Thursday, October 27, 2016

Franchise Cornerstones for Start Up Franchises: Position Players

          Hypothetical question: If every player in baseball was suddenly unbounded contract-wise from their team, and able to be drafted by you, with your first overall pick, who would you chose? Teams are often tasked with making a difficult decision in the Rule 4 draft, formally known as the Amateur Draft, where top recruited high school and college talent are selected in a 40-round process in a serpentine draft by all 30 Major League Baseball teams. But today you're the GM, and before jumping instinctually to you're favorite player like Derek Jeter, who doesn't even play anymore, or 43-year old ground-ball specialist Bartolo Colon, take into consideration this list of top-tier position players.

1. Mike Trout - CF, LAA (25 years old)
2016 Regular Season Stats: .315/.441/.550, 29 HR's, 100 RBI, 116 BB, 174 OPS+, 9.9 oWAR
Career Stats: 811 games, .306/.405/.557, 168 HR, 497 RBI, 143 SB, .360 BABIP, 9.0 RC/G

          Probably the most sound performer in baseball, with the most talent, the highest ceiling, and overall on a bargain contract. Recently signed a 6-year $144.5MM contract extension with the Los Angeles Angels (runs 2015-2020), paid $24.1MM annually, and even at that rate, is on one of the best contracts in recent history (Chris Sale is worth mentioning as a valuable asset on an affordable contract as well). You may look at a $144.5MM figure and ask how exactly he can be such a steal, but to look at it from an analytical view, players are often measured according to their performances year-in and year-out, using something called WAR, Wins Above Replacement, which is monetarily what the players performance was worth during the current year. In 2016, Mike Trout was worth 10.6 WAR, and a Win Above Replacement is currently, accounting for inflation, roughly worth $8MM. To compute Trouts value on the year, he was valued at $84.8MM, so when his performance outweighs his cost by $60.7MM, which the Angels could be paying had they not worked out a deal earlier, its safe to say this deal is the ultimatum of bargains. He is a legitimate five tool player, routinely hitting for average, power, has speed on the base paths, plays real good centerfield defense and has a decent arm. In his career, he has averaged a 9.0 runs created per game played, which means if the lineup were filled with him nine times, and over the span of a 27-out game, the lineup would score nine runs; that's insane. He walks, he hits, he steals bases, and he plays premier defense, what more could you ask for from a 3-time runner up MVP who already has one MVP on his mantle with four silver slugger awards, and still one to come for the 2016 season. 

2. Kris Bryant - 3B, CHC (24 years old)
2016 Regular Season Stats: .292/.385/.554, 39 HR's, 102 RBI, 75 BB, ISO .262, 21 Rrep
Career Stats: 306 games, .284/.377/.522, 65 HR's, 201 RBI, 21 SB, .738 OWn%

          One of the single most intimidating power-threats in the sport, alongside Nelson Cruz and Giancarlo Stanton. Bryant is a feared hitter no matter what lineup, or for that matter, what part of the lineup he is anchoring. For a guy that stands 6'5", he can really haul it around the bases, as well as playing respectable defense over at the hot corner. His calling card is definitely his ability with the bat in his hands, but that's not all he impresses with, the guy can play third, short, all outfield position, as well as scooping picks over at first-base when Maddon calls on him. Over his past two season, he is averaging a well-above average 34 homer's per season, to go along with 142 OPS+, which translates to his infield results being 42% better than the league average player. Were not talking about some average joe on your favorite baseball team that swings the stick well enough to warrant a spot in the lineup, but rather a guy that could anchor any lineup he's thrust into by making everyone around him better. An interesting stat to take a look into, his Offensive Winning Percentage, where if he were put into a lineup nine times over the course of a 27-out game, his team would win 73.8% of those games, an astonishing number that over a 162-game season would translate to 119 wins, or the Seattle Mariners total amount of wins in the 2001 season. Only 24 years old, it's fair to ask just what exactly Bryant could be capable once he reaches his prime age 28-32 seasons, and especially if he's still in a Cub's uniform come that point. The potential 2016 NL MVP candidate will only get better in time, and he's already putting up numbers that could one day land him in Cooperstown. 

3. Mookie Betts - RF BOS (24 years old)
2016 Regular Season Stats:.318/.363/.534, 31 HR's, 113 RBI's, 26 SB, 359 TB, 30 Rbat
Career Stats: 355 games, .304/.355/.500, 54 HR's, 208 RBI, 54 SB, 168 RAR

          Before last year, probably a player not many analysts would pick to be on their "must have" list of top players. Betts has really transformed into the unthinkable for the Red Sox, as coming up through the minor he was mostly a singles-type, low-power ceiling prospect that played the keystone position, before moving to the outfield because of Dustin Pedroia's presence at second base. In his first cup of coffee, Betts took the league by fire, hitting .291 in a 52-game initial sample size, good for 26% better than the league average player, and quite a feat for a 21 year-old in the American League East. Mookie stands at 5'9", 180 lbs, and many question how he could even remotely come close to, let alone actually hitting 31 homeruns, but the guy has some of the quickest hands in the sport. He feasts on inside pitching, where pitchers try to sneak fastballs by him, but this has proven to be his hot zone thus far in his career, as pitchers are starting to work him more on the outside of the part, which could explain his steep decline in homerun's towards the end of the 2016 season. Like Trout and Bryant, Betts will only get better with more time and experience under his belt, but he's already posted 168 Runs Above Replacement level over the course of 3 seasons, proving to many he's no minor league fluke. Mookie is able to combine the speed and power facets of his game, making him one day a safe bet to reach the 30-30 plateau (30 homerun's, 30 stolen bases) if he is able to keep up this new-found power source. He was also 30 runs better than the league average player with the bat this year, something Boston will surely be banking on for years to come, especially in the wake of David Ortiz's departure from the sport. 

4. Nolan Arenado - 3B COL (25 years old)
2016 Regular Season Stats: .294/.362/.570, 41 HR's, 133 RBI's, 68 BB, 128 OPS+, .275 ISO
Career Stats: 561 games, .285/.331/.520, 111 HR's, 376 RBI's, 8 SB, .291 BABIP

          Some may be worried about Arenado's production outside of Coors Field, which isn't nearly as good as it is when's he's on his home turf, especially considering the fact that he has a career Batting Average on Balls In Play below the league average of .300. There is no doubting his power, that is real, and the one part of his game most of his worth is derived from. Coming up through the minors, Arenado was most heralded for his prodigious glove work, which drew the raves of many scouts, forecasting a bevy of gold glove awards one day for Nolan, which early on in his career has indeed been the case. But, what was unprecedented, was the development of Arenado's past non-existent power, which ballooned from 18 homerun's in 2014, to 42 homerun's in 2015. He pairs his bat with his cannon over at third, which on average while flashing the leather, has saved 21 runs per season thus far. His presence both at the plate, and on the field, is most certainly felt, and such an imposing figure will one day command a hefty contract, as Arenado will be eligible for free-agency following the 2020 season. He, along with Bryant, is one of the most prolific homerun threats in the sport, and can put a team on his back for weeks at a time. Like any player, he has his out and cold moments, but Arenado has really opened eyes up in Colorado ever since they selected him in the second round of the 2009 amateur draft. This year, Arenado's splits at home versus the road were extremely apparent, as he slugged .646 in the confines of Coors Field, but still put up an above-average .492 on the road, which is still significantly less than at home. 214 of Arenado's 618 at-bats came in either a 1-2 count, or a 2-2 count, and to no surprise Arenado's average was 66 points better in a 2-2 count than a 1-2 count, where he bated .216 on the year. Arenado is definitely a force not to be reckoned with on the pitching side, and it will be interesting to see what Nolan accomplishes by the time his peak years are on the horizon. 

          This list is a collection of four premier franchise talents, and many other players could be argued more valuable, but this list represents a solid blend of standouts offensive, defensive and base running threats in the sport. Next on the ballot will be four franchise cornerstone pitchers in next times edition, looking at pitchers across the sport who combine talent and contract-details that have helped them become the face of the MLB. 

Baseball Terminology: 
* On-Base Percentage Plus - measures player performance with league and park-factors involved, 100 OPS+ is league average
* Offensive Wins Above Replacement - a players contribution offensively to his team
* Batting Average on Balls In Play - how many balls hit in play go for hits
* Runs Created per Game - amount of runs a player individually contributes on average to team
* Isolated Power - amount of hits that go for extra bases
* Runs from Replacement Level (Rrep) - number of runs better a player is than league average 
* Offensive Winning Percentage - percentage of games a team would win if this player hit every single time through the order
* Total Bases - total number of bases covered according to all 1B's, 2B's, 3B's, and HR's
* Runs Batting (Rbat) - Number of runs better or worse than average hitter
* Runs Above Replacement Level (RAR) - number of runs better than replacement level player

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