headlined a list of intriguing talent that looks to offer plenty of upside for fantasy owners this year. A position of much more depth, and certainly eye-popping numbers is first base, which offers nothing short of a surplus and glut of talent that is sure to help your teams power numbers. Historically known for either being below-average with the glove, or slow as molasses on the base paths, first basemen are routinely pegged for gaudy homerun numbers well providing an intimidating middle-of-the-order presence. This years crop of players falls nothing short of those expectations, with headliners like Arizona Diamondback Paul Goldschmidt and Atlanta Brave Freddie Freeman paving the way for excellence, aided by bounce-back options like Yankee Greg Bird and National Ryan Zimmerman.
We'll be hitting on the top-ten best first basemen for this upcoming season, while also focusing on some dark horse candidates that look primed to come into their own and capture a bit of stardom.
These rankings are purely based off of offensive capability and talent, while defensive prowess is not taken into consideration due to the fact that most if not all fantasy leagues purely include offensive numbers only in a scale to award points for performances.
1. Paul Goldschmidt ARZ
2016 Stats: .297/.411/.489, 24 HR, 95 RBI, 106 R, 110 BB
2017 Projections: .298/.420/.555, 35 HR, 112 RBI, 108 R, 115 BB
Hands down one of the most elite bats not only at the position, but in general in the sport of baseball for the upcoming season. Prolific hand-to-eye coordination that has helped his pitch selection become so refined and on point that he mirrors a right-handed version of the Canadian Joey Votto. Swings a quick stick, evidenced by never having registered a slugging percentage below .489 in a full season, and has never hit less than 33 doubles. Perhaps the most jaw-dropping stat in his game, Goldschmidt swiped 32 bags last year, which registered ahead of speed demons like Dee Gordon, Mike Trout, and Mookie Betts! Not only is he one of the best hitters at the position, but he's won two gold gloves, and has 99 career steals over six seasons. Plain and simple, he knows how to hit for average, knock runners in, and swat bombs out into the stands, making him the best fantasy bet at the position for this upcoming season; the smart money is on Goldschmidt having a career year at 29-years old.
2. Joey Votto CIN
2016 Stats: .326/.434/.550, 29 HR, 97 RBI, 101 R, 108 BB
2017 Projections: .320/.440/.536, 27 HR, 89 RBI, 97 R, 121 BB
Arguably has the best eye in the sport besides Goldschmidt and Longoria, really knows how to pick pitches to barrel up and put in play, while limiting his swings at pitches outside of the strike zone. Topped out at 37 homeruns in probably his best season back in 2010, while knocking in a career high 113 runs and stealing 16 bags during that year. He has consistently posted well above-average isolated power numbers for his career (.223 ISO career vs. league average .140). Votto won't be swiping double digits bags anytime soon, and most likely peaked back in 2010, but look for him to continue his mastery of the strike zone, and punishing pitchers at the plate. Along with gold glove defense, Votto really is one of the best well-rounded players in the sport, and certainly can anchor any fantasy team to a league championship just based off his ability to make contact and put balls in play at premium velocity; his power levels are just an added benefit and remind fantasy owners just how much of a luxury it is to have someone hit for a league leading average, while delivering consistently in the power department.
3. Miguel Cabrera DET
2016 Stats: .316/.393/.563, 38 HR, 108 RBI, 92 R, 75 BB
2017 Projections: .331/.402/.558, 36 HR, 110 RBI, 101 R, 83 BB
Cabrera hasn't hit below .313 in any season since 2009, which reiterates just how dominant Cabrera has been at a position that has had a lot of turnover in the past decade. One of the few hitters that has figured out the art of hitting, and will be one of the greatest hitters of the modern era. Consistently ranking among the league leaders in most offensive categories, at 33 years of age, Cabrera doesn't seem to be slowing down. Thankfully, Cabrera plays one of the less demanding positions on the diamond at first base, and due to that, he has the ability to really hone in focusing his concentration towards refining his approach at the plate. Cabrera has been attacked away at the plate, only to see him push balls over the firstbasemen's head into right field, while also being jammed inside, to which Cabrera shortens his swings and fights off pitches that travel straight into shallow centerfield. Truly one of the best hitters, and as he ages, as a 13 year veteran, he knows how to work pitchers and look for the pitch he wants. With J.D. Martinez, Victor Martinez, and Nick Castellanos, Miguel should have another superior year as he looks to add to his growing total of 446 career homeruns and a lifetime .321 batting average.
4. Anthony Rizzo CHC
2016 Stats: .292/.385/.544, 32 HR, 109 RBI, 94 R, 74 BB
2017 Projections: .288/.400/.592, 40 HR, 125 RBI, 105 R, 79 BB
Rizzo definitely has some of the best raw talent at the position, and the potential that still lies in his bit is eye-popping considering he's still only 27-years old. The contract that he'll demand from the Cubs will be one for the ages when it comes to first basemen, and his numbers have proved that he's one of the elite performers over the past couple seasons at the position. Having been drafted by the Boston Red Sox, and traded to the San Diego Padres in the Adrian Gonzalez deal, Rizzo was reacquired by Jed Hoyer to lead a star-studded crop of Chicago Cub players finally this past season. Always known for his huge bat, Rizzo has delivered a substantial amount of value with his glove as well, which was duly noted by baseball officials, as Rizzo was officially awarded the 2016 NL Gold Glove at first base. Rizzo delivered on the other side of things with the bat, slugging to the tune of 32 homeruns in 155 games, good for a 18.2 AB/HR, which was a personal best for Rizzo. He added 43 doubles and four triples for a gaudy total of 79 extra base hits, which ranked sixth in all of Major League Baseball this past season. Anthony Rizzo has already put up all-star numbers, but the sky is the limit, especially in a lineup that is led by 2016 NL MVP Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber, Ben Zobrist, and an exciting core of young talent assembled by otherworldly President of Baseball Operations Theo Epstein.
5. Freddie Freeman ATL
2016 Stats: .302/.400/.569, 34 HR, 91 RBI, 102 R, 89 BB
2017 Projections: .291/.389/.551, 32 HR, 100 RBI, 98 R, 85 BB
Despite playing for one of the worst teams in baseball in 2016, Freeman still delivered his year-in and year-out fantastic stats, cranking a career high 34 big fly's and recording a 6.5 WAR. A lean, mean machine at 6'5", and 225 lbs, Freeman teed off on pitchers last season, although having played for Braves team that scored the second fewest runs in the MLB, only ahead of the inter-divison rival Phillies. Freeman put up really intriguing power numbers this past year, really locking in at a career low 17.3 AB/HR, with a .267 ISO that was 71 points higher than his previous career best. It can be assumed that some regression may potentially follow this season after a career year last year, and Freeman may even want to save the best for last as the Braves have one of the best up-and-coming teams in baseball, thanks to their jaded crop of minor league talent that ranks as some of the best in the game, led by Dansby Swanson, Ender Inciarte, and Ozzie Albies. Look for Freddie Freeman to put up more gaudy numbers, especially considering Atlanta's lineup won't be as dreadful as last year, and their new stadium they'll be debuting in this year.
6. Jose Abreu CHW
2016 Stats: .293/.353/.468, 25 HR, 100 RBI, 67 R, 47 BB
2017 Projections: .283/.339/.491, 27 HR, 92 RBI, 61 R, 39 BB
Openly known as a free swinger since coming over from Cuba, Abreu had a great deal of hype following him over to the states. He came with a lightning quick stick that produced globs of power, but he undoubtedly had some swing-and-miss questions arise about his game, and in his three years in the MLB, the stats have spoken for themselves. Abreu has certainly put up above-average offensive numbers in pretty much category, and would be higher on the list if he replicated his first years results over the past two seasons, but with more exposure to pitchers, and scouting reports, teams have learned how to effectively pitch Abreu to limit the damage he does against pitchers. Over the past three seasons, Abreu's batting averages, homeruns, ISO, AB/HR, XBH, and total bases have all trended in the wrong direction, suggesting that the league is doing more adjusting than Abreu is. Only 29-years old, Abreu still has time on his side to right the ship, and to show the White Sox he is a long term cog, and that he shouldn't be sold off like Chris Sale and Adam Eaton. He should minimally be able to improve on his numbers from 2016 due to the fact that the league will be pitching him in very hard, while throwing off-speed garbage pitches on 0-2 and 1-2 counts, if Abreu can be more selective and barrel up more pitches, he'll have an easy time launching pitches into orbit.
7. Chris Davis BAL
2016 Stats: .221/.332/.459, 38 HR, 84 RBI, 99 R, 88 BB
2017 Projections: .245/.359/.548, 42 HR, 101 RBI, 98 R, 90 BB
Muscle, muscle, and more muscle; he ate his green beans when his mother told him to. Davis, since breaking in as a full time starter has delivered nothing short of glory in the power department. He can 100% be relied upon for racking up the HR numbers on your fantasy team, but at the expense of a low batting average, thanks to sky high strikeout totals. Davis is your prototypical strikeout or homerun hitter, which screams high-risk, high-reward all over him. His swing can be very long at times, and has a hard time laying off movement pitches, but certainly takes advantage of flat pitches, and can hit them just as hard as about anyone in the sport not named Giancarlo Stanton. He's surrounded by franchise cornerstone Manny Machado, and all-star centerfielder Adam Jones, and will look to break a trend of rising strikeout totals and a falling batting average. Extremely risky, and probably best suited for a utility role rather than being relied upon as starting first basemen on a fantasy team, but if he's on, he's on, and the power numbers could be scary good. Cranked 53 taters in 2013, and he could look to mash pitches close to that total if the Baltimore offense is running at its peak.
8. Brandon Belt SFG
2016 Stats: .275/.394/.474, 17 HR, 82 RBI, 77 R, 104 BB
2017 Projections: .285/.385/.487, 20 HR, 85 RBI, 81 R, 93 BB
Belt might be a surprise pick for many people this high up the list, but he's really settled into a quality everyday player. He doesn't really excel at any one area, but rather provides above-average production across the board in pretty much every category. Belt delivers solid power (41 doubles, 17 HR's last season), while being selective enough at the plate (104 walks to 148 strikeouts) that he won't completely dismantle his offensive profile. Considering he plays in the abnormally large AT&T Park, is countered by the never-prevailing winds from McCovey Cove in right field, Belt is a good bet to post great doubles and walk totals, while seeing average homerun and RBI totals. He is surrounded by a reasonably gifted offense, headlined by Hunter Pence, Brandon Crawford, and Joe Panik, all of which are looking to deliver a fourth World Series to the Giants in a seven year window. Belt doesn't have the most exciting fantasy numbers, but if you're looking for a moderately late round pick the posts consistent numbers and totals, look no further than the University of Texas product.
9. Eric Hosmer KC
2016 Stats: .266/.328/.433, 25 HR, 104 RBI, 80 R, 57 BB
2017 Projections: .281/.360/.458, 27 HR, 98 RBI, 83 R, 60 BB
One of the more interesting players at the position, Hosmer had a bittersweet campaign last year, posting a career high in homeruns, runs batted in, and at bats per homerun, while on the flip side setting a career high in strikeouts for a season, and looking at near career lows in runs scored, doubles, batting average, on base percentage, and WAR. He's an interesting "bounce-back" candidate so to say; his season wasn't horrible, the tick up in homeruns is an encouraging sign that at the age of 27, Hosmer is finally learning to use his power to jump some pitches and pull them over the fence. He had nine less doubles in 2016 than he did in 2015, but that scale back could be an answer for the seven more homeruns he hit in 2016 as opposed to 2015; some of the doubles Hosmer was hitting out to the warning track early in his career are finally carrying a little bit more to the point of maturing into real game power. He has been a gold glove first basemen for the majority of his career, so that will not change much, but he is going into his contract year, so look for him to really spray the ball and incorporate more power into his game, and of course, without sacrificing 31 points in batting average like he did last year. Really well-rounded player, can even swipe a few bags for fantasy owners, at 27-years old he's starting to hit his peak years; he may not have had "Start Me" written on him the past couple years, but the potential numbers he can put up are quite enticing enough to earn him a starting first base or utility gig on someones team.
10. Hanley Ramirez BOS
2016 Stats: .286/.361/.505, 30 HR, 111 RBI, 81 R, 60 BB
2017 Projections: .308/.376/.520, 28 HR, 104 RBI, 78 R, 58 BB
Written off early by many experts, Ramirez really excelled in his second year in Boston, and not only at the plate, but as a leader in the clubhouse and as a solid defender at first base. He'll most likely be looking at a full time transition to designated hitter now that future Hall of Famer David Ortiz hung up his cleats, but that should breath optimism for fantasy owners as Ramirez will be able to focus much more time on his strong stroke swatting pitches all over the diamond. It is fair to argue that Ramirez's numbers last year were inflated due to the fact that Ortiz hit in the three hole right in front of him, and with Ortiz no longer being their, pitchers will now likely attack Ramirez less and pitch to whomever bats behind him. This could intriguingly introduce a higher OBP for Ramirez, and earn him a few more intentional walks, but the full time move to DH, and the larger offensive role that will be demanded of Ramirez makes him a good candidate to have high expectations on. Always known for his gifted bat, Ramirez really put it together last year and mashed 59 extra base hits, and walked away from the season having accumulated a 3.3 offensive WAR with the bat. Much is to be expected and demanded of Ramirez this year, especially after a renaissance year like last, and look for him to step up in prime time and deliver greater overall results in the average department, while really demonstrating his knack of barreling up balls and sending them into the gaps.
That'll conclude this segments thoughts on the top-ten first basemen in the sport today, and the projections and expectations for this season. Check back soon as we look to release the top-ten second basemen in the game today as we get you ready to get a rolling start on the upcoming 2017 fantasy baseball season.
We'll be hitting on the top-ten best first basemen for this upcoming season, while also focusing on some dark horse candidates that look primed to come into their own and capture a bit of stardom.
These rankings are purely based off of offensive capability and talent, while defensive prowess is not taken into consideration due to the fact that most if not all fantasy leagues purely include offensive numbers only in a scale to award points for performances.
1. Paul Goldschmidt ARZ
2016 Stats: .297/.411/.489, 24 HR, 95 RBI, 106 R, 110 BB
2017 Projections: .298/.420/.555, 35 HR, 112 RBI, 108 R, 115 BB
Hands down one of the most elite bats not only at the position, but in general in the sport of baseball for the upcoming season. Prolific hand-to-eye coordination that has helped his pitch selection become so refined and on point that he mirrors a right-handed version of the Canadian Joey Votto. Swings a quick stick, evidenced by never having registered a slugging percentage below .489 in a full season, and has never hit less than 33 doubles. Perhaps the most jaw-dropping stat in his game, Goldschmidt swiped 32 bags last year, which registered ahead of speed demons like Dee Gordon, Mike Trout, and Mookie Betts! Not only is he one of the best hitters at the position, but he's won two gold gloves, and has 99 career steals over six seasons. Plain and simple, he knows how to hit for average, knock runners in, and swat bombs out into the stands, making him the best fantasy bet at the position for this upcoming season; the smart money is on Goldschmidt having a career year at 29-years old.
2. Joey Votto CIN
2016 Stats: .326/.434/.550, 29 HR, 97 RBI, 101 R, 108 BB
2017 Projections: .320/.440/.536, 27 HR, 89 RBI, 97 R, 121 BB
Arguably has the best eye in the sport besides Goldschmidt and Longoria, really knows how to pick pitches to barrel up and put in play, while limiting his swings at pitches outside of the strike zone. Topped out at 37 homeruns in probably his best season back in 2010, while knocking in a career high 113 runs and stealing 16 bags during that year. He has consistently posted well above-average isolated power numbers for his career (.223 ISO career vs. league average .140). Votto won't be swiping double digits bags anytime soon, and most likely peaked back in 2010, but look for him to continue his mastery of the strike zone, and punishing pitchers at the plate. Along with gold glove defense, Votto really is one of the best well-rounded players in the sport, and certainly can anchor any fantasy team to a league championship just based off his ability to make contact and put balls in play at premium velocity; his power levels are just an added benefit and remind fantasy owners just how much of a luxury it is to have someone hit for a league leading average, while delivering consistently in the power department.
3. Miguel Cabrera DET
2016 Stats: .316/.393/.563, 38 HR, 108 RBI, 92 R, 75 BB
2017 Projections: .331/.402/.558, 36 HR, 110 RBI, 101 R, 83 BB
Cabrera hasn't hit below .313 in any season since 2009, which reiterates just how dominant Cabrera has been at a position that has had a lot of turnover in the past decade. One of the few hitters that has figured out the art of hitting, and will be one of the greatest hitters of the modern era. Consistently ranking among the league leaders in most offensive categories, at 33 years of age, Cabrera doesn't seem to be slowing down. Thankfully, Cabrera plays one of the less demanding positions on the diamond at first base, and due to that, he has the ability to really hone in focusing his concentration towards refining his approach at the plate. Cabrera has been attacked away at the plate, only to see him push balls over the firstbasemen's head into right field, while also being jammed inside, to which Cabrera shortens his swings and fights off pitches that travel straight into shallow centerfield. Truly one of the best hitters, and as he ages, as a 13 year veteran, he knows how to work pitchers and look for the pitch he wants. With J.D. Martinez, Victor Martinez, and Nick Castellanos, Miguel should have another superior year as he looks to add to his growing total of 446 career homeruns and a lifetime .321 batting average.
4. Anthony Rizzo CHC
2016 Stats: .292/.385/.544, 32 HR, 109 RBI, 94 R, 74 BB
2017 Projections: .288/.400/.592, 40 HR, 125 RBI, 105 R, 79 BB
Rizzo definitely has some of the best raw talent at the position, and the potential that still lies in his bit is eye-popping considering he's still only 27-years old. The contract that he'll demand from the Cubs will be one for the ages when it comes to first basemen, and his numbers have proved that he's one of the elite performers over the past couple seasons at the position. Having been drafted by the Boston Red Sox, and traded to the San Diego Padres in the Adrian Gonzalez deal, Rizzo was reacquired by Jed Hoyer to lead a star-studded crop of Chicago Cub players finally this past season. Always known for his huge bat, Rizzo has delivered a substantial amount of value with his glove as well, which was duly noted by baseball officials, as Rizzo was officially awarded the 2016 NL Gold Glove at first base. Rizzo delivered on the other side of things with the bat, slugging to the tune of 32 homeruns in 155 games, good for a 18.2 AB/HR, which was a personal best for Rizzo. He added 43 doubles and four triples for a gaudy total of 79 extra base hits, which ranked sixth in all of Major League Baseball this past season. Anthony Rizzo has already put up all-star numbers, but the sky is the limit, especially in a lineup that is led by 2016 NL MVP Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber, Ben Zobrist, and an exciting core of young talent assembled by otherworldly President of Baseball Operations Theo Epstein.
5. Freddie Freeman ATL
2016 Stats: .302/.400/.569, 34 HR, 91 RBI, 102 R, 89 BB
2017 Projections: .291/.389/.551, 32 HR, 100 RBI, 98 R, 85 BB
Despite playing for one of the worst teams in baseball in 2016, Freeman still delivered his year-in and year-out fantastic stats, cranking a career high 34 big fly's and recording a 6.5 WAR. A lean, mean machine at 6'5", and 225 lbs, Freeman teed off on pitchers last season, although having played for Braves team that scored the second fewest runs in the MLB, only ahead of the inter-divison rival Phillies. Freeman put up really intriguing power numbers this past year, really locking in at a career low 17.3 AB/HR, with a .267 ISO that was 71 points higher than his previous career best. It can be assumed that some regression may potentially follow this season after a career year last year, and Freeman may even want to save the best for last as the Braves have one of the best up-and-coming teams in baseball, thanks to their jaded crop of minor league talent that ranks as some of the best in the game, led by Dansby Swanson, Ender Inciarte, and Ozzie Albies. Look for Freddie Freeman to put up more gaudy numbers, especially considering Atlanta's lineup won't be as dreadful as last year, and their new stadium they'll be debuting in this year.
6. Jose Abreu CHW
2016 Stats: .293/.353/.468, 25 HR, 100 RBI, 67 R, 47 BB
2017 Projections: .283/.339/.491, 27 HR, 92 RBI, 61 R, 39 BB
Openly known as a free swinger since coming over from Cuba, Abreu had a great deal of hype following him over to the states. He came with a lightning quick stick that produced globs of power, but he undoubtedly had some swing-and-miss questions arise about his game, and in his three years in the MLB, the stats have spoken for themselves. Abreu has certainly put up above-average offensive numbers in pretty much category, and would be higher on the list if he replicated his first years results over the past two seasons, but with more exposure to pitchers, and scouting reports, teams have learned how to effectively pitch Abreu to limit the damage he does against pitchers. Over the past three seasons, Abreu's batting averages, homeruns, ISO, AB/HR, XBH, and total bases have all trended in the wrong direction, suggesting that the league is doing more adjusting than Abreu is. Only 29-years old, Abreu still has time on his side to right the ship, and to show the White Sox he is a long term cog, and that he shouldn't be sold off like Chris Sale and Adam Eaton. He should minimally be able to improve on his numbers from 2016 due to the fact that the league will be pitching him in very hard, while throwing off-speed garbage pitches on 0-2 and 1-2 counts, if Abreu can be more selective and barrel up more pitches, he'll have an easy time launching pitches into orbit.
7. Chris Davis BAL
2016 Stats: .221/.332/.459, 38 HR, 84 RBI, 99 R, 88 BB
2017 Projections: .245/.359/.548, 42 HR, 101 RBI, 98 R, 90 BB
Muscle, muscle, and more muscle; he ate his green beans when his mother told him to. Davis, since breaking in as a full time starter has delivered nothing short of glory in the power department. He can 100% be relied upon for racking up the HR numbers on your fantasy team, but at the expense of a low batting average, thanks to sky high strikeout totals. Davis is your prototypical strikeout or homerun hitter, which screams high-risk, high-reward all over him. His swing can be very long at times, and has a hard time laying off movement pitches, but certainly takes advantage of flat pitches, and can hit them just as hard as about anyone in the sport not named Giancarlo Stanton. He's surrounded by franchise cornerstone Manny Machado, and all-star centerfielder Adam Jones, and will look to break a trend of rising strikeout totals and a falling batting average. Extremely risky, and probably best suited for a utility role rather than being relied upon as starting first basemen on a fantasy team, but if he's on, he's on, and the power numbers could be scary good. Cranked 53 taters in 2013, and he could look to mash pitches close to that total if the Baltimore offense is running at its peak.
8. Brandon Belt SFG
2016 Stats: .275/.394/.474, 17 HR, 82 RBI, 77 R, 104 BB
2017 Projections: .285/.385/.487, 20 HR, 85 RBI, 81 R, 93 BB
Belt might be a surprise pick for many people this high up the list, but he's really settled into a quality everyday player. He doesn't really excel at any one area, but rather provides above-average production across the board in pretty much every category. Belt delivers solid power (41 doubles, 17 HR's last season), while being selective enough at the plate (104 walks to 148 strikeouts) that he won't completely dismantle his offensive profile. Considering he plays in the abnormally large AT&T Park, is countered by the never-prevailing winds from McCovey Cove in right field, Belt is a good bet to post great doubles and walk totals, while seeing average homerun and RBI totals. He is surrounded by a reasonably gifted offense, headlined by Hunter Pence, Brandon Crawford, and Joe Panik, all of which are looking to deliver a fourth World Series to the Giants in a seven year window. Belt doesn't have the most exciting fantasy numbers, but if you're looking for a moderately late round pick the posts consistent numbers and totals, look no further than the University of Texas product.
9. Eric Hosmer KC
2016 Stats: .266/.328/.433, 25 HR, 104 RBI, 80 R, 57 BB
2017 Projections: .281/.360/.458, 27 HR, 98 RBI, 83 R, 60 BB
One of the more interesting players at the position, Hosmer had a bittersweet campaign last year, posting a career high in homeruns, runs batted in, and at bats per homerun, while on the flip side setting a career high in strikeouts for a season, and looking at near career lows in runs scored, doubles, batting average, on base percentage, and WAR. He's an interesting "bounce-back" candidate so to say; his season wasn't horrible, the tick up in homeruns is an encouraging sign that at the age of 27, Hosmer is finally learning to use his power to jump some pitches and pull them over the fence. He had nine less doubles in 2016 than he did in 2015, but that scale back could be an answer for the seven more homeruns he hit in 2016 as opposed to 2015; some of the doubles Hosmer was hitting out to the warning track early in his career are finally carrying a little bit more to the point of maturing into real game power. He has been a gold glove first basemen for the majority of his career, so that will not change much, but he is going into his contract year, so look for him to really spray the ball and incorporate more power into his game, and of course, without sacrificing 31 points in batting average like he did last year. Really well-rounded player, can even swipe a few bags for fantasy owners, at 27-years old he's starting to hit his peak years; he may not have had "Start Me" written on him the past couple years, but the potential numbers he can put up are quite enticing enough to earn him a starting first base or utility gig on someones team.
10. Hanley Ramirez BOS
2016 Stats: .286/.361/.505, 30 HR, 111 RBI, 81 R, 60 BB
2017 Projections: .308/.376/.520, 28 HR, 104 RBI, 78 R, 58 BB
Written off early by many experts, Ramirez really excelled in his second year in Boston, and not only at the plate, but as a leader in the clubhouse and as a solid defender at first base. He'll most likely be looking at a full time transition to designated hitter now that future Hall of Famer David Ortiz hung up his cleats, but that should breath optimism for fantasy owners as Ramirez will be able to focus much more time on his strong stroke swatting pitches all over the diamond. It is fair to argue that Ramirez's numbers last year were inflated due to the fact that Ortiz hit in the three hole right in front of him, and with Ortiz no longer being their, pitchers will now likely attack Ramirez less and pitch to whomever bats behind him. This could intriguingly introduce a higher OBP for Ramirez, and earn him a few more intentional walks, but the full time move to DH, and the larger offensive role that will be demanded of Ramirez makes him a good candidate to have high expectations on. Always known for his gifted bat, Ramirez really put it together last year and mashed 59 extra base hits, and walked away from the season having accumulated a 3.3 offensive WAR with the bat. Much is to be expected and demanded of Ramirez this year, especially after a renaissance year like last, and look for him to step up in prime time and deliver greater overall results in the average department, while really demonstrating his knack of barreling up balls and sending them into the gaps.
That'll conclude this segments thoughts on the top-ten first basemen in the sport today, and the projections and expectations for this season. Check back soon as we look to release the top-ten second basemen in the game today as we get you ready to get a rolling start on the upcoming 2017 fantasy baseball season.
Reflections on the 2016-2017 NFL Season
Let's start off by saying how this year defied all expectations. From the Patriots finishing 14-2, to two rookies leading Dallas to its first number one seed since 2007. We've seen teams that were suppose to dominate be marred by injuries and bad luck, and teams that dug themselves out of very dismal situations. If we have learned anything from this year of football, it is to never underestimated Bill Belichick and have an eye for promising rookies.
Unfortunately for Cowboys fans, their dreams of witnessing a rookie take their team to the Super Bowl have been lost. Ezekiel Elliot rushed for 157 yds and Prescott threw for 3 touchdowns in a 34-31 thriller. Together this season they've broken 5 records. Dak ties Big Ben Roethlisberger for most regular season wins by a rookie, and having the best completion percentage and passer rating of any rookie QB ever! Ezekiel Elliot was the first rookie to lead the NFL in rushing yards, the last was Edgerrin James in 1999. These are stats the rest of the NFL should be terrified of, if the Cowboys can perform this great with, having the best record in the NFC with two rookies, what will they do when Dak and Zeke become veterans with two or three years of refinement and practice. The future looks great for the Cowboys, as the have finally found a true franchise quarterback in Dak Prescott, no disrespect to Tony Romo, who is aging and whose best years are behind him.
As I write this, the New England Patriots are set to meet the Pittsburgh Steelers in Foxborough, where the Patriots could potentially see a fifth Super Bowl. Tom Brady has not lost a step despite Gronkowski being injured. Thankfully, he has new receivers Michael Floyd and Chris Hogan as well as Martellus Bennett who have stepped up fill in those gaps. Edelman still is his number but a quarterback like Touchdown Tom can make it happen with just about anyone. It was anticipated that the Patriots would be 12-4 by the end of the season with Tom Brady suspended and Gronk being out the beginning of the season. Those predictions could not be further from the truth as the Patriots won without Gronk, and while using a second and then a third string QB. If one thing was consistent about the AFC was that no matter what happened, the Patriots kept winning. From this season it seems a little clearer the direction of the Patriots when Brady does inevitably retire. Garoppolo has done a tremendous job in his first three starts, Gronkowski won't be going anywhere, and still has at least five more years of play time left. Along with some improvement to the receiver corps, which will certainly happen under Belichick, the Patriots will fair good without Brady, although, it will be a sad day indeed.
This season has a little bit of everything for veteran fans of football as well as new comers to the sport. We saw a proven star excel in Tom Brady and the Patriots, and we saw two rookies drive for greatness in what is perhaps the greatest season for the Cowboys in fifteen years. There was great showcases for new teams who never really got much of the spotlight, such as the Raiders and the Dolphins. Although, these teams in the end did not succeed, it is good to see new competitors rise above dismissal. It is a shame to see the Panthers and Cardinals perform so poorly this year after breakout performances the year before, with both teams reaching the NFC Championship. Hopefully, the rise of the Cowboys and the Packers will be a game changer for the NFC. As this year as shown us, anything can happen. Teams can and will rise above criticism, and overhype can be dangerous if a team cannot live up to monumental expectations.
Unfortunately for Cowboys fans, their dreams of witnessing a rookie take their team to the Super Bowl have been lost. Ezekiel Elliot rushed for 157 yds and Prescott threw for 3 touchdowns in a 34-31 thriller. Together this season they've broken 5 records. Dak ties Big Ben Roethlisberger for most regular season wins by a rookie, and having the best completion percentage and passer rating of any rookie QB ever! Ezekiel Elliot was the first rookie to lead the NFL in rushing yards, the last was Edgerrin James in 1999. These are stats the rest of the NFL should be terrified of, if the Cowboys can perform this great with, having the best record in the NFC with two rookies, what will they do when Dak and Zeke become veterans with two or three years of refinement and practice. The future looks great for the Cowboys, as the have finally found a true franchise quarterback in Dak Prescott, no disrespect to Tony Romo, who is aging and whose best years are behind him.
As I write this, the New England Patriots are set to meet the Pittsburgh Steelers in Foxborough, where the Patriots could potentially see a fifth Super Bowl. Tom Brady has not lost a step despite Gronkowski being injured. Thankfully, he has new receivers Michael Floyd and Chris Hogan as well as Martellus Bennett who have stepped up fill in those gaps. Edelman still is his number but a quarterback like Touchdown Tom can make it happen with just about anyone. It was anticipated that the Patriots would be 12-4 by the end of the season with Tom Brady suspended and Gronk being out the beginning of the season. Those predictions could not be further from the truth as the Patriots won without Gronk, and while using a second and then a third string QB. If one thing was consistent about the AFC was that no matter what happened, the Patriots kept winning. From this season it seems a little clearer the direction of the Patriots when Brady does inevitably retire. Garoppolo has done a tremendous job in his first three starts, Gronkowski won't be going anywhere, and still has at least five more years of play time left. Along with some improvement to the receiver corps, which will certainly happen under Belichick, the Patriots will fair good without Brady, although, it will be a sad day indeed.
This season has a little bit of everything for veteran fans of football as well as new comers to the sport. We saw a proven star excel in Tom Brady and the Patriots, and we saw two rookies drive for greatness in what is perhaps the greatest season for the Cowboys in fifteen years. There was great showcases for new teams who never really got much of the spotlight, such as the Raiders and the Dolphins. Although, these teams in the end did not succeed, it is good to see new competitors rise above dismissal. It is a shame to see the Panthers and Cardinals perform so poorly this year after breakout performances the year before, with both teams reaching the NFC Championship. Hopefully, the rise of the Cowboys and the Packers will be a game changer for the NFC. As this year as shown us, anything can happen. Teams can and will rise above criticism, and overhype can be dangerous if a team cannot live up to monumental expectations.
Thursday, January 12, 2017
MLB Fantasy Rankings 2017: Catchers
The sweet feeling of joy is starting to warm in the air, as pitchers and catchers are slatted to start reporting towards the middle of February, leaving the baseball community with about four more weeks of anxiously twiddling our thumbs. Position players report shortly after, and teams have full squads by the end of February as all 30 team prepare for their respective spring training schedules, either in the Grapefruit or Cactus League. Both leagues are made of an assorted mix of American and National league teams, breeding a more friendly interleague feel and frenzy, much more apparent than during regular season games. With teams slowly easing pitchers back into routines to adjust arm strength and durability, and position players lock in their pitch recognition and timing at the plate, many in the fantasy baseball business look out for any alarming or startling news during the month of March to adjust their predictions and preferred draftees for the upcoming fantasy season. With baseball only on the upswing from here, it's noteworthy and creeping up to be that time of year where positional rankings and projections can start to be drawn out and mapped. With each position sure to get plenty of attention, things will be jump started by perhaps the most important position on the diamond: catchers.
When looking at positional rankings and projections, defensive prowess and ability are not taken into account due to the fact that most fantasy leagues only account for offensive statistics.
For the most part, both American and National league players are included in most draft pools, unless certain leagues are marked American or National league players only, in which case drafters are only allowed to select from the respective league. As each season is full of offensive outbursts and surprises (see: Gary Sanchez and Sandy Leon), there is just as fair a share of disappointments and unforecasted injuries (see: Kyle Schwarber and Yan Gomes).
With the 2017 season just on the brink of breaking the horizon, it's time to jump into catcher rankings for the upcoming season.
1. Buster Posey SF
2016 Stats: .288/.362/.434, 14 HR, 80 RBI, 82 R, 64 BB
2017 Projections: .299/.370/.454, 19 HR, 94 RBI, 75 R, 68 BB
Posey is the most likely candidate to lead in at-bats and plate appearances of any qualified catcher, meaning that he has the greatest chance to rack up the most overall fantasy points. Primed to sit in the clean up spot, and with Denard Span, Joe Panik, and Brandon Belt hitting just ahead of him, Posey definitely has an above average chance at collecting at least 80 RBI's, As long as he stays healthy and fresh, and especially with manager Bruce Bochy rotating Posey between catcher and first base as he ages, Posey, still only 30 years old, has all the makings of an elite bat at the position. Coming off his lowest single season average (.288), look for him to rebound in the Bay Area and put up his old stats and regain his all-star form.
2. Jonathan Lucroy TEX
2016 Stats: .292/..355/.500, 24 HR, 81 RBI, 67 R, 47 BB
2017 Projections: .278/.359/.521, 25 HR, 101 RBI, 77 R, 6 SB
Big John Lucroy came over from the Brewers to the Rangers and pretty much set the entire world on fire last year, hitting a career high 24 HR's after never having eclipsed 18 HR's. A defensively sound catcher, but by far better known for his gifted bat, now in a potent Texas lineup, Lucroy should be primed to set career highs in runs scored, slugging percentage, and perhaps even home runs. One of the best hitting catchers in the MLB, Lucroy should come off the board quick for a position that truly lacks quality depth. Look for a repeat of last years numbers, or maybe even a little more, and don't pass up the opportunity to get arguably the best hitting catcher on the market. It would be smart to be bullish on Lucroy after his last season.
3. Russell Martin TOR
2016 Stats: .231/.335/.398, 20 HR, 74 RBI, 62 R, 64 BB
2017 Projections: .245/.342/.424, 22 HR, 68 RBI, 54 R, 53 BB
Martin has been a solid contributor behind the plate for the majority of his career, having really peaked when playing for the Pirates in 2014, where he hit .290 and had an OBP of .402, while contributing 5.5 WAR. With a much more depleted Blue Jays lineup, having lost Edwin Encarnacion and looking at the potential exit of Jose Bautista, Martin may have a tougher time knocking in runs, and may be pitched to more precisely with opposing pitching staffs no longer needing to focus on Encarnacion and Bautista has focal points. He has a knack for reading pitches and working counts, while only swinging at pitches that within the strike zone. With Kendrys Morales, Josh Donaldson, and Devin Travis leading the Jays lineup, Martin should have a solid year, but at 33 years old, his days of hitting for 20+ home runs may start becoming a thing of the past.
4. Salvador Perez KC
2016 Stats: .247/.288/.438, 22 HR, 64 RBI, 57 R, 22 BB
2017 Projections: .259/.301/.443, 21 HR, 75 RBI, 49 R, 27 BB
Perez pretty much hit rock bottom last year with the bat, setting personal worsts in average, hits, and most alarmingly of all, strikeouts. He has never really been relied upon to post anything close to average OBP numbers, but having posted sub-.300 OBP's in three consecutive seasons now, look for the Kansas City staff to really work the kinks out for Perez, who surprisingly is still only 26. Salvy should look to continue supplying above-average power numbers in the home run department, but if there is an ascent in the batting average and OBP areas, this could inversely affect his power numbers while he focuses on his on base abilities. Always known for his superb glove and cannon that caught 48.1% of thefts last season, Perez doesn't look to be slowing down with his catching skills. The real question for fantasy owners is will Perez continue the trend of middling average and OBP numbers, or will he surface as a reliable and top-three fantasy option with stable on-base numbers as a premium power threat.
5. Kyle Schwarber CHC
2016 Stats: DNP (Did Not Play); injured
2017 Projections: .268/.373/.534. 31 HR, 98 RBI, 92 R, 76 BB
This years diamond in the rough, the needle in the haystack that many have forgotten about; most analysts would probably argue that Schwarber deserves to be higher on the list, but considering he his coming back from almost a year-long lay off after knee surgery, things could conceivably be slow to start for the catcher turned outfielder. While manager Joe Maddon has floated the idea of hitting Schwarber at or near the top of a dangerous Cubs lineup, it is yet to be seen whether his words will translate into actual lineup changes. He undeniably has the makings of a super-star, and his built like that of an NFL linebacker, Schwarber possesses all the necessary tools to put up scary numbers against opposing pitchers. Already a polished bat coming out of the University of Indiana, Schwarber accounted for a .487 slugging percentage in his freshman campaign back in 2015, having hit 16 home runs against major league pitching. The fantasy numbers could be scary, and he easily could be atop the list for best catcher by the end of the 2017 season; it's easy to dream on the numbers Schwarber could post, but it'll take more than an encouraging rookie campaign and world series appearance to prove his ability at the major league level.
6. Gary Sanchez NYY
2016 Stats: .299/.376/.657, 20 HR, 42 RBI, 34 R, 24 BB
2017 Projections: .272/.338/.470, 27 HR, 76 RBI, 70 RBI, 58 BB
What appears to be unsustainable success will attempt to be replicated by one of the more promising young players in the game today, and Sanchez will try to prove pundits wrong, and show that his titanium strength is able to reproduce last seasons numbers. His first full taste of major league action, on top of the blunder of having to lead a faltering pitching staff, Sanchez checked off all the boxes in what can be coined as a eye-opening season for the Yankee backstop. While it's hard to believe Sanchez will be able to come close to posting the numbers he did last season as pitchers have more to go off of now with a scouting report, Sanchez should look nothing short of producing anything less than 20 home runs next season, especially considering he'll be playing half of his games in the hitter friendly confines of Yankee stadium. It's hard to tell if there'll be a significant dip in the OBP department if pitchers jam him in, but Sanchez has the 6'2", 230 lb build to wreck opposing pitchers when they know they've made a huge mistake down the middle of the pipe.
7. Brian McCann HOU
2016 Stats: .242/.335/.413, 20 HR, 58 RBI, 56 R, 54 BB
2017 Projections: .224/.321/.408, 18 HR, 49 RBI, 41 R, 48 BB
I'm not quite as optimistic about McCann as I am others here on the list. He is a proven veteran that knows how to lead a pitching staff, and certainly crush pitches when he needs to, as he's only posted a sub-20 HR campaign once in his career (he hit 18 HR in 2007). While it maybe safe to assume that McCann will post 20 HR's as likely as it'll be that the sun will come up tomorrow morning, he's been declining ever since he signed his 5-year deal with the Yankees at the tail end of 2013, and will be eased into a more comfortable role with a Houston team that is one of the youngest in the league. Forming something reminiscent to a platoon with lumberjack Evan Gattis, McCann may not see as many at-bats as he's been used to, but on the bright side he will certainly be seeing more days at first base and designated hitter than catcher, and that may breed optimism for some fantasy players looking to buy low on a player with low expectations. This is certainly a see-saw option that could go either way, a backup option may be smart to store away on the bench.
8. Stephen Vogt OAK
2016 Stats: .251/.305/.406, 14 HR, 56 RBI, 54 R, 35 BB
2017 Projections: .259/.320/.421, 16 HR, 54 RBI, 55 R, 45 BB
A late bloomer, Vogt established himself as an all-star catching option the past two seasons, hitting a combined .256 with 32 big flies, 127 RBI's, and 112 runs scored, all good for six percent above league average. Going into his age 32 season, Vogt is on the wrong side of 30, but still presents fantasy owners with a decent chance of outperforming most of the market at the catcher position, especially considering he swings the stick from the left side, historically providing better numbers against a league that has substantially more right-handed pitchers than left-handed. While he does play in the spacious Oakland Colosseum, Vogt represents a rather sturdy option since entering the league full-time back in 2014. He obviously isn't the best catching option, but can go on prolonged stretches that help fantasy owners breathe a sigh of relief for drafting the catcher. Mid-round talent, don't draft him too high, but definitely don't wait to late for the quality catching option.
9. Yadier Molina STL
2016 Stats: .307/.360/.427, 8 HR, 58 RBI, 56 R, 39 BB
2017 Projections: .289/.347/.397, 7 HR, 55 R, 32 BB
If there was such thing as a league for defensive standouts and points handed out for blocking balls and pitch framing, Yadi would be the first catcher to come off the board. At 34 years old, Molina is towards the tail end of his career, and has taken a beating having caught at least 100 games in 12 straight seasons. Molina has never been a top fantasy option for power, as he's only hit 20 bombs once in his career (his best offensive year, Yadi hit .315 with 22 HR and 76 RBI), Molina can still be called upon to barrel up the ball and work counts to contribute solid fantasy points. Yadi has safely stayed above the .270 line for six seasons now, and going into his thirteenth year, the expectations appear to be no different. It is fair to assume Molina will be getting more off days now, and considering he plays in the National league, Molina will not have the advantage of being able to stay in the lineup as the designated hitter. He shouldn't anything near double digit home runs, but if he does, just run with it, but a .280 and above average should be expected from Molina.
10. J.T. Realmuto MIA
2016 Stats: .303/.343/.428, 11 HR, 48 RBI, 60 R, 28 BB
2017 Projections: .278/.309/.414, 14 HR, 58 RBI, 67 R, 23 BB
Definitely one of the better breakout stories in the 2016 season, Realmuto surprised many when he started hitting leadoff as a catcher. His OBP was a product of an inflated average, and with the lack of walks in his early career, if Realmuto doesn't work counts and select his pitches, when the going gets tough, so will the OBP. He's still developing his power at 25 years old, but playing in Miami and they're humungous park, one can't expect a big step up in the power department, but some doubles should stretch in home runs. A versatile and well-rounded athlete, Realmuto padded his record with 12 stolen bases last year, proving to be one of the very few catching options that is quite good on the base paths. Realmuto is young, and if he can attack the holes in his game now, and develop into a credible catcher, the sky is the limit for the former third round pick.
This'll conclude the list of the current top-ten catching options in the game, we'll be hitting on the other positions to come very soon.
Sunday, January 8, 2017
Hot Stove Off-Season Update January
After the conclusion of the 2016 MLB World Series between the Cleveland Indians, and the Chicago Cubs, much news, as usual, was made of potential offseason moves clubs would make to bolster their respective rosters. A flurry of sprinkles and a scattering of thunderous snowstorms have taken this offseason by storm, with a variety of small and large market moves having taken place.
Former Toronto Blue Jays, and current Cleveland Indians designated hitter Edwin Encarnacion, signed a 3-year $60MM deal with a club option for a fourth year just towards the middle of the winter. Encarnacion, who by many, was pegged to land with the Boston Red Sox as the successor all-time great David Ortiz, was even endorsed by Ortiz himself, but still apparently did not receive an enticing offer from Dave Dombrowski and John Henry's Red Sox.
Less heralded and offensively inferior Dextor Fowler, who to be fair offers an extremely different skill set that potentially suits may teams more than Encarnacions power abilities, found himself a new home by inking a five-year $82.5MM contract with the St. Louis Cardinals. Armed with former silver slugger Matt Carpenter, breakout rookie Aledmys Diaz, and young standouts Stephen Piscotty and Randal Grichuk, Fowler has an impressive core of offensive potential around him to help to continue producing 80+ runs scored and a .340+ OBP in his new Cardinal red uniform.
Rich Hill, Kenley Jansen, and Justin Turner all returned to the Los Angeles Dodgers after testing the free agent market for a few months, and finding a barren landscape of attractive offers, only to be lured back to the Dodgers. Hill, 36, proved not to be a one-year wonder, and replicated his 2015 results to the tune of a 2.12 ERA, while only surrendering 77 hits in just over 110 innings pitched. Jansen, a former minor league catcher, currently possesses a mid-high 90's fastball, paired with a devastating sinker that helped him to land a 5-year $80MM deal as an all-star closer testing the open market. Jansen had perhaps his finest season yet in the senior circuit, registering a 1.83 ERA, 47 saves, a 13.63 K/9, an an eye-popping 0.67 WHIP. Lastly, starting third basemen Justin Turner, on the heels of a 27 HR/90 RBI campaign, aided by his highest WAR (5.0) in his career, was re-signed to a 4-year $64MM deal as well, and finished President of Baseball Operations Christmas shopping of bringing back the three integral members of the Dodgers 2016 playoff run.
Perhaps the icing on the cake of the hot stove season, ace left-hander Chris Sale was traded to the Boston Red Sox for a quartet of exciting prospects, headlined by one of the finest and highest ceiling prospects in minor league baseball, Yoan Moncada. Not to be forgotten, flamethrower Michael Kopech, as well as Luis Alexander Basabe were booked tickets to Chicago alongside Moncada as new members of the Chicago White Sox organization, shedding their red pair of socks, for a darker black pair. Sale brings his usual mid 90's fastball, and sweeping curveball to Boston to face stiffer competition, in a potent Toronto Blue Jays lineup at Roger's Centre, and an always fearsome, long ball oriented Baltimore Orioles lineup, anchored by Chris Davis and Manny Machado. While the move was questionable on many accounts due to Boston's gluttony of quality starting pitchers, it would appear the time is now to go fetch a World Series for the Boston sports franchise that last won the fall baseball classic in 2013 against the St. Louis Cardinals.
With the market for relief pitchers as hot and high as ever, demand all across the game has increased, and as a result, the price tag on players, even bench bats, has hit an all time high. While many teams prioritize swapping salaries for fresh faces and changes of scenery, the better answer may lay wide in the open in the free agent market, where right fielder Jose Bautista has remained stationary all winter long. Most certainly predicted to land with an American League club due to the designated hitter option, Bautista may be looking at the Rangers or Rays as the most likely landing spots to rebuild his offensive profile to better lineup for a longer-term contract next offseason. At the ripe age of 36, age is not on Bautista's side, but with as keen an eye as anyone in the game, and power always an alluring and eye-catching facet of baseball, Bautista may not be nostalgically sitting on the free agent market for much longer.
With pitchers and catchers looking to report towards the tail end of February, baseball is quickly approaching, and is at the time of year when fans start to toss and turn in excitement over baseballs whizzing through the air soon. While the offseason is a fun time to follow and catchup on rosters and team statistics, the real baseball is approaching quickly, and is just as anxious as you and me to get here mightily quick.
Former Toronto Blue Jays, and current Cleveland Indians designated hitter Edwin Encarnacion, signed a 3-year $60MM deal with a club option for a fourth year just towards the middle of the winter. Encarnacion, who by many, was pegged to land with the Boston Red Sox as the successor all-time great David Ortiz, was even endorsed by Ortiz himself, but still apparently did not receive an enticing offer from Dave Dombrowski and John Henry's Red Sox.
Less heralded and offensively inferior Dextor Fowler, who to be fair offers an extremely different skill set that potentially suits may teams more than Encarnacions power abilities, found himself a new home by inking a five-year $82.5MM contract with the St. Louis Cardinals. Armed with former silver slugger Matt Carpenter, breakout rookie Aledmys Diaz, and young standouts Stephen Piscotty and Randal Grichuk, Fowler has an impressive core of offensive potential around him to help to continue producing 80+ runs scored and a .340+ OBP in his new Cardinal red uniform.
Rich Hill, Kenley Jansen, and Justin Turner all returned to the Los Angeles Dodgers after testing the free agent market for a few months, and finding a barren landscape of attractive offers, only to be lured back to the Dodgers. Hill, 36, proved not to be a one-year wonder, and replicated his 2015 results to the tune of a 2.12 ERA, while only surrendering 77 hits in just over 110 innings pitched. Jansen, a former minor league catcher, currently possesses a mid-high 90's fastball, paired with a devastating sinker that helped him to land a 5-year $80MM deal as an all-star closer testing the open market. Jansen had perhaps his finest season yet in the senior circuit, registering a 1.83 ERA, 47 saves, a 13.63 K/9, an an eye-popping 0.67 WHIP. Lastly, starting third basemen Justin Turner, on the heels of a 27 HR/90 RBI campaign, aided by his highest WAR (5.0) in his career, was re-signed to a 4-year $64MM deal as well, and finished President of Baseball Operations Christmas shopping of bringing back the three integral members of the Dodgers 2016 playoff run.
Perhaps the icing on the cake of the hot stove season, ace left-hander Chris Sale was traded to the Boston Red Sox for a quartet of exciting prospects, headlined by one of the finest and highest ceiling prospects in minor league baseball, Yoan Moncada. Not to be forgotten, flamethrower Michael Kopech, as well as Luis Alexander Basabe were booked tickets to Chicago alongside Moncada as new members of the Chicago White Sox organization, shedding their red pair of socks, for a darker black pair. Sale brings his usual mid 90's fastball, and sweeping curveball to Boston to face stiffer competition, in a potent Toronto Blue Jays lineup at Roger's Centre, and an always fearsome, long ball oriented Baltimore Orioles lineup, anchored by Chris Davis and Manny Machado. While the move was questionable on many accounts due to Boston's gluttony of quality starting pitchers, it would appear the time is now to go fetch a World Series for the Boston sports franchise that last won the fall baseball classic in 2013 against the St. Louis Cardinals.
With the market for relief pitchers as hot and high as ever, demand all across the game has increased, and as a result, the price tag on players, even bench bats, has hit an all time high. While many teams prioritize swapping salaries for fresh faces and changes of scenery, the better answer may lay wide in the open in the free agent market, where right fielder Jose Bautista has remained stationary all winter long. Most certainly predicted to land with an American League club due to the designated hitter option, Bautista may be looking at the Rangers or Rays as the most likely landing spots to rebuild his offensive profile to better lineup for a longer-term contract next offseason. At the ripe age of 36, age is not on Bautista's side, but with as keen an eye as anyone in the game, and power always an alluring and eye-catching facet of baseball, Bautista may not be nostalgically sitting on the free agent market for much longer.
With pitchers and catchers looking to report towards the tail end of February, baseball is quickly approaching, and is at the time of year when fans start to toss and turn in excitement over baseballs whizzing through the air soon. While the offseason is a fun time to follow and catchup on rosters and team statistics, the real baseball is approaching quickly, and is just as anxious as you and me to get here mightily quick.
Monday, January 2, 2017
What Would Jose Quintana Trade Look Like?
With ace Chris Sale now off the board after being shipped to Boston for a package of enticing prospects, the attention has turned to Sale's former teammate and White Sox workhorse Jose Quintana. White Sox management has apparently declared a complete teardown of the current Chicago team, trading away Sale and right-fielder Adam Eaton for a prized collection of prospects, that now place Chicago in the conversation for one of the best farm systems in the MLB. Speculation has arisen over the possibility of building block and top first basemen Jose Abreu being dealt, as well as late inning ace David Robertson, and former Homerun Derby Champion Todd Frazier. There is a wide consensus that if not now, this tandem of players may be dealt at the upcoming summer non-waiver trade deadline, making for an even more intriguing roster construction for Rick Hahn and co. Having finished at no better than 4th place in the American League Central in the past three seasons, and never eclipsing more than 78 wins during that same period, a full teardown for the White Sox appeared inevitable with the central division growing stronger each of the past couple seasons. White Sox fans may quiver and toss in desperation at the fact of Quintana and Abreu being dealt away just to prolong their drought of becoming a meaningful force in the American League, but the return for such players could certainly make the future as bright as ever for the pale hose. It may be a pipe dream for teams to think about acquiring Jose Quintana, but the fact of reality is if Chris Sale can be shipped off in the span of a couple days of negotiation, Jose Quintana can be dealt in just as short a period of time if the return is right.
It is very true that teams may never have enough pitching, especially in the rotation, and many teams around the league have a clear need for a top-of-the-rotation arm that obviously will cost a pretty penny, but ensure a quality arm is able to provide ample innings. The Angels, Braves, Astros, and Orioles are just a few teams that for the moment lack a true ace at the top of their rotations; some teams simply don't possess an ace, while others having their bulldogs recovering from injuries. Teams that fit the bill to acquire Jose Quintana have the appropriate crop of talent to fabricate an irresistible offer to the White Sox, but the question becomes who exactly is willing to give up the farm for a proven arm?
The White Sox will be looking for anything close or near to what they received for Sale, and by no means is Jose Quintana a Chris Sale; Quintana is very good, but Sale is elite, and due to the lack of sturdy, seasoned rotation arms that the White Sox have, an overwhelming offer may need to be presented to the White Sox for them to budge on Quintana. It is worth delving into the effectivity of both Sale and Quintana to help represent what a fair return may be for the White Sox to cash in on. Over Quintana's entire 951 major league innings, he has thus far posted a 3.41 era, while putting up an almost identical 3.47 fip, which would suggest Quintana is neither outperforming his results or experiencing bizarre misfortunes when on the mound. He has walked an average of 2.2 batters per nine innings over his career, which is better than league average, and allows 8.9 hits per nine innings. His overall collection of work is roughly 18% better than the league average pitcher, putting him at or near a respectable no. 2 or 3 starting pitcher.
Chris Sale, on the other hand, has delivered 1110 innings pitched, and has pitched to the tune of an even 3.00 era, with his fip coming in at 3.06; no outliers appear present, like Quintana he has true talent. Sale sits at 2.1 walks per nine innings, and separates himself drastically from Quintana in the hits allowed department, only having surrendered 7.5 hits per nine innings in his young career thus far. Sale is able to dial his fastball up into the high nineties, with a sweeping slider that helps him to not only keep men off base, but to year-in and year-out fight for the strikeout crown. Over his career, Sale has struck out 10.1 batters per nine innings, but interestingly enough, Quintana, even with his highest average fastball being 2.5 miles per hour slower than Sales, is able to register an exactly identical 10.1 K/9 to Sale's. When looking at the bigger picture, both pitchers throw their fastball over 49% of the time, with their curveball/slider dominating at over 23% of the time, and the change-up for Quintana over 9% (Sale's changeup usage is closer to 21%). Having pitched for the same team, it makes sense that under the same pitching coach, both pitchers have identical repertoires, and pitch usage statistics. At the end of the day, Sale has been 35% better than league average, which is far better than Quintana's 18%. Sale's percentage of total starts that are quality starts is at 74%, as opposed to Quintana's 64%. Sale also has a higher swinging strike percentage (19.6%) to Quintana's numbers (14.7%). Both pitchers received close to identical run-support and ballpark factors, so it would seem that overall Chris Sale has outperformed Quintana simply due to skill. That doesn't take away from the fact that Quintana is a very good pitcher, and the White Sox should still receive a very good return if they are to trade him, but maybe not quite a king's ransom.
A boat of quality prospects would surely get the job done to acquire Quintana, but observing the return Chicago claimed for Sale, which was headlined by baseballs number one prospect, Yoan Moncada, and top thirty prospect, starting pitcher Michael Kopech, a return for Quintana could be along the lines of two-three top one hundred prospects. If not a single top twenty-five prospect, Hahn could look for a broader collection of talent to collect and wait to mature, but with the outfield situation looking murky in the future, possibly a Cody Bellinger from the Los Angeles Dodgers, or a Clint Frazier from the Yankees, two teams that have been mentioned aside the White Sox, could get a talks started between organizations. Both the Dodgers and Padres have a bright, young group of outfielders in their minor league system, featured by Bellinger and Alex Verdugo with the Dodgers, and Manuel Margot and Hunter Renfroe with the Padres, these could be two organizations that Chicago calls first. Considering how San Diego doesn't appear to be competitive for a few years, as deal for Quintana might not make sense, in that holding onto premium, young talented outfielders could help them to accelerate their path atop the division, rather than acquiring one top pitcher. The Dodgers on the other hand, have had rotation questions for the past couple of years, thanks to Brandon McCarthy undergoing Tommy John Surgery, Clayton Kershaw experiencing an extended absence in the 2016 season, Rich Hill dealing with blister issues, and Hyun-Jin Ryu having groin and elbow injuries, the Dodgers could use a durable starter like Quintana, but have balked at the reported asking price from Chicago.
It looks unlikely Quintana is dealt this winter, but with demand as strong as ever at the trade deadlines every year, it may be smarter to have a team bet against itself and overpay for a great player, which would work to Chicago's advantage. Quintana is one of baseballs twenty best starters right now, and deserves a great return for morphing into such a luxury. Only time will tell if Chicago will sell high on it's new staff ace, or if a mystery team will pull the trigger on the star columbian pitcher.
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