Boston Red Sox:
After posting an impressive 93-69 record, and going from seller-dweller to American League East Division Champions, the Boston Red Sox finally fabricated an impactful campaign. With the American League East being coined by many experts as the hardest division in baseball going into the year, the Red Sox had stiff competition from the reigning AL East champion Toronto Blue Jays, as well as the power-house Baltimore Orioles and resurgent New York Yankees. Dave Dombrowski was hired and inserted as President of Baseball Operations last August after serving as General Manager of the Detroit Tigers from 2002-2015. Having built a creative roster and collecting an impressive amount of young, high-caliber talent as GM of the Tigers, Dombrowski was brought aboard the Boston Red Sox to take the place of inferior GM Ben Cherington, who swiftly resigned his role and joined Columbia University as an advisor. Having been the Sox top shot-caller for the past year, we will look into what moves have, and have not panned out for the old-school Dombrowski. But before delving into that, here is a look at a projection of next years 25-man roster come the end of spring training for the Boston Red Sox.
Arbitration Eligible:
Fernando Abad - likely non-tendered contract
Robbie Ross Jr.
Joe Kelly
Drew Pomeranz - acquired non-waiver trade deadline for top prospect Anderson Espinoza
Josh Rutledge - likely non-tendered contract
Brock Holt
Xander Bogaerts
Bryan Holaday - likely non-tendered contract
Brandon Workman
Jackie Bradley Jr.
Sandy Leon
Free Agents:
David Ortiz - retiring
Koji Uehara
Junichi Tazawa
Aaron Hill - option to be declined
Brad Ziegler
Ryan Hanigan - option to be declined
Projected 25-Man Roster 2017:
Catcher: Sandy Leon, Blake Swihart, Christian Vazquez
Infield: Hanley Ramirez, Dustin Pedroia, Travis Shaw, Pablo Sandoval, Xander Bogaerts, Brock Holt
Outfield: Andrew Benintendi, Chris Young, Jackie Bradley Jr., Mookie Betts
Starting Pitcher: Rick Porcello, David Price, Drew Pomeranz, Eduardo Rodriguez, Steven Wright
Bullpen: Clay Buchholz, Carson Smith, Craig Kimbrel, Robbie Ross Jr., Joe Kelly, Matt Barnes, Heath Hembree
Boston's Big Boppers:
Overall, coming into 2017, the Red Sox have an exceptional crop of impressive young talent spread all across the diamond. The catching situation in 2016 was a sparse void to begin with, but the sudden awakening of Sandy Leon provided the Sox with a bit of an offensive cushion at the position. Leon batted .310 across a 252 at-bat sample size, which is not small feat, and managed a 41.2% Caught Stealing percentage, roughly 12% better than league average. Having never hit better than .184 in an extended amount of at-bats, it is fair to raise the question as to whether Leon will be able to keep up anything close to the production he provided in 2017 with the bat. Defensively, Leon has one of the most sound and gifted gloves in the game, but with a team that demands such a level of high output from each position, it will be interesting to see if Leon can even manage a triple-slash line of .260/.320/.400 (average/on-base/slugging) for the Sox. Former heralded top-prospect Blake Swihart has one more option-year remaining, which could be used for further advancement on his defense, but there is no doubt amongst Sox staff that Swihart has the bat to stick at the position. An athletic catcher that played some infield in high school, Swihart was transitioned to the outfield in 2016 to increase his versatility, but his true value lies behind the plate where there are questions over if he can stick there in the long-term.
Hanley Ramirez will look to be holding down the fort at first-base again this year after posting a 30-homer, 111-RBI campaign last year. Ramirez made significant strides adjusting to first-base after playing an anemic left-field in 2015, but what was more impressive was his ability to stay on the field and produce at the plate. Initially upon signing with the Red Sox during the 2014-2015 free agent period, Ramirez was asked to gain 20-25 lbs of muscle to add some more power to his game. He would ultimately have an injury-shortened campaign after injuring his shoulder that would severely sap his power, but when healthy and on the field that year, Ramirez was nothing short of the aforementioned slugger the Sox were hoping for. Hanley will look to build upon his second career 30-homer campaign and lead the Sox to a second-consecutive playoff appearance in 2017.
DP, the muddy-chicken, laser-show, whatever you call him, the cornerstone piece of the Boston Red Sox, and the closest thing to a team captain since Jason Varitek; Dustin Pedroia will be returning from a career-year in 2016. Pedroia, undeniably may have had his finest season since 2011, when he posted a jaw-dropping 7.8 Wins-Above-Replacement according to ESPN, which in todays standards would translate to roughly about $62 MM worth of production in a single season. Having hit .318, to go along with 201 hits and 105 runs scored, Pedroia was the offensive catalyst for the Red Sox after Mookie Betts transitioned from the one-hole to the clean-up hitter later in the year. His bat, combined with his gold glove defense year-in and year-out has provided the Red Sox with an insurmountable amount of production since being selected in the Amateur Draft from Arizona State University. The spirit of the club house, and the leader of the Boston Red Sox, Pedroia will be entering his age-33 season looking to continue his steady production at the plate and help Boston's young guns mature.
Third-base heading into 2016 was a bit of a question mark for the Red Sox; Travis Shaw, Pablo Sandoval, and Brock Holt have all occupied the position at one point or another in the past two years. A position of uncertainty would be putting it lightly, as the Red Sox have routinely posted below-league average production at the hot corner, but 2017 may bring better days. With Pablo Sandoval set to return from a torn labrum in his non-throwing shoulder, the Sox will anxiously be awaiting the return of Sandoval and what exactly he can bring to the table after inking a 5-year, $95 MM contact at the end of 2014. Repeatedly dealing with weight issues has been a consistent problem for Sandoval, but reports are the Sandoval has shed more than 20-lbs this summer in an attempt to reclaim the start third-base job in Boston. After being a bust in his first season with Boston in 2015 when he produced a .242/.292/.366 line, Sandoval will be looking to match career averages in the range of .260-.270, 12-18 homeruns, and 70-80 RBI's, which will gladly be welcomed with the departure of David Ortiz creating a massive void in the center of Boston's lineup. Travis Shaw hit .242 with 16 HR's and 34 doubles in 145 games this season for the Red Sox, as he seems to be Sandovals biggest obstacle in reclaiming the third-base job. Spring training will be definitely be the time to watch the battle between the two pan-out, and especially to see if Sandoval can quickly knock the rust off after missing an entire season.
Third-base coach and infield instructor Brian Butterfield's defensive project regressed a bit this year at the short-stop position, as Xander Boagerts slipped both on the offensive and defensive side of the ball. Having hit .320 in 2015, many were expecting Boagerts to step up his game to the next level, particularly in the power department will maintaining somewhat near or above a .300 average. Both of those things for the most part proved true, as Bogey hit .294 with a career high 21 homeruns. The only problem is that on paper Boagerts numbers look good, but when translated against the rest of the league, he was only 8 percent better than league average, which at any rate is not bad at all, but with the ceiling that Boagerts has, many are expecting far better things from the Aruba native. Looking ahead at 2017, Bogaerts will look to build on his improvements across his game, hopefully forming into a bigger bat that the Sox envision he will become.
Left-field in the coming season will most likely be occupied by incumbent Andrew Benintendi, who took the job from a platoon of Chris Young/Blake Swihart after each suffered separate injuries. Having been drafted out of the University of Arkansas in the 2015 Amateur Draft, Benintendi sprinted through the Sox minor league system, routinely posting high OBP numbers and an excellent understanding and command of the strike-zone. Often associated as a "high-floor" kind of guy, Benintendi still has room to grow as a player. Only 22 years of age, and listed as 5-10, 180 lbs, he still has a bit of room to grow physically, but it is impressive to see a player of his stature, only a year out of college posting a .295 batting average, to go along with a .359 OBP. His understanding of the strike-zone gives him the knack to pick his pitches and barrel up balls on the fat part of the bat, maintaining a strong-contact and line drive rate. It wouldn't be a reach to expect something along the lines of a .280/.360/.430 line, to pair with 10-15 homeruns if he doesn't suffer a sophomore slump at the end of a fearsome Sox lineup. Benintendi will be one of the bigger questions going into the 2017 campaign and what to expect of a player just getting used to major league pitching, especially after skipping Triple-A Pawtucket and heading right to the majors.
There will be no need to worry who will be roaming the center-field premises of Fenway Park in 2017, as Scott Boras client Jackie Bradley Jr. will be looking to build off of fantastic campaign, which saw JBJ manufacture a 29-game hitting streak. Jackie finished 2016 with a .267 average, 26 homeruns, and 87 RBI's, to go along with gold glove defense. Bradley's defense is undoubtedly the strength of his game, thanks to one of the best arms in the game that regularly registers throws from the outfield to home plate over 100-mph. JBJ's cannon, paired with his ability to control the strike-zone have made Bradley into an important part of Boston's future plans. Almost a forgotten element after posting a .198 average in his first full season in 2014, Bradley has gone from bottom-of-the-lineup bat to middle-of-the-order run producer.
As most Sox fans know, right-field will be handled by perhaps Boston's best player, Mookie Betts for the next set of years to come. Another Scott Boras client, Betts completely tore the cover off the baseball this season, posting MVP-type numbers by seasons end. Betts went on to hit .318 with 31 homeruns and 118 RBI's, second in HR's and RBI's only to future HOF'er David Ortiz. Mookie was and will continue to be the dominant force opposing pitchers fear to face in Boston's powerful lineup. Bett's missed the 30-30 club by four stolen bases this year, so there is potential in the future to look forward ultimately to a 30-30 campaign, if he can continue to hit a homerun every 20 or so plate appearances. This is just scratching the surface for what the former second-basemen could achieve in his future; there may be an MVP award or two on his mantle soon enough.
Probably the biggest hit to Boston's 2017 roster is David Ortiz's retirement from baseball, which leaves both players and fans saddened to see his production cease. Posting probably the best season in a players farewell tour ever, especially at the age of 40, Ortiz killed opposing pitching to the tune of a .315/.401/.620 line, which rated at the top in about all offensive league categories. Having smashed 38 homeruns this season, Ortiz ends his career 17th all time with 541 big-flys, and will go down as a Boston legend ever since signing out free-agency after not having his option picked up by the Minnesota Twins. Boston will look internally and externally to fill this hole, with many people speculating Toronto Blue Jays impending free agent DH Edwin Encarnacion could come aboard and terrorize opposing pitching for Boston in 2017. Encarncion is regularly one of the leagues very best bats, but doesn't come without his cons, as he has had a rising strike-out over the past couple of years, to go along with his defensive limitations. Designated hitter will definitely be an area of concern come 2017 for the Red Sox if Encarnacion is not in Sox uniform come opening day 2017.
Starting Rotation/Bull-Pen Concerns:
David Price, one of the biggest disappoints since signing his 7-year, $217 MM contract was not up-to-par with his career averages. Having posted a 3.33 ERA in 2013, 3.26 in 2014, and 2.45 in 2015, Price was expected to be the bull-dog of a shaky Red Sox staff, and post dominant numbers in Price's biggest setting yet. The question for Price over his career is whether he can rise to the occasion in big situations, ideally the playoffs, where after the 2016 ALDS against the Indians, Price has now totaled 66.2 postseason innings of 5.54 ERA ball, to go along with an 2-8 record. He went on to record a 17-9 regular season record, with an unspectacular 3.99 ERA. Luckily for Boston, former Tigers and Dombrowski property, Rick Porcello, acquired in the Yoenis Cespedes trade, had his best year yet, spinning out a league-leading 22-4 record, with a 3.15 ERA in a career-high 223 innings pitched. Porcello was able to dominant hitters with his impeccable command, having walked only 32 batters all year long, along with the ability to jam hitters on the inner part of the plate. Porcello is not part of the rising system of flame-throwers throughout baseball, having managed his fastball around 88-92 mph regularly, to go along with his signature pitch, a sinking fastball that he throws 38% of the time. Much of his success can be credited to Red Sox pitching coach Carl Willis, who helped Porcello with his arsenal, refining pitches, pitch selection, and missing down-and-away rather than up. Paired with front-of-the-rotation stalwarts Price and Porcello, Boston also has Drew Pomeranz, acquired in the non-waiver deadline for top farmhand prospect Anderson Espinoza, Eduardo Rodriguez, and knuckle-ball specialist and 2016 all-star Steven Wright. Pomeranz was outstanding for much of the season when pitching in the confines of Petco Park for the San Diego Padres up until the point of being traded to Boston, where news broke that Pomeranz had been dealing with elbow-related alignments. Much of his dreadful performances in Boston were credited to his ailing elbow, but coming into 2017, Pomeranz figures to be a key member of the Sox starting rotation. Eduardo Rodriguez, whom the Sox acquired in the Andrew Miller trade with the Baltimore Orioles, has been average to just-above average since being acquired, and looks to build off of his relative success next year when factoring in as the potential number 4 starter. Lastly, Steven Wright, who for the first half of the year was consistently being talked up as the potential starter of the American League all-star team, pitched better than anyone on the Red Sox staff could've imagined. Special assistant to Dombrowski and former Sox hurler Tim Wakefield worked with Wright to alter his grip of his knuckleball, which helped Wright go from spot-starter/long-reliever to steadfast starter in Boston's rotation.
The Boston bullpen, which had been greatly criticized amongst many, was rather dominant for most of the season, thanks to late inning ace Craig Kimbrel and co. Kimbrel had a perfectly fine year, but a down year in accordance to his regular standards; a 3.40 ERA, 31 saves and a 14.09 K/9. The ERA is a little high for a shutdown closer like Kimbrel, but much of that can a result of an inflated hard contact rate, as well as adjusting to playing in the AL East. Matt Barnes and Joe Kelly are other hard-throwing late-inning options manager John Farrell has at his disposal, as both but up mediocre results upon getting acquainted to regular bullpen duties. Robbie Ross Jr. was decent as well this year, more often than not providing Farrell with a LOOGY option, to go along with the horrendous acquisition of Fernando Abad. Carson Smith underwent Tommy John Surgery early on in the season, and will be one of Boston's late inning weapons next season. The bullpen is rounded out with Boston's longest tenured pitcher Clay Buchholz, and surprise reliever Heath Hembree, both of whom look to play important roles in keeping runs off the board next year.
Dombrowski's 2016 Moves:
- Fernando Abad: acquired for flame-thrower Pat Light, this trade looked bad from the start, as Abad has either been good or bad throughout the majority of his career. Having pitched for the Twins previously, it was only a matter of time before Abad's luck ran out, especially considering he's a lefty-lefty matchup type only. Consistently hanging beach balls down the center of the strike-zone, Abad proved his inability to provide results in big situations.
- Aaron Hill: the Brewers third-basemen hit .283 and registered a 1.6 WAR before being traded to Boston for minor league SP Aaron Wilkerson and 2B prospect Wendell Rijo, both of whom didn't look to factor into the longterm plans for Boston. Hill would go on to hit .218 for Boston in a 47-game sample size; his option will most likely not be picked up.
- Brad Ziegler: Definitely the best move Dombrowski would make. Ziegler, an artsy submarine-pitcher would prove difficult for opponents in the American League to size up against, pitching to a 1.25 ERA in 29.2 innings pitched for the Red Sox. Ziegler was certainly a useful part of Boston's bullpen, even filling in for closer Kimbrel when injured. He will most likely not be resigned upon entering free agency.
- Drew Pomeranz: A mixed bag at this point to say the least. Pomeranz was great in San Diego, and not so much in Boston. It was later learned that San Diego GM A.J. Preller withheld medical records from Boston during the July trade, prompting MLB commissioner Rob Manfred to offer the Red Sox a rescind for the trade, which Dombrowski mind-bogglingly rejected. MLB top prospect and former farmhand Anderson Espinoza was sacrificed in this deal for Pomeranz, who is a serviceable number 3 starter at this point in time. Espinoza has the ceiling of former Red Sox Cy Young winner Pedro Martinez, but only time will tell if he can reach that potential in San Diego's farm system.
Red Sox Pipeline Top Prospects:
Prospect ratings on a 20-80 scale, 50 being average.
3B/SS Yoan Moncada: arguably the top prospect at this point in all of baseball, Moncada is a true 5-tool player who's very raw at this point in time. Having been signed as an international free agent for $63 MM, Boston has high hopes that Moncada turns into the monster many think he will. Moncada has gotten comparisons to Seattles Robinson Cano, which really isn't all that bad.
Potential - Hit tool: 60 Power tool: 60 Speed: 70 Arm: 50 Defense: 50
3B Rafael Devers: international amateur free agent signed out of Dominican Republic has been compared to Adrian Beltre. Larger lower half of body generates outstanding bat speed, power ability is main tool that should develop really well at major league level. Future third-basemen, but if he can't handle position, his bat will certainly translate to first-base.
Potential - Hit tool: 50 Power: 60 Speed: 35 Arm: 55 Defense: 50
SP Jason Groome: lessened the pain when Espinoza was traded that Sox were able to sign Groome out of high school away from playing in college. Polished pitcher with front line potential, especially as a left-handed starting option. Fastball hits 94, has good movement and depth on curveball, and stands at 6-6; still has room for growth as pitcher.
Potential - Stuff: 65 Movement: 60 Command: 55 Stamina: 60
SP Michael Kopech: two words - big arm. This guy was clocked at hitting Aroldis Chapman speed middle of the year, roughly around 105 mph, while starting. Needs to control pitches and improve arsenal, but command is big key to success. Needs to learn to pitch, not throw. Big potential.
Potential - Stuff: 65 Movement: 55 Command: 50 Stamina: 50
No comments:
Post a Comment