Ah Yes, another year of great football, and another year of amazing playoffs.
Or so Roger Goodell would like us to think, with NFL ratings down amidst Coli Kaepernick kneeling, and perhaps a very boring sequence of playoff games. To be real, there were only two close games, Packers v Cowboys and Steelers v Chiefs. As for Chiefs game it was more of a painfully slow game where field goals won the day, and a holding call that made it all the more disappointing. Nevertheless we kept watching and kept seeing blowouts, even in the championship games, which should never happen!
So now we have our contenders to the Superbowl, Patriots and Tom Brady looking for a fifth Superbowl and Matt Ryan and Co. looking for a first. However, I'll explain why the odds are against them.
First, let us look at a bad omen for Matt Ryan. In the last 20 years, all the times an NFL MVP made it to the big game, they lost, all seven of em. Including Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Cam Newton, Kurt Warner....
The NFL MVP if anything is a very bad omen for the Falcons. I know it's not concrete fact, but more of a superstition but looking at the history it stacks up to evidence.
Moreover, We have for the 6th time in Superbowl history of a #1 scoring offense versus a #1 scoring defense, in the Falcons and Patriots respectively. The records are as follows, the number one scoring defense has only won once in 6 games, meaning the #1 defense won 5 out of 1 times. If I were a gambling man I would bet on the defense here. This fact is made even more interesting by the fact Superbowl 48 and 50 were decided by defenses, not offenses.
As for the game itself I would be surprised if it was a blowout, although it has happened before not more than three years ago.
Here is where this game becomes interesting, the Patriots have the number two best scoring offense, not surprising with Lagarette Blount and Tom Brady tearing up the field. Edelman and Hogan dominate any secondary with speed and agility. Gronk is out but Bennett is the next best thing, and they've done great still.
I think the game will be a shootout between two great quarterbacks, but I don't see the Falcons defense coming in clutch, being so new and inexperienced. The Falcons secondary is one half rookies and one half second year pros, with a few veterans in the linebacker core and defensive line. Considering Brady feasted on the Texans and Steelers defense this will be be easier albeit slightly.
The difference maker in this game is of course defense, the Patriots have the dominant defense. We should expect Butler and McCourty to make plays in the deep field, and Hightower and Ninkovich sacking Ryan aplenty. Something Seattle and Greenbay failed to do was pressure Ryan, and they paid the price. I expect the Patriots will just get more stops in on the Falcons, which will mean more possession for Patriots and more points.
Finally, Brady is 2-0 versus bird-themed teams, and 4-0 against the Falcons. He is also 2-0 against Matt Ryan, which tells me the Pats have the Falcons figured out.
I'm not saying the Patriots are guaranteed to win, I am just saying if the history and stats are anything to go by, the Patriots will get number 5. Of course football is a momentum sport and things can change quickly.
Sunday, February 5, 2017
Super Bowl Sunday Standoff
It's that time of year again, when all eyes are glued to the 1080p HD flatscreen TV people of all kind have instilled in their homes. Whether it be at the local tavern, the confines of your moms basement, or the lively atmosphere of NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas, we are all football fans today. Historic viewership ratings rain in on this annual fiasco, and glorified and bold new commercial ads are launched during the Super Bowl, with 30 second ads being aired for a brisk five million dollars, with each second registering in at $166,666. But, none of us are here to talk about the commercials, today is a day to rejoice and pick a side, and hope the your bet turns out to be the one on top.
The New England Patriots (14-2) are seeking their franchises fifth Super Bowl victory, and their first since 2015, when they swiftly defeated the Seattle Seahawks in the final seconds, edging out Russell Wilson, Marshawn Lynch and the Legion of Boom 28-24. Tom Brady himself is looking to make up for his two Super Bowl losses to the New York Giants by burying Matt Ryan and the Falcons this evening, in what will feature the NFL's two highest scoring offenses. Since returning from his Deflate Gate four game suspension, Brady's offense has averaged over 30 points per game, while inflating LeGarrette Blount's 18 rushing TD's and Julian Edelman's 1,106 receiving yards this season. The Patriots offense has been nothing short of excellent, spearheaded by Brady himself, throwing 28 TD's to only two interceptions, completing 67.4% of his passes, which is all good for an elite 82.8 QBR. New England scored (441) and averaged per game (27.6) the third most points in the league this season, only trailing New Orleans and Atlanta. New England ranked seventh overall in rush yards per game with 117.0, but were outdone by Atlanta, who ranked fifth overall for a mere three and a half more yards (120.5) per game.
On the flip side of the things, New England has drastically distanced itself from Atlanta in terms of defensive artistry, ranking eighth in the league total yards given up all season, while Atlanta sits at twenty-fifth. New England was the best in the league in limiting opposing offenses from not only reaching the red zone, but crossing the goal line; the Patriots halted opponents to 15.6 points scored per game, which was two points better than the second best team in the league, the New York Giants. Atlanta once again sits at the bottom of the pile, ranking twenty-seventh and allowing 25.4 points per game this season.
The Atlanta Falcons (11-5) offensively sit as the most heralded and complete offense in football this season. Yes, Tom Brady is craft and quite good, but many would argue that 2017 NFL MVP Matt Ryan unseated Brady for best performing quarterback this season. Ryan, 31, and a former Boston College product, passed for 4,944 yards, 38 TD's to seven interceptions, completed 69.9% of his attempts, and edged Brady out for a better QBR of 83.1. Ryan was helped by top-three league wideout Julio Jones, who is dealing with torn tendons in his foot in the playoffs, thus somehow put up 180 receiving yards and two touchdowns last game against the Packers. Jones caught 83 balls for 1,409 yards and 6 TD's, marking himself as one of the elite players in the NFL. The Atlanta offense remained balanced with Devonta Freeman leading the charge at running back, and breaking tackles and ankles this year for 1,079 rushing yards to go along with 11 rushing TD's. This offense ranked first in points for (33.8), third in passing yards per game (295.3) and fifth in rushing yards per game, good enough to be championed the best offense in the league this season.
Head Coach Bill Belichick will have his hands full today with Atlanta's offense, as Malcom Butler and Logan Ryan will look to hold down opposing star receivers Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu Sr. Vic Beasley (15.5 sacks) will look to apply pressure to Brady and keep points off the board in hopes of a Super Bowl 51 victory, which would be the second ever Super Bowl victory for the Falcon's franchise.
It doesn't take a genius to know this will be a hard fought battle, with most players having lingering to severe injuries they will grit through just to put the team on their back for this last game of the season. Atlanta brings the high-powered caliber offense, with a copious amount of weapons to keep the Patriots guessing, but New England brings the better than expected defense that will look to claim them yet another championship under the tutelage of team owner Robert Kraft.
As of 2:30 p.m. on Super Bowl sunday, ESPN has New England at a 55.6% chance to take home the hardware, countered by Atlanta's 44.4% chance. The spread is also -3 in New Englands favor, with the over/under sitting at 58, as analysts have suspected and projected through the published over/under that this will be a rather high scoring contest between the two potent offenses.
Super Bowl 51 Prediction: New England 31, Atlanta 38
The New England Patriots (14-2) are seeking their franchises fifth Super Bowl victory, and their first since 2015, when they swiftly defeated the Seattle Seahawks in the final seconds, edging out Russell Wilson, Marshawn Lynch and the Legion of Boom 28-24. Tom Brady himself is looking to make up for his two Super Bowl losses to the New York Giants by burying Matt Ryan and the Falcons this evening, in what will feature the NFL's two highest scoring offenses. Since returning from his Deflate Gate four game suspension, Brady's offense has averaged over 30 points per game, while inflating LeGarrette Blount's 18 rushing TD's and Julian Edelman's 1,106 receiving yards this season. The Patriots offense has been nothing short of excellent, spearheaded by Brady himself, throwing 28 TD's to only two interceptions, completing 67.4% of his passes, which is all good for an elite 82.8 QBR. New England scored (441) and averaged per game (27.6) the third most points in the league this season, only trailing New Orleans and Atlanta. New England ranked seventh overall in rush yards per game with 117.0, but were outdone by Atlanta, who ranked fifth overall for a mere three and a half more yards (120.5) per game.
On the flip side of the things, New England has drastically distanced itself from Atlanta in terms of defensive artistry, ranking eighth in the league total yards given up all season, while Atlanta sits at twenty-fifth. New England was the best in the league in limiting opposing offenses from not only reaching the red zone, but crossing the goal line; the Patriots halted opponents to 15.6 points scored per game, which was two points better than the second best team in the league, the New York Giants. Atlanta once again sits at the bottom of the pile, ranking twenty-seventh and allowing 25.4 points per game this season.
The Atlanta Falcons (11-5) offensively sit as the most heralded and complete offense in football this season. Yes, Tom Brady is craft and quite good, but many would argue that 2017 NFL MVP Matt Ryan unseated Brady for best performing quarterback this season. Ryan, 31, and a former Boston College product, passed for 4,944 yards, 38 TD's to seven interceptions, completed 69.9% of his attempts, and edged Brady out for a better QBR of 83.1. Ryan was helped by top-three league wideout Julio Jones, who is dealing with torn tendons in his foot in the playoffs, thus somehow put up 180 receiving yards and two touchdowns last game against the Packers. Jones caught 83 balls for 1,409 yards and 6 TD's, marking himself as one of the elite players in the NFL. The Atlanta offense remained balanced with Devonta Freeman leading the charge at running back, and breaking tackles and ankles this year for 1,079 rushing yards to go along with 11 rushing TD's. This offense ranked first in points for (33.8), third in passing yards per game (295.3) and fifth in rushing yards per game, good enough to be championed the best offense in the league this season.
Head Coach Bill Belichick will have his hands full today with Atlanta's offense, as Malcom Butler and Logan Ryan will look to hold down opposing star receivers Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu Sr. Vic Beasley (15.5 sacks) will look to apply pressure to Brady and keep points off the board in hopes of a Super Bowl 51 victory, which would be the second ever Super Bowl victory for the Falcon's franchise.
It doesn't take a genius to know this will be a hard fought battle, with most players having lingering to severe injuries they will grit through just to put the team on their back for this last game of the season. Atlanta brings the high-powered caliber offense, with a copious amount of weapons to keep the Patriots guessing, but New England brings the better than expected defense that will look to claim them yet another championship under the tutelage of team owner Robert Kraft.
As of 2:30 p.m. on Super Bowl sunday, ESPN has New England at a 55.6% chance to take home the hardware, countered by Atlanta's 44.4% chance. The spread is also -3 in New Englands favor, with the over/under sitting at 58, as analysts have suspected and projected through the published over/under that this will be a rather high scoring contest between the two potent offenses.
Super Bowl 51 Prediction: New England 31, Atlanta 38
Thursday, January 19, 2017
Musical Chairs and Revolving Doors of NFL QB's
As the 2016-2017 NFL regular season proved to be, quite a few teams experienced a game of musical chairs when it came to naming or finding a starting quarterback. In a league where most offensive play is headlined by able quarterbacks escaping the pocket when under pressure and launching sixty yard bombs in the end zone, many of the QB's on this list below will have one common trait: never reaching their potential. All have or had the skills to become the franchise QB for their respective organizations, but a mixture of injuries, stale coaching, poor receiving corps, or underwhelming development at the position have attributed to the plodding growth and evolution of these talent game callers. This list below is purely speculative and subjective criticism for some of the NFL's more statistically disappointing QB's up to this point; who knows, maybe reluctantly one of these guys will be a fresh face on your teams QB depth chart next season.
Chicago Bears - Starter: Jay Cutler Backup: Brian Hoyer, Matt Barkley
The Chicago Bears still have the dreaded contract of cannon armed Jay Cutler, who has completely underwhelmed since being acquired in a blockbuster trade back in 2009. Brian Hoyer looked like the perfect stopgap for a team that was fading quickly, and a bridge between drafting and preparing an NFL prospect, and keeping the team competitive. Hoyer, unfortunately, went down with a broken arm during the season, and Chicago started Cutler until they couldn't anymore. Once Cutler sustained a thumb injury, the starting reigns were handed over to the former unproven USC product Matt Barkley, who overall performed as expected: mediocre. In seven games in relief of Cutler and Hoyer, the Trojan would throw for 1,611 yards, complete 59.7% of his passes, average 7.46 yards per attempt, and top off by threading eight passes for touchdowns, while tossing 14 for interceptions. In the perfect world, Bears head coach John Fox would've had better options than Hoyer and Barkley to start after Cutler, but the more alarming realization should be that when healthy this past year, Cutler put up a 27.8 QBR in his five games he did play. Now, for an NFL Quarterback, a 50 QBR represents the midway point line when it comes to rating his overall performance and poise in the pocket, but Cutler didn't even make it halfway, as he was 22.2 below league average. Big Jay would only throw for 4,000+ yards once in high career, and that was the season that Denver sent him to Chicago for Kyle Orton, and a first round and third pick in the NFL Draft. Also necessary to mention, Cutler has never posted a single season passer rating (out of 158.3) above 93.0 in a single season. After a 2014 season that saw him count $38MM agains the dead salary cap, and 2015 saw him at $29MM, with the upcoming season, Cutler's set to count $2MM against the dead salary cap, and the time has finally come for Cutler to pack his bags, and take his lack of talent elsewhere in the league, or perhaps even up to the CFL where misfit toys and backfires like Cutler can play for fun.
Houston Texans - Starter: Brock Osweiler Backup: Tom Savage
Oh boy, this case just reeks. You can ask NFL guru Chance Eaton and he'll tell you as best as anyone; Brock Osweiler is downright terrible. There hypothetically should be a huge sign near Osweiller that warns all about his inability to scan the field, hold onto the ball way too long, and throw head scratching picks in a bloated secondary where any average NFL QB wouldn't have tossed a pigskin anywhere near. He made encouraging strides in the 2015 season, backing up and filling in for the injured Peyton Manning, where he would register a 61.8 completions percentage, throw 10 TD-6 INT's, and elevate his game to the tune of an 86.4 passer rating. He wasn't perfect, but he was a rookie passer technically, starting for the first real time in his NFL career. Coming off that solid season in Denver, the Houston Texans decided upon the move to offer Osweiler a 4-year $72MM deal to revitalize an offense that had also acquired star RB Lamar Miller. So, to sum it up quickly, Osweiler got completely torched by the league this year, making him look like a kid that should stick to making sand castles in his little sandbox back home. The stats are like nails on a chalk board, and have caused many to cringe back in absolute horror, but Brock completed 59.0% of his passes, threw for 2,957 yards, averaged 5.8 yards per attempt, had a 15-16 touchdown to interception ratio, and for the life of him, couldn't get an offense anywhere but sputtering in the gameday light. I say cut him now! Of course its not that easy, and if it were then you and I would be front office personnel, but with Osweiler set to count $25MM in dead salary cap if released this offseason, its a sure bet he returns to Bill O'Brien's team next season, where the staff will look to help Osweiler transform into at least an average NFL QB, especially considering he gets paid $18MM a season. By all accounts, stay away from him in fantasy leagues, and I would urge you not to watch his games played as his pure ghastly and unspeakable play will most likely cause you to gag, and did I mention it's contagious?
Cleveland Browns - Starter: Robert Griffin III Backup: Cody Kessler, Josh McCown, Kevin Hogan
These guys completely abused the privilege of having a QB in the first place, as they went through four different passers during the past season. RG3 is going to fall into the same group as Cutler; he had the makings of an elite QB scrambling option with as strong as anyone in the league, and even at the time of being drafted, was proclaimed as some as the safer bet to have a successful longterm NFL career than Colts QB Andrew Luck. Well, time would prove those optimistic comments where unfortunately wrong, and not wrong by a small amount, those expectations are completely irrelevant and too much to ask for at this point in RG3's career. Now yes, he did suffer a horrific ACL tear, and he was on point up until that injury, but the guy should at least know how to thread the needle and deliver strikes to receivers on a regular basis if he is no longer capable of breaking out monstrous runs. We've got a meltdown alert here, as Griffin was no better this season, where his QBR was 7.8 below average, and he was only able to throw two TD passes in five games played. The real guy to have watched for in this nightmare of a year for Browns fans was Kody Kessler, yet another former USC product. He completed 65.6% of his passes, averaged 7.08 yards per attempt, and threw six TD's to only two interceptions, while coming in at a 92.3 passer rating. Hey, Hue Jackson, I think we've found the guy! Kessler set fire in his last in the NCAA, throwing 29 darts for TD's, completing 66.8% of his passes, and racking up 3,536 passing yards. Development for a QB isn't a one and done, and keeping Josh McCown on the roster may work to both Kessler and the Browns advantage when it comes down to reaching full potential for Kessler. McCown is a storied, knowledgable and successful QB, and with that he is more than capable of showing Kessler how to maximize his potential and become a successful starting QB in the NFL. Unless they draft another QB in this years draft, odds are Kessler will come into next season with the starting his to lose, so look for some improvements on his part, and on the 1-15 Browns part as well.
New York Jets - Starter: Ryan Fitzpatrick Backup: Bryce Petty, Geno Smith, Christian Hackenberg
Already written off as a wasted pick, we'll hit right off on Hackenberg as multiple personnel within the Jets organization have no faith in "Hack" developing as such was projected. But, in 2015, Fitzpatrick was a ray of sunlight the Jets really wish had returned this past season, as Fitz helped Brandon Marshall put up a career season and help resurrect a sputtering Jets offense. He would throw 31 TD's to 15 INT's, and was good for a 66.7 QBR, which put him up as one of the better QB's in the league at the time. For much of his career, Fitzpatrick has been a place holder QB for a lot of teams; six teams to be exact, and never lasting more than four season with anyone of them. This past year though was the ultimate disaster for Fitzpatrick, most directly highlighted by his six interception game against the Kansas City Chiefs, where he was bad enough to completely only 20 of his 44 attempts and finish that game out with a 5.0 QBR. That game pretty much summed up how Fitzpatrick's entire season would go on, but he would sprinkle in a few encourage starts in between his mess of a year. Only signed to a one-year deal this past offseason, it's obvious Fitzpatrick won't be coming back, and if he'll be coming back to any NFL team next season. Interestingly, Fitz never threw more than 2 TD passes in a game this past season, as opposed to him throwing three or more TD passes in a game three separate times in his highlight 2015 season with Gang Green. Most, if not all competent NFL front office personnel would see that the Jets have to start over from block one with the QB crew they have, as Fitzpatrick and Geno Smith will be leaving as free agents this upcoming offseason, and Hack will remain as dead weight on a team that desperately searches for their future franchise passer. Not to be forgotten, fill in Bryce Petty suited up for some games this past year, losing all but one of his six starts, winning over the San Fransisco 23-17 in overtime, in what was probably Petty's best performance of the season. Petty completed 56.4% of his passes, and tossed seven interceptions in his six games played. It's hard to put a finger on any of the current Jets QB's leading the charge for the team in the future, so a different crew of game callers is expected to be called in next year in hopes of a better result than their 5-11 record this past seaosn.
There's no doubt the NFL is a hard league to play in, as it is the best stage for players with skills to compete at on all of Earth. There will be great turnaround for many teams this offseason in hopes of finding a better and more durable option at the QB position, especially considering the position demands such leadership and determination skills that it is intrinsic to have at least a league average QB in hopes of putting up a .500 season. Soon enough, we'll be looking at all other positions on the field and identifying the strengths and weaknesses for teams at each spot coming up over the offseason.
Chicago Bears - Starter: Jay Cutler Backup: Brian Hoyer, Matt Barkley
The Chicago Bears still have the dreaded contract of cannon armed Jay Cutler, who has completely underwhelmed since being acquired in a blockbuster trade back in 2009. Brian Hoyer looked like the perfect stopgap for a team that was fading quickly, and a bridge between drafting and preparing an NFL prospect, and keeping the team competitive. Hoyer, unfortunately, went down with a broken arm during the season, and Chicago started Cutler until they couldn't anymore. Once Cutler sustained a thumb injury, the starting reigns were handed over to the former unproven USC product Matt Barkley, who overall performed as expected: mediocre. In seven games in relief of Cutler and Hoyer, the Trojan would throw for 1,611 yards, complete 59.7% of his passes, average 7.46 yards per attempt, and top off by threading eight passes for touchdowns, while tossing 14 for interceptions. In the perfect world, Bears head coach John Fox would've had better options than Hoyer and Barkley to start after Cutler, but the more alarming realization should be that when healthy this past year, Cutler put up a 27.8 QBR in his five games he did play. Now, for an NFL Quarterback, a 50 QBR represents the midway point line when it comes to rating his overall performance and poise in the pocket, but Cutler didn't even make it halfway, as he was 22.2 below league average. Big Jay would only throw for 4,000+ yards once in high career, and that was the season that Denver sent him to Chicago for Kyle Orton, and a first round and third pick in the NFL Draft. Also necessary to mention, Cutler has never posted a single season passer rating (out of 158.3) above 93.0 in a single season. After a 2014 season that saw him count $38MM agains the dead salary cap, and 2015 saw him at $29MM, with the upcoming season, Cutler's set to count $2MM against the dead salary cap, and the time has finally come for Cutler to pack his bags, and take his lack of talent elsewhere in the league, or perhaps even up to the CFL where misfit toys and backfires like Cutler can play for fun.
Houston Texans - Starter: Brock Osweiler Backup: Tom Savage
Oh boy, this case just reeks. You can ask NFL guru Chance Eaton and he'll tell you as best as anyone; Brock Osweiler is downright terrible. There hypothetically should be a huge sign near Osweiller that warns all about his inability to scan the field, hold onto the ball way too long, and throw head scratching picks in a bloated secondary where any average NFL QB wouldn't have tossed a pigskin anywhere near. He made encouraging strides in the 2015 season, backing up and filling in for the injured Peyton Manning, where he would register a 61.8 completions percentage, throw 10 TD-6 INT's, and elevate his game to the tune of an 86.4 passer rating. He wasn't perfect, but he was a rookie passer technically, starting for the first real time in his NFL career. Coming off that solid season in Denver, the Houston Texans decided upon the move to offer Osweiler a 4-year $72MM deal to revitalize an offense that had also acquired star RB Lamar Miller. So, to sum it up quickly, Osweiler got completely torched by the league this year, making him look like a kid that should stick to making sand castles in his little sandbox back home. The stats are like nails on a chalk board, and have caused many to cringe back in absolute horror, but Brock completed 59.0% of his passes, threw for 2,957 yards, averaged 5.8 yards per attempt, had a 15-16 touchdown to interception ratio, and for the life of him, couldn't get an offense anywhere but sputtering in the gameday light. I say cut him now! Of course its not that easy, and if it were then you and I would be front office personnel, but with Osweiler set to count $25MM in dead salary cap if released this offseason, its a sure bet he returns to Bill O'Brien's team next season, where the staff will look to help Osweiler transform into at least an average NFL QB, especially considering he gets paid $18MM a season. By all accounts, stay away from him in fantasy leagues, and I would urge you not to watch his games played as his pure ghastly and unspeakable play will most likely cause you to gag, and did I mention it's contagious?
Cleveland Browns - Starter: Robert Griffin III Backup: Cody Kessler, Josh McCown, Kevin Hogan
These guys completely abused the privilege of having a QB in the first place, as they went through four different passers during the past season. RG3 is going to fall into the same group as Cutler; he had the makings of an elite QB scrambling option with as strong as anyone in the league, and even at the time of being drafted, was proclaimed as some as the safer bet to have a successful longterm NFL career than Colts QB Andrew Luck. Well, time would prove those optimistic comments where unfortunately wrong, and not wrong by a small amount, those expectations are completely irrelevant and too much to ask for at this point in RG3's career. Now yes, he did suffer a horrific ACL tear, and he was on point up until that injury, but the guy should at least know how to thread the needle and deliver strikes to receivers on a regular basis if he is no longer capable of breaking out monstrous runs. We've got a meltdown alert here, as Griffin was no better this season, where his QBR was 7.8 below average, and he was only able to throw two TD passes in five games played. The real guy to have watched for in this nightmare of a year for Browns fans was Kody Kessler, yet another former USC product. He completed 65.6% of his passes, averaged 7.08 yards per attempt, and threw six TD's to only two interceptions, while coming in at a 92.3 passer rating. Hey, Hue Jackson, I think we've found the guy! Kessler set fire in his last in the NCAA, throwing 29 darts for TD's, completing 66.8% of his passes, and racking up 3,536 passing yards. Development for a QB isn't a one and done, and keeping Josh McCown on the roster may work to both Kessler and the Browns advantage when it comes down to reaching full potential for Kessler. McCown is a storied, knowledgable and successful QB, and with that he is more than capable of showing Kessler how to maximize his potential and become a successful starting QB in the NFL. Unless they draft another QB in this years draft, odds are Kessler will come into next season with the starting his to lose, so look for some improvements on his part, and on the 1-15 Browns part as well.
New York Jets - Starter: Ryan Fitzpatrick Backup: Bryce Petty, Geno Smith, Christian Hackenberg
Already written off as a wasted pick, we'll hit right off on Hackenberg as multiple personnel within the Jets organization have no faith in "Hack" developing as such was projected. But, in 2015, Fitzpatrick was a ray of sunlight the Jets really wish had returned this past season, as Fitz helped Brandon Marshall put up a career season and help resurrect a sputtering Jets offense. He would throw 31 TD's to 15 INT's, and was good for a 66.7 QBR, which put him up as one of the better QB's in the league at the time. For much of his career, Fitzpatrick has been a place holder QB for a lot of teams; six teams to be exact, and never lasting more than four season with anyone of them. This past year though was the ultimate disaster for Fitzpatrick, most directly highlighted by his six interception game against the Kansas City Chiefs, where he was bad enough to completely only 20 of his 44 attempts and finish that game out with a 5.0 QBR. That game pretty much summed up how Fitzpatrick's entire season would go on, but he would sprinkle in a few encourage starts in between his mess of a year. Only signed to a one-year deal this past offseason, it's obvious Fitzpatrick won't be coming back, and if he'll be coming back to any NFL team next season. Interestingly, Fitz never threw more than 2 TD passes in a game this past season, as opposed to him throwing three or more TD passes in a game three separate times in his highlight 2015 season with Gang Green. Most, if not all competent NFL front office personnel would see that the Jets have to start over from block one with the QB crew they have, as Fitzpatrick and Geno Smith will be leaving as free agents this upcoming offseason, and Hack will remain as dead weight on a team that desperately searches for their future franchise passer. Not to be forgotten, fill in Bryce Petty suited up for some games this past year, losing all but one of his six starts, winning over the San Fransisco 23-17 in overtime, in what was probably Petty's best performance of the season. Petty completed 56.4% of his passes, and tossed seven interceptions in his six games played. It's hard to put a finger on any of the current Jets QB's leading the charge for the team in the future, so a different crew of game callers is expected to be called in next year in hopes of a better result than their 5-11 record this past seaosn.
There's no doubt the NFL is a hard league to play in, as it is the best stage for players with skills to compete at on all of Earth. There will be great turnaround for many teams this offseason in hopes of finding a better and more durable option at the QB position, especially considering the position demands such leadership and determination skills that it is intrinsic to have at least a league average QB in hopes of putting up a .500 season. Soon enough, we'll be looking at all other positions on the field and identifying the strengths and weaknesses for teams at each spot coming up over the offseason.
Wednesday, January 18, 2017
Slugger Jose Bautista Agrees to 1-year $18MM Deal Returning to Blue Jays
Wednesday January 18th - This just goes to show how anemically slow the market has developed for Bautista and other power threats on the open market this winter. Originally looking to lock in a deal in excess of 4 years and $100MM reportedly, Bautista had to settle on the fact that he wasn't going to get the long term deal he had rightfully so looked to demand after putting together 249 homeruns, a .387 OBP, 542 SLG, and 151 OPS+, better than 51% of the league over the span of 2010-2016.
It's a bit surprising in the sense that Bautista had to wait this long to find work from an employer, but it would appear the market has officially set its price and standard for one dimensional power sluggers in a day and age where homerun hitters are becoming more of a common thread. There's no argument that at the age of 36, the right fielder still brings a thundering bat that even in a down year last season, sported a .217 isolated slugging percentage, which is drastically better than the .140 league average.
It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that time is, and was not, on Bautista's side when testing the waters this winter. Seeking a lucrative deal before the 2016 season even began, injuries soured Bautista's season and inevitably blocked his earning power this winter. Many experts had predicted he would have to settle for a one year deal to build back up his case for a long term pact from the right organization, but the clock is ticking, and Bautista is running out of time to turn skeptics into believers.
Edwin Encarnacion, a teammate of Bautista last year and since 2009, equally saw his case stunned and pushed back due to the simple fact that teams are moving their priorities and resource pools towards frontline starting pitching and back-of-the-bullpen lights out aces. Bautista has done nothing short of excel in the top level of the sport ever since his breakout year in 2010, but the hesitancy teams faced appeared to have outweighed their ultimate decision to offer Bautista a remunerative deal.
Age, steady decline, positional limitations, and contract demands all played a part in delaying Bautista from signing on with a team. More teams are moving towards a rotating designated hitting spot in the American League, and with Joey Bats looking to occupy most of his time in the DH hole, with some limited accessibility in right field, it was a very unappealing fit for many organizations. The latest Collective Bargaining Agreement that came to fruition this winter may have also weighed heavy on Bautista, as teams that abuse the salary cap and go over by a wide margin (greater than 10% of upcoming 190MM+ cap in 2017 season) would be faced with draft pick forfeiture, and restrictions on submitting contracts to international amateur free agents, and amateurs in the rule four draft. Spending pools and bonuses awarded to players would ultimately be limited in the market place for organizations that spend over the leagues allotted budget line, and with Bautista's prodigious asking price, teams felt better off not taking the risk.
Ultimately, it's a good move for both Bautista, and the Toronto Blue Jays, who have reclaimed their longtime slugger on a short term contract, which has options attached for the 2018 and 2019 seasons. Bautista will receive more than the qualifying offer extended to him, which this year came in at $17.2MM over a single season, and Bautista bested that number by an additional $800K.
Toronto is now armed with Devon Travis, Russell Martin, Josh Donaldson, and the newly minted Bautista, all of whom will look to replicate last seasons offensive breakouts. Last season, Toronto ranked 9th in runs scored (759), 4th in homeruns (221), sixth in OBP (.330), and second in walks (632) as an entire team, which propelled them as one of the leagues leading offenses. With Bautista back in the mix, Toronto has an even better chance to reproduce those numbers, and help their offensive outbursts turn into victories.
One of the premier sluggers in the sport over the past half-decade, if Bautista is a bright spot in manager John Gibbons lineup this season, and he still shows he's more than capable in right field, it isn't impossible to leave out another try at the free agent market again next winter. Posting monstrous power numbers will only help Bautista appreciate in value, but his ability to play the field and stay healthy will be closely examined underneath a microscope by many throughout much of the season. It's fair to speculate that if things go south, Bautista could always be flipped to a contender at the non-waiver trade deadline at the end of July as a sturdy veteran presence, and lefty-masher.
With one of the top bats finally plucked off the board, it'll be interesting to see how the likes of Mark Trumbo and Chris Carter fare now that the storied Bautista has reclaimed his spot in Toronto's fearsome lineup.
It's a bit surprising in the sense that Bautista had to wait this long to find work from an employer, but it would appear the market has officially set its price and standard for one dimensional power sluggers in a day and age where homerun hitters are becoming more of a common thread. There's no argument that at the age of 36, the right fielder still brings a thundering bat that even in a down year last season, sported a .217 isolated slugging percentage, which is drastically better than the .140 league average.
It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that time is, and was not, on Bautista's side when testing the waters this winter. Seeking a lucrative deal before the 2016 season even began, injuries soured Bautista's season and inevitably blocked his earning power this winter. Many experts had predicted he would have to settle for a one year deal to build back up his case for a long term pact from the right organization, but the clock is ticking, and Bautista is running out of time to turn skeptics into believers.
Edwin Encarnacion, a teammate of Bautista last year and since 2009, equally saw his case stunned and pushed back due to the simple fact that teams are moving their priorities and resource pools towards frontline starting pitching and back-of-the-bullpen lights out aces. Bautista has done nothing short of excel in the top level of the sport ever since his breakout year in 2010, but the hesitancy teams faced appeared to have outweighed their ultimate decision to offer Bautista a remunerative deal.
Age, steady decline, positional limitations, and contract demands all played a part in delaying Bautista from signing on with a team. More teams are moving towards a rotating designated hitting spot in the American League, and with Joey Bats looking to occupy most of his time in the DH hole, with some limited accessibility in right field, it was a very unappealing fit for many organizations. The latest Collective Bargaining Agreement that came to fruition this winter may have also weighed heavy on Bautista, as teams that abuse the salary cap and go over by a wide margin (greater than 10% of upcoming 190MM+ cap in 2017 season) would be faced with draft pick forfeiture, and restrictions on submitting contracts to international amateur free agents, and amateurs in the rule four draft. Spending pools and bonuses awarded to players would ultimately be limited in the market place for organizations that spend over the leagues allotted budget line, and with Bautista's prodigious asking price, teams felt better off not taking the risk.
Ultimately, it's a good move for both Bautista, and the Toronto Blue Jays, who have reclaimed their longtime slugger on a short term contract, which has options attached for the 2018 and 2019 seasons. Bautista will receive more than the qualifying offer extended to him, which this year came in at $17.2MM over a single season, and Bautista bested that number by an additional $800K.
Toronto is now armed with Devon Travis, Russell Martin, Josh Donaldson, and the newly minted Bautista, all of whom will look to replicate last seasons offensive breakouts. Last season, Toronto ranked 9th in runs scored (759), 4th in homeruns (221), sixth in OBP (.330), and second in walks (632) as an entire team, which propelled them as one of the leagues leading offenses. With Bautista back in the mix, Toronto has an even better chance to reproduce those numbers, and help their offensive outbursts turn into victories.
One of the premier sluggers in the sport over the past half-decade, if Bautista is a bright spot in manager John Gibbons lineup this season, and he still shows he's more than capable in right field, it isn't impossible to leave out another try at the free agent market again next winter. Posting monstrous power numbers will only help Bautista appreciate in value, but his ability to play the field and stay healthy will be closely examined underneath a microscope by many throughout much of the season. It's fair to speculate that if things go south, Bautista could always be flipped to a contender at the non-waiver trade deadline at the end of July as a sturdy veteran presence, and lefty-masher.
With one of the top bats finally plucked off the board, it'll be interesting to see how the likes of Mark Trumbo and Chris Carter fare now that the storied Bautista has reclaimed his spot in Toronto's fearsome lineup.
Super Bowl Possibilities and Predictions
Currently we have four teams in the Super Bowl picture, three are teams that have proven to be playoff contenders and one that is dominant in offense passing this past regular season.
In making this list, I will be listing the possible match ups and winners for Super Bowl LI. The order in which the matches appear are irrelevant, I am not listing them based off of chances for winning.
1) Pittsburgh VS Atlanta
Winner: Pittsburgh
This matchup is unique, mainly because we do not have accurate data for the Falcons Postseason plays. However, Big Ben has proven himself twice in the Super Bowl, and with Le'veon Bell Running circles around ever defense I don't see the Falcons winning this shootout. Steelers defense plays hard a rough, often to the dismay of referees and players alike. They are penalty prone, but they do intimidate the competition. The last time the Steelers and Falcons met was in 2015, with Pittsburgh winning by seven. With Matt Ryan, a great quarterback who has never proven himself in the playoffs, the Falcons do not have the horses to pull the weight.
2) Pittsburgh VS Green Bay
Winner: Green Bay
A matchup of two of the best quarterbacks currently in this league, Aaron Rodgers and Ben Roethlisberger. For this matchup I have to go with Aaron Rodgers, with his two wins over the Cowboys and the Giants he showed why he is the best quarterback in the NFL. As mentioned above, Pittsburgh's defense is fearsome, but not the defense to beat a cool headed Aaron Rodgers, who can punish over-aggression. In last week's Cowboys game Aaron Rodgers drew two penalties on Dallas for illegal formation, rushing the snap while Dallas was substituting. This is an experienced quarterback who knows what to do and is borderline unstoppable in this league. Pittsburgh's offense is not the offense we have been told about. Against Kansas, Bell and Roethlisberger did not score a single touchdown, this performance is not going to cut it in the playoffs. While Rodgers is playing the best he ever has.
3) New England VS Atlanta
Winner: New England
Once again, Matty Ice and Company are not a true playoff team, the last time the Falcons went to the playoffs was six years ago, going as far as the NFC Championship before losing to the 49ers. I think what is most likely to happen is they will go down the same as the 2015 Carolina Panthers, or the 2004 Atlanta Falcons. A record breaking team with a lot of great talent who could not get it down in the playoffs. Compare this with Tom Terrific and Darth Lord of Football Bill Belichick, who have been to the AFC Championship 10 times in the last 16 years, it becomes clear the experience and knowhow lie with the Patriots. Not to mention the Patriots Defense who have allowed the least number of points per game in all the NFL. Julio Jones, and Matt Ryan will not be the high scorers in this game, unlike the other twelve games where they came away with victories. Taking away their scoring potential with the Patriots defense will severely weaken the Falcons' chances of winning. And as Tom has shown us this year, he is capable of dominating the best defenses in the NFL.
4) New England VS Green Bay
Winner: New England
I think when it comes to this decade of football, this will be the biggest Super Bowl matchup. The storylines are so perfect, even if the NFL was staged, the plot couldn't be better. Two of the most dominant Quarterbacks in the league who have never met in a Super Bowl coming head to head. Should Tom Brady win, he becomes the GOAT unanimously! If Rodgers wins, then he becomes the new GOAT, and will be viewed at the same caliber as Brady and Montana. Unfortunately, Superbowls are not won by offenses alone, I would argue defense won the Super Bowl for the Giants in 2007, and 2011. It certainly won it for the Broncos and Seahawks. And with that bit of information, the Patriots chances of winning are much higher. Green Bay does not have a reliable defense, they do not have the play makers that New England does. Clinton-Dix in the secondary is not match for a Devin McCourty, and Clay Matthews as outside linebacker does not have the type of pass denial Hightower has. In points allowed per game, New England comes out number one with 15.6 points a game, Green Bay comes in 21st with 24.3. That is a difference of 8.7 points a game. Not to mention the Packers gave up 30+ points to Dallas this past week. There are a few rules in Superbowls, if the Patriots are in it, bet on them, unless the Giants are in it as well.
In making this list, I will be listing the possible match ups and winners for Super Bowl LI. The order in which the matches appear are irrelevant, I am not listing them based off of chances for winning.
1) Pittsburgh VS Atlanta
Winner: Pittsburgh
This matchup is unique, mainly because we do not have accurate data for the Falcons Postseason plays. However, Big Ben has proven himself twice in the Super Bowl, and with Le'veon Bell Running circles around ever defense I don't see the Falcons winning this shootout. Steelers defense plays hard a rough, often to the dismay of referees and players alike. They are penalty prone, but they do intimidate the competition. The last time the Steelers and Falcons met was in 2015, with Pittsburgh winning by seven. With Matt Ryan, a great quarterback who has never proven himself in the playoffs, the Falcons do not have the horses to pull the weight.
2) Pittsburgh VS Green Bay
Winner: Green Bay
A matchup of two of the best quarterbacks currently in this league, Aaron Rodgers and Ben Roethlisberger. For this matchup I have to go with Aaron Rodgers, with his two wins over the Cowboys and the Giants he showed why he is the best quarterback in the NFL. As mentioned above, Pittsburgh's defense is fearsome, but not the defense to beat a cool headed Aaron Rodgers, who can punish over-aggression. In last week's Cowboys game Aaron Rodgers drew two penalties on Dallas for illegal formation, rushing the snap while Dallas was substituting. This is an experienced quarterback who knows what to do and is borderline unstoppable in this league. Pittsburgh's offense is not the offense we have been told about. Against Kansas, Bell and Roethlisberger did not score a single touchdown, this performance is not going to cut it in the playoffs. While Rodgers is playing the best he ever has.
3) New England VS Atlanta
Winner: New England
Once again, Matty Ice and Company are not a true playoff team, the last time the Falcons went to the playoffs was six years ago, going as far as the NFC Championship before losing to the 49ers. I think what is most likely to happen is they will go down the same as the 2015 Carolina Panthers, or the 2004 Atlanta Falcons. A record breaking team with a lot of great talent who could not get it down in the playoffs. Compare this with Tom Terrific and Darth Lord of Football Bill Belichick, who have been to the AFC Championship 10 times in the last 16 years, it becomes clear the experience and knowhow lie with the Patriots. Not to mention the Patriots Defense who have allowed the least number of points per game in all the NFL. Julio Jones, and Matt Ryan will not be the high scorers in this game, unlike the other twelve games where they came away with victories. Taking away their scoring potential with the Patriots defense will severely weaken the Falcons' chances of winning. And as Tom has shown us this year, he is capable of dominating the best defenses in the NFL.
4) New England VS Green Bay
Winner: New England
I think when it comes to this decade of football, this will be the biggest Super Bowl matchup. The storylines are so perfect, even if the NFL was staged, the plot couldn't be better. Two of the most dominant Quarterbacks in the league who have never met in a Super Bowl coming head to head. Should Tom Brady win, he becomes the GOAT unanimously! If Rodgers wins, then he becomes the new GOAT, and will be viewed at the same caliber as Brady and Montana. Unfortunately, Superbowls are not won by offenses alone, I would argue defense won the Super Bowl for the Giants in 2007, and 2011. It certainly won it for the Broncos and Seahawks. And with that bit of information, the Patriots chances of winning are much higher. Green Bay does not have a reliable defense, they do not have the play makers that New England does. Clinton-Dix in the secondary is not match for a Devin McCourty, and Clay Matthews as outside linebacker does not have the type of pass denial Hightower has. In points allowed per game, New England comes out number one with 15.6 points a game, Green Bay comes in 21st with 24.3. That is a difference of 8.7 points a game. Not to mention the Packers gave up 30+ points to Dallas this past week. There are a few rules in Superbowls, if the Patriots are in it, bet on them, unless the Giants are in it as well.
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