What Would Jose Quintana Trade Look Like?

With ace Chris Sale now off the board after being shipped to Boston for a package of enticing prospects, the attention has turned to Sale's former teammate and White Sox workhorse Jose Quintana. White Sox management has apparently declared a complete teardown of the current Chicago team, trading away Sale and right-fielder Adam Eaton for a prized collection of prospects, that now place Chicago in the conversation for one of the best farm systems in the MLB. Speculation has arisen over the possibility of building block and top first basemen Jose Abreu being dealt, as well as late inning ace David Robertson, and former Homerun Derby Champion Todd Frazier. There is a wide consensus that if not now, this tandem of players may be dealt at the upcoming summer non-waiver trade deadline, making for an even more intriguing roster construction for Rick Hahn and co. Having finished at no better than 4th place in the American League Central in the past three seasons, and never eclipsing more than 78 wins during that same period, a full teardown for the White Sox appeared inevitable with the central division growing stronger each of the past couple seasons. White Sox fans may quiver and toss in desperation at the fact of Quintana and Abreu being dealt away just to prolong their drought of becoming a meaningful force in the American League, but the return for such players could certainly make the future as bright as ever for the pale hose. It may be a pipe dream for teams to think about acquiring Jose Quintana, but the fact of reality is if Chris Sale can be shipped off in the span of a couple days of negotiation, Jose Quintana can be dealt in just as short a period of time if the return is right. 

It is very true that teams may never have enough pitching, especially in the rotation, and many teams around the league have a clear need for a top-of-the-rotation arm that obviously will cost a pretty penny, but ensure a quality arm is able to provide ample innings. The Angels, Braves, Astros, and Orioles are just a few teams that for the moment lack a true ace at the top of their rotations; some teams simply don't possess an ace, while others having their bulldogs recovering from injuries. Teams that fit the bill to acquire Jose Quintana have the appropriate crop of talent to fabricate an irresistible offer to the White Sox, but the question becomes who exactly is willing to give up the farm for a proven arm? 

The White Sox will be looking for anything close or near to what they received for Sale, and by no means is Jose Quintana a Chris Sale; Quintana is very good, but Sale is elite, and due to the lack of sturdy, seasoned rotation arms that the White Sox have, an overwhelming offer may need to be presented to the White Sox for them to budge on Quintana. It is worth delving into the effectivity of both Sale and Quintana to help represent what a fair return may be for the White Sox to cash in on. Over Quintana's entire 951 major league innings, he has thus far posted a 3.41 era, while putting up an almost identical 3.47 fip, which would suggest Quintana is neither outperforming his results or experiencing bizarre misfortunes when on the mound. He has walked an average of 2.2 batters per nine innings over his career, which is better than league average, and allows 8.9 hits per nine innings. His overall collection of work is roughly 18% better than the league average pitcher, putting him at or near a respectable no. 2 or 3 starting pitcher. 

Chris Sale, on the other hand, has delivered 1110 innings pitched, and has pitched to the tune of an even 3.00 era, with his fip coming in at 3.06; no outliers appear present, like Quintana he has true talent. Sale sits at 2.1 walks per nine innings, and separates himself drastically from Quintana in the hits allowed department, only having surrendered 7.5 hits per nine innings in his young career thus far. Sale is able to dial his fastball up into the high nineties, with a sweeping slider that helps him to not only keep men off base, but to year-in and year-out fight for the strikeout crown. Over his career, Sale has struck out 10.1 batters per nine innings, but interestingly enough, Quintana, even with his highest average fastball being 2.5 miles per hour slower than Sales, is able to register an exactly identical 10.1 K/9 to Sale's. When looking at the bigger picture, both pitchers throw their fastball over  49% of the time, with their curveball/slider dominating at over 23% of the time, and the change-up for Quintana over 9% (Sale's changeup usage is closer to 21%). Having pitched for the same team, it makes sense that under the same pitching coach, both pitchers have identical repertoires, and pitch usage statistics. At the end of the day, Sale has been 35% better than league average, which is far better than Quintana's 18%. Sale's percentage of total starts that are quality starts is at 74%, as opposed to Quintana's 64%. Sale also has a higher swinging strike percentage (19.6%) to Quintana's numbers (14.7%). Both pitchers received close to identical run-support and ballpark factors, so it would seem that overall Chris Sale has outperformed Quintana simply due to skill. That doesn't take away from the fact that Quintana is a very good pitcher, and the White Sox should still receive a very good return if they are to trade him, but maybe not quite a king's ransom. 

A boat of quality prospects would surely get the job done to acquire Quintana, but observing the return Chicago claimed for Sale, which was headlined by baseballs number one prospect, Yoan Moncada, and top thirty prospect, starting pitcher Michael Kopech, a return for Quintana could be along the lines of two-three top one hundred prospects. If not a single top twenty-five prospect, Hahn could look for a broader collection of talent to collect and wait to mature, but with the outfield situation looking murky in the future, possibly a Cody Bellinger from the Los Angeles Dodgers, or a Clint Frazier from the Yankees, two teams that have been mentioned aside the White Sox, could get a talks started between organizations. Both the Dodgers and Padres have a bright, young group of outfielders in their minor league system, featured by Bellinger and Alex Verdugo with the Dodgers, and Manuel Margot and Hunter Renfroe with the Padres, these could be two organizations that Chicago calls first. Considering how San Diego doesn't appear to be competitive for a few years, as deal for Quintana might not make sense, in that holding onto premium, young talented outfielders could help them to accelerate their path atop the division, rather than acquiring one top pitcher. The Dodgers on the other hand, have had rotation questions for the past couple of years, thanks to Brandon McCarthy undergoing Tommy John Surgery, Clayton Kershaw experiencing an extended absence in the 2016 season, Rich Hill dealing with blister issues, and Hyun-Jin Ryu having groin and elbow injuries, the Dodgers could use a durable starter like Quintana, but have balked at the reported asking price from Chicago. 

It looks unlikely Quintana is dealt this winter, but with demand as strong as ever at the trade deadlines every year, it may be smarter to have a team bet against itself and overpay for a great player, which would work to Chicago's advantage. Quintana is one of baseballs twenty best starters right now, and deserves a great return for morphing into such a luxury. Only time will tell if Chicago will sell high on it's new staff ace, or if a mystery team will pull the trigger on the star columbian pitcher.