On the heels of a report that the Detroit Tigers are open to dealing any of their players, other rumors are surfacing the Detroit GM Al Avila attempted to trade his newly signed rightfielder, Justin Upton during the season. Upton, 29, a former first overall selection back in the 2005 amateur draft has develop into one of the games most consistent power threats. Before signing a 6-year, $132.75 MM contract with Detroit last offseason, Upton spent most of his career terrorizing pitchers in a D'Back's uniform, setting career high's in hits (171), doubles (39), and homeruns (31) during the 2011 season. Many expected Upton to become the next perennial powerhouse corner outfielder after posting a 141 OPS+ in his age 23 season, but that marked what has turned into a steady decline in his numbers since. This is not to say Upton isn't a premier outfield option, has he is routinely year-in and year-out one of the better options to finish the season with .270, 25+ homeruns, and 80+ RBI numbers, which in todays age where bullpens are destroying offense seems to be pretty good production.
With Detroit apparently looking to get out from underneath Upton's contract, its fair to wonder whether the Tigers are now prioritizing the possibility of trying to offer fellow outfielder J.D. Martinez an equal contract extension. Acquired as a free agent after being released by the Houston Astro's, Martinez has been nothing short of spectacular while on the field for the Tigers. Having posted a combined .251/.300/.387 line from 2011-2013 with 24 homeruns and 126 RBI's over a 252 game sample size, Martinez wasn't cutting it in Houston, where he still possessed enormous potential. Interestingly enough, once coming over to the Tigers, Martinez's combined triple-slash line improved to .299/.357/.540 over almost double the amount of games he played in an Astro's uniform. Martinez has averaged 34 homeruns, 100 RBI's, and a 145 OPS+, good for 45% better than league average. J.D. has turned himself into a household name, and middle-of-the-order presence the Tiger's certainly wouldn't let walk without at lasting entertaining contract extension conversations with.
When assessing the performance of Upton, 2013-2014 represented seasons when Upton's hot zones at the plate were right down the pipe, and on the inside lower corner, as he was maintaining an average above .400, and he was simply raking pitching in those areas. Come 2016, Upton has no longer maintained an average above .400 right down the strike zone, has he has fallen just above the .300 threshold, while going cold on the inside of the plate. Upton may be seeing more fastballs inside, which he is unable to shorten his swing up for, resulting in a lower BABIP overall, which this season hovered right around .300. When considering the league average Batting Average on Balls In Play is roughly .297, and Upton has posted marks of .332,.360,.354 at his peak, one may wonder whether Upton has been helped out by a consistent stream of luck throughout his career. As far as the power department, Upton maintained a very strong 18.4 HR/AB, which is actually lower than his career average of 22.2 AB/HR, to go along with an above-average ISO of .219, considering .140 is average, Upton has continued to produce steady power.
Financially, as GM Al Avila and the rest of the Tigers front office may be realizing, Justin Upton's $132.75 MM may have been better spent on a budding star like J.D. Martinez, who has proved over the past three years to be one of the sole dominant bats in all of Major League Baseball. That isn't to say Upton is not a star, because both players are currently 29-years old, but having played in the majors as early as 19-years old, Upton may need some time off here-and-there to limit the rigors a consistent 162-game season has had on the body of a longtime offensive catalyst. With Michael Fulmer going into his second season, he will not be arbitration eligible until after the 2018 season, and franchise stars Miguel Cabrera and Justin Verlander are locked up for years to come as well. If Steven Moya develops into the huge power threat the Tigers believe he can be, there maybe no point in keeping one of Justin Upton or J.D. Martinez due to financial limitations, but at a point where Upton's stock is so low, now would definitely not be the time to sell for GM Al Avila. There is no doubt Detroits lineup boasts a few substantial bats, but with the upcoming free agency of J.D. Martinez and Miguel Cabrera's continued dominance every year, Justin Upton may have become the most expendable member of the Tiger's roster.
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