Thursday, January 12, 2017

MLB Fantasy Rankings 2017: Catchers

The sweet feeling of joy is starting to warm in the air, as pitchers and catchers are slatted to start reporting towards the middle of February, leaving the baseball community with about four more weeks of anxiously twiddling our thumbs. Position players report shortly after, and teams have full squads by the end of February as all 30 team prepare for their respective spring training schedules, either in the Grapefruit or Cactus League. Both leagues are made of an assorted mix of American and National league teams, breeding a more friendly interleague feel and frenzy, much more apparent than during regular season games. With teams slowly easing pitchers back into routines to adjust arm strength and durability, and position players lock in their pitch recognition and timing at the plate, many in the fantasy baseball business look out for any alarming or startling news during the month of March to adjust their predictions and preferred draftees for the upcoming fantasy season. With baseball only on the upswing from here, it's noteworthy and creeping up to be that time of year where positional rankings and projections can start to be drawn out and mapped. With each position sure to get plenty of attention, things will be jump started by perhaps the most important position on the diamond: catchers.

When looking at positional rankings and projections, defensive prowess and ability are not taken into account due to the fact that most fantasy leagues only account for offensive statistics.

For the most part, both American and National league players are included in most draft pools, unless certain leagues are marked American or National league players only, in which case drafters are only allowed to select from the respective league. As each season is full of offensive outbursts and surprises (see: Gary Sanchez and Sandy Leon), there is just as fair a share of disappointments and unforecasted injuries (see: Kyle Schwarber and Yan Gomes). 

With the 2017 season just on the brink of breaking the horizon, it's time to jump into catcher rankings for the upcoming season. 

1. Buster Posey SF 
2016 Stats: .288/.362/.434, 14 HR, 80 RBI, 82 R, 64 BB
2017 Projections: .299/.370/.454, 19 HR, 94 RBI, 75 R, 68 BB

Posey is the most likely candidate to lead in at-bats and plate appearances of any qualified catcher, meaning that he has the greatest chance to rack up the most overall fantasy points. Primed to sit in the clean up spot, and with Denard Span, Joe Panik, and Brandon Belt hitting just ahead of him, Posey definitely has an above average chance at collecting at least 80 RBI's, As long as he stays healthy and fresh, and especially with manager Bruce Bochy rotating Posey between catcher and first base as he ages, Posey, still only 30 years old, has all the makings of an elite bat at the position. Coming off his lowest single season average (.288), look for him to rebound in the Bay Area and put up his old stats and regain his all-star form. 

2. Jonathan Lucroy TEX
2016 Stats: .292/..355/.500, 24 HR, 81 RBI, 67 R, 47 BB
2017 Projections: .278/.359/.521, 25 HR, 101 RBI, 77 R, 6 SB

Big John Lucroy came over from the Brewers to the Rangers and pretty much set the entire world on fire last year, hitting a career high 24 HR's after never having eclipsed 18 HR's. A defensively sound catcher, but by far better known for his gifted bat, now in a potent Texas lineup, Lucroy should be primed to set career highs in runs scored, slugging percentage, and perhaps even home runs. One of the best hitting catchers in the MLB, Lucroy should come off the board quick for a position that truly lacks quality depth. Look for a repeat of last years numbers, or maybe even a little more, and don't pass up the opportunity to get arguably the best hitting catcher on the market. It would be smart to be bullish on Lucroy after his last season. 

3. Russell Martin TOR
2016 Stats: .231/.335/.398, 20 HR, 74 RBI, 62 R, 64 BB
2017 Projections: .245/.342/.424, 22 HR, 68 RBI, 54 R, 53 BB

Martin has been a solid contributor behind the plate for the majority of his career, having really peaked when playing for the Pirates in 2014, where he hit .290 and had an OBP of .402, while contributing 5.5 WAR. With a much more depleted Blue Jays lineup, having lost Edwin Encarnacion and looking at the potential exit of Jose Bautista, Martin may have a tougher time knocking in runs, and may be pitched to more precisely with opposing pitching staffs no longer needing to focus on Encarnacion and Bautista has focal points. He has a knack for reading pitches and working counts, while only swinging at pitches that within the strike zone. With Kendrys Morales, Josh Donaldson, and Devin Travis leading the Jays lineup, Martin should have a solid year, but at 33 years old, his days of hitting for 20+ home runs may start becoming a thing of the past. 

4. Salvador Perez KC
2016 Stats: .247/.288/.438, 22 HR, 64 RBI, 57 R, 22 BB
2017 Projections: .259/.301/.443, 21 HR, 75 RBI, 49 R, 27 BB

Perez pretty much hit rock bottom last year with the bat, setting personal worsts in average, hits, and most alarmingly of all, strikeouts. He has never really been relied upon to post anything close to average OBP numbers, but having posted sub-.300 OBP's in three consecutive seasons now, look for the Kansas City staff to really work the kinks out for Perez, who surprisingly is still only 26. Salvy should look to continue supplying above-average power numbers in the home run department, but if there is an ascent in the batting average and OBP areas, this could inversely affect his power numbers while he focuses on his on base abilities. Always known for his superb glove and cannon that caught 48.1% of thefts last season, Perez doesn't look to be slowing down with his catching skills. The real question for fantasy owners is will Perez continue the trend of middling average and OBP numbers, or will he surface as a reliable and top-three fantasy option with stable on-base numbers as a premium power threat. 

5. Kyle Schwarber CHC
2016 Stats: DNP (Did Not Play); injured
2017 Projections: .268/.373/.534. 31 HR, 98 RBI, 92 R, 76 BB

This years diamond in the rough, the needle in the haystack that many have forgotten about; most analysts would probably argue that Schwarber deserves to be higher on the list, but considering he his coming back from almost a year-long lay off after knee surgery, things could conceivably be slow to start for the catcher turned outfielder. While manager Joe Maddon has floated the idea of hitting Schwarber at or near the top of a dangerous Cubs lineup, it is yet to be seen whether his words will translate into actual lineup changes. He undeniably has the makings of a super-star, and his built like that of an NFL linebacker, Schwarber possesses all the necessary tools to put up scary numbers against opposing pitchers. Already a polished bat coming out of the University of Indiana, Schwarber accounted for a .487 slugging percentage in his freshman campaign back in 2015, having hit 16 home runs against major league pitching. The fantasy numbers could be scary, and he easily could be atop the list for best catcher by the end of the 2017 season; it's easy to dream on the numbers Schwarber could post, but it'll take more than an encouraging rookie campaign and world series appearance to prove his ability at the major league level.

6. Gary Sanchez NYY
2016 Stats: .299/.376/.657, 20 HR, 42 RBI, 34 R, 24 BB
2017 Projections: .272/.338/.470, 27 HR, 76 RBI, 70 RBI, 58 BB

What appears to be unsustainable success will attempt to be replicated by one of the more promising young players in the game today, and Sanchez will try to prove pundits wrong, and show that his titanium strength is able to reproduce last seasons numbers. His first full taste of major league action, on top of the blunder of having to lead a faltering pitching staff, Sanchez checked off all the boxes in what can be coined as a eye-opening season for the Yankee backstop. While it's hard to believe Sanchez will be able to come close to posting the numbers he did last season as pitchers have more to go off of now with a scouting report, Sanchez should look nothing short of producing anything less than 20 home runs next season, especially considering he'll be playing half of his games in the hitter friendly confines of Yankee stadium. It's hard to tell if there'll be a significant dip in the OBP department if pitchers jam him in, but Sanchez has the 6'2", 230 lb build to wreck opposing pitchers when they know they've made a huge mistake down the middle of the pipe. 

7. Brian McCann HOU
2016 Stats: .242/.335/.413, 20 HR, 58 RBI, 56 R, 54 BB
2017 Projections: .224/.321/.408, 18 HR, 49 RBI, 41 R, 48 BB

I'm not quite as optimistic about McCann as I am others here on the list. He is a proven veteran that knows how to lead a pitching staff, and certainly crush pitches when he needs to, as he's only posted a sub-20 HR campaign once in his career (he hit 18 HR in 2007). While it maybe safe to assume that McCann will post 20 HR's as likely as it'll be that the sun will come up tomorrow morning, he's been declining ever since he signed his 5-year deal with the Yankees at the tail end of 2013, and will be eased into a more comfortable role with a Houston team that is one of the youngest in the league. Forming something reminiscent to a platoon with lumberjack Evan Gattis, McCann may not see as many at-bats as he's been used to, but on the bright side he will certainly be seeing more days at first base and designated hitter than catcher, and that may breed optimism for some fantasy players looking to buy low on a player with low expectations. This is certainly a see-saw option that could go either way, a backup option may be smart to store away on the bench. 

8. Stephen Vogt OAK
2016 Stats: .251/.305/.406, 14 HR, 56 RBI, 54 R, 35 BB
2017 Projections: .259/.320/.421, 16 HR, 54 RBI, 55 R, 45 BB

A late bloomer, Vogt established himself as an all-star catching option the past two seasons, hitting a combined .256 with 32 big flies, 127 RBI's, and 112 runs scored, all good for six percent above league average. Going into his age 32 season, Vogt is on the wrong side of 30, but still presents fantasy owners with a decent chance of outperforming most of the market at the catcher position, especially considering he swings the stick from the left side, historically providing better numbers against a league that has substantially more right-handed pitchers than left-handed. While he does play in the spacious Oakland Colosseum, Vogt represents a rather sturdy option since entering the league full-time back in 2014. He obviously isn't the best catching option, but can go on prolonged stretches that help fantasy owners breathe a sigh of relief for drafting the catcher. Mid-round talent, don't draft him too high, but definitely don't wait to late for the quality catching option. 

9. Yadier Molina STL
2016 Stats: .307/.360/.427, 8 HR, 58 RBI, 56 R, 39 BB
2017 Projections: .289/.347/.397, 7 HR, 55 R, 32 BB

If there was such thing as a league for defensive standouts and points handed out for blocking balls and pitch framing, Yadi would be the first catcher to come off the board. At 34 years old, Molina is towards the tail end of his career, and has taken a beating having caught at least 100 games in 12 straight seasons. Molina has never been a top fantasy option for power, as he's only hit 20 bombs once in his career (his best offensive year, Yadi hit .315 with 22 HR and 76 RBI), Molina can still be called upon to barrel up the ball and work counts to contribute solid fantasy points. Yadi has safely stayed above the .270 line for six seasons now, and going into his thirteenth year,  the expectations appear to be no different. It is fair to assume Molina will be getting more off days now, and considering he plays in the National league, Molina will not have the advantage of being able to stay in the lineup as the designated hitter. He shouldn't anything near double digit home runs, but if he does, just run with it, but a .280 and above average should be expected from Molina.

10. J.T. Realmuto MIA
2016 Stats: .303/.343/.428, 11 HR, 48 RBI, 60 R, 28 BB
2017 Projections: .278/.309/.414, 14 HR, 58 RBI, 67 R, 23 BB

Definitely one of the better breakout stories in the 2016 season, Realmuto surprised many when he started hitting leadoff as a catcher. His OBP was a product of an inflated average, and with the lack of walks in his early career, if Realmuto doesn't work counts and select his pitches, when the going gets tough, so will the OBP. He's still developing his power at 25 years old, but playing in Miami and they're humungous park, one can't expect a big step up in the power department, but some doubles should stretch in home runs. A versatile and well-rounded athlete, Realmuto padded his record with 12 stolen bases last year, proving to be one of the very few catching options that is quite good on the base paths. Realmuto is young, and if he can attack the holes in his game now, and develop into a credible catcher, the sky is the limit for the former third round pick. 

This'll conclude the list of the current top-ten catching options in the game, we'll be hitting on the other positions to come very soon.

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