Wednesday January 18th - This just goes to show how anemically slow the market has developed for Bautista and other power threats on the open market this winter. Originally looking to lock in a deal in excess of 4 years and $100MM reportedly, Bautista had to settle on the fact that he wasn't going to get the long term deal he had rightfully so looked to demand after putting together 249 homeruns, a .387 OBP, 542 SLG, and 151 OPS+, better than 51% of the league over the span of 2010-2016.
It's a bit surprising in the sense that Bautista had to wait this long to find work from an employer, but it would appear the market has officially set its price and standard for one dimensional power sluggers in a day and age where homerun hitters are becoming more of a common thread. There's no argument that at the age of 36, the right fielder still brings a thundering bat that even in a down year last season, sported a .217 isolated slugging percentage, which is drastically better than the .140 league average.
It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that time is, and was not, on Bautista's side when testing the waters this winter. Seeking a lucrative deal before the 2016 season even began, injuries soured Bautista's season and inevitably blocked his earning power this winter. Many experts had predicted he would have to settle for a one year deal to build back up his case for a long term pact from the right organization, but the clock is ticking, and Bautista is running out of time to turn skeptics into believers.
Edwin Encarnacion, a teammate of Bautista last year and since 2009, equally saw his case stunned and pushed back due to the simple fact that teams are moving their priorities and resource pools towards frontline starting pitching and back-of-the-bullpen lights out aces. Bautista has done nothing short of excel in the top level of the sport ever since his breakout year in 2010, but the hesitancy teams faced appeared to have outweighed their ultimate decision to offer Bautista a remunerative deal.
Age, steady decline, positional limitations, and contract demands all played a part in delaying Bautista from signing on with a team. More teams are moving towards a rotating designated hitting spot in the American League, and with Joey Bats looking to occupy most of his time in the DH hole, with some limited accessibility in right field, it was a very unappealing fit for many organizations. The latest Collective Bargaining Agreement that came to fruition this winter may have also weighed heavy on Bautista, as teams that abuse the salary cap and go over by a wide margin (greater than 10% of upcoming 190MM+ cap in 2017 season) would be faced with draft pick forfeiture, and restrictions on submitting contracts to international amateur free agents, and amateurs in the rule four draft. Spending pools and bonuses awarded to players would ultimately be limited in the market place for organizations that spend over the leagues allotted budget line, and with Bautista's prodigious asking price, teams felt better off not taking the risk.
Ultimately, it's a good move for both Bautista, and the Toronto Blue Jays, who have reclaimed their longtime slugger on a short term contract, which has options attached for the 2018 and 2019 seasons. Bautista will receive more than the qualifying offer extended to him, which this year came in at $17.2MM over a single season, and Bautista bested that number by an additional $800K.
Toronto is now armed with Devon Travis, Russell Martin, Josh Donaldson, and the newly minted Bautista, all of whom will look to replicate last seasons offensive breakouts. Last season, Toronto ranked 9th in runs scored (759), 4th in homeruns (221), sixth in OBP (.330), and second in walks (632) as an entire team, which propelled them as one of the leagues leading offenses. With Bautista back in the mix, Toronto has an even better chance to reproduce those numbers, and help their offensive outbursts turn into victories.
One of the premier sluggers in the sport over the past half-decade, if Bautista is a bright spot in manager John Gibbons lineup this season, and he still shows he's more than capable in right field, it isn't impossible to leave out another try at the free agent market again next winter. Posting monstrous power numbers will only help Bautista appreciate in value, but his ability to play the field and stay healthy will be closely examined underneath a microscope by many throughout much of the season. It's fair to speculate that if things go south, Bautista could always be flipped to a contender at the non-waiver trade deadline at the end of July as a sturdy veteran presence, and lefty-masher.
With one of the top bats finally plucked off the board, it'll be interesting to see how the likes of Mark Trumbo and Chris Carter fare now that the storied Bautista has reclaimed his spot in Toronto's fearsome lineup.
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